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Mike discusses the five biggest fantasy baseball surprises of the 2024 MLB season and what to expect from those players moving forward. Will they keep up the great start?
As we pass the midway point in June, the All-Star break is rapidly approaching. MLB teams have played nearly 75 games each, leaving us a good chunk of the way through the season.
There have been plenty of fantasy disappointments this year, with injuries playing a part in some of them. However, there have also been some players who have either far exceeded their draft capital or thrived since being an early-season waiver-wire addition.
Let’s look at the five biggest surprises of the season and discuss what to expect from each player moving forward.
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Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have one of the best records in baseball and Suarez is one of the main reasons why. Last season, he recorded a 4.18 ERA and a 3.90 FIP over 22 starts. Across his first 14 outings this season, he has a 1.77 ERA and a 2.60 FIP.
Two stats jump out in favor of Suarez continuing to perform well. He has lowered his walk rate to 5.7 percent, which is the lowest mark of his career. His strikeout rate is 27.5 percent, which is more than five percentage points higher than his career mark.
Ranger Suarez, Dirty 75mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/7cb4U7kt1F
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 15, 2024
Asking any pitcher to maintain an ERA below 2.00 for an entire season is not realistic. However, with his improved command and higher strikeout upside, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t finish with an ERA well below 3.00. He has given up just 57 hits over 86.1 innings, with opponents only recording a 34.1 percent hard-hit rate against him.
Luis Gil, New York Yankees
The season started off on a sour note for the Yankees with Gerrit Cole (elbow) going down in spring training. He won the American League Cy Young Award last year and has been one of the most durable pitchers in all of baseball. For his career, he has logged at least 200 innings in a season six times.
Despite logging a total of just four innings in the minors last season because of Tommy John surgery, Gil was tabbed as the Yankees' fifth starter heading into the season. Not only has he held his own, but he has arguably become their staff ace. Over 14 starts, he has a 2.03 ERA, 3.06 FIP, and a 0.98 WHIP. He has given up just 39 hits over 80 innings, while also posting a 30.4 percent strikeout rate.
Cole is set to return from injury Wednesday, but with Clarke Schmidt (lat) now on the shelf, Gil will remain in the Yankees rotation. He has the stuff to continue to be a dominant starter. The only question with him is how many innings the Yankees will let him throw in his return from surgery. Once Schmidt returns, Gil could shift to the bullpen. However, Schmidt could be out until at least late July, setting up Gil with plenty of more opportunities to shine.
Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox
Crochet made 13 appearances out of the bullpen for the White Sox last season, logging just 12.2 innings. Prior to this year, all 72 of his career appearances in the majors had come out of the bullpen. However, with the White Sox rebuilding and desperate for arms within their rotation, Crochet was given a chance to start from the outset.
Crochet has been stellar in a starting role, posting a 3.16 ERA and an even better 2.72 FIP. Not only is his WHIP excellent at 0.90, but he has a whopping 35.7 percent strikeout rate. His Baseball Savant page is a sea of red with him ranking inside the top 90th percentile in categories including strikeout rate, whiff rate, xERA, and average fastball velocity.
Crochet has the stuff to be an ace. The concern with him is much like the concern with Gil. How many innings will the White Sox allow him to pitch? Unlike the Yankees, the White Sox have no need to push Crochet to make the playoffs. They are well out of that race, so he could get shut down at some point during the second half.
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
So far, we’ve only highlighted good surprises. We need to at least touch on one flop, which has been the performance of Carroll. He was fantasy gold last season, finishing with 25 home runs, 54 stolen bases, a .285 batting average, and a .370 wOBA. With his combination of speed and power, he went in the first half of the first round heading into many drafts this season.
Carroll has been unable to live up to the hype, hitting just two home runs to go along with his 12 stolen bases. His batting average has plummeted to .213, while his wOBA checks in at .278. His quality of contact has become an issue. Last year, he had a 7.6 percent barrel rate and a 40.9 percent hard-hit rate. This season, he has a 4.7 percent barrel rate and a 34.0 percent hard-hit rate.
Carroll recently underwent an MRI on his left side, but results came back positive, so he isn’t expected to miss much time. His strikeout rate remains in line with last season, and he has been better in terms of drawing walks. There is some time for him to turn things around, but asking him to produce at the rate that he did last season might be out of the question.
Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres
Let’s end things on a positive note with Profar. Last season, he split time between the Padres and Rockies, batting .242 with a .126 ISO and a .304 wOBA. That was pretty much in line with his career marks of a .245 batting average, .146 ISO, and .317 wOBA.
Profar returned to the Padres and has been one of their most reliable hitters. He entered Tuesday batting .321 with a .399 wOBA. He has also launched 10 home runs, which is one more than he hit all of last season. He has drawn nearly as many walks (41) as he has strikeouts (44).
Don’t expect Profar to finish the season as a .300 hitter. He has never posted a batting average higher than .278 in his career, which came in 2020 when he only played in 56 games. His .355 BABIP will likely work its way closer to his career .273 BABIP as the season wears on.
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