October 1, 2016

Cliff Clinton evaluates some unexpected sleepers and busts for week 4 of the 2016 NFL season by playing a game of fantasy football fill in the blanks.

Week 4, and it’s finally coming up Cliff Clinton. It's celebration time for those of us who spent an early round pick on Le’Veon Bell as we get to watch him tear up the field against the Kansas City Chiefs. Next week, the return of Tom Brady and Josh Gordon will feel like Christmas for owners who rolled the dice on either of the suspended duo. It’s funny that these moments coincide with the beginning of bye weeks, because there’s sort of this fantasy tide coming in and out. A team that may be limping to a 0-3 or 1-2 start may be biding their time, rather than just accepting defeat if they have a player like this on the backburner. Week 5 is more brutal than Week 4, as anyone who has gotten accustomed to the success of Christine Michael or Michael Thomas will just have to sit it out a week as they face Josh Gordon or Tom Brady.

As you begin to plot out your team and your strategy for the next few weeks, look to the waiver to see what total heartbreak awaits you, and see if you can capitalize on trading. Sure, the Eagles defense may not seem sexy on their bye week, but you lose the Seahawks and the Vikings defenses in Weeks 5 and 6 respectively. The big winners plan ahead.

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Running Back

Matt Forte will either be on my bench or will ruin my week.

It feels like just yesterday that Matt Forte was scoring three touchdowns and making everyone classified as a Forte hater look bad, and yet, Week 3 saw Matt Forte struggle. Forte and the Jets were shut down by the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Jets don’t have a much better outlook against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4. If Forte is your RB1, you may not have a better option available, but I’d be trying my best to bench him in Week 4.

Dear Christine Michael, do you like like me? I like like you this week.

There’s not much of a story here, as every fantasy analyst is expecting the Seahawks to run it down the throats of the New York Jets while Russell Wilson tries his best to heal, but it’s also a worthy reminder of how good Christine Michael has always been expected to perform. Michael has bounced from Seahawks to Cowboys to the Redskins (boy, bet you’d like to have THAT back) to the Seahawks again. He’s suddenly performing like Seattle hoped he would when they picked him in the second round, and ultimately if he can keep up solid production, he could own a majority of the running work for the rest of the year. It’s too early to tell if we are seeing a full dose of “He’s a good running back now”, but there’s a possibility.

Am I going to really start Jordan Howard in Week 4? (less than 60% ownership in Fleaflicker leagues)

This isn’t a knock on Jordan Howard; if you ended up with him, you either have the gift of a good draft, or you outbid everyone else on waivers this week. But you might be hesitant to actually use him as an RB2 or FLEX. We might be seeing a Kansas City RBs in 2015 situation here, where the new guy is coming in and opening up the offense to suddenly start performing better. Defenses don’t know how to plan for Howard yet, although scouts have suggested he is a more physical runner than Jeremy Langford. Feel confident in his matchup vs the Detroit Lions this week.

Wide Receiver

Don't hand me my money back, I'm going double-or-nothing on Michael Crabtree

Michael Crabtree is due. Three games, a serious amount of production even behind Amari Cooper, and a game against Baltimore that Oakland should be able to capitalize on. Baltimore's defense has been tough on receivers this year, but Crabtree is a veteran who is capable of finding the end zone in any given week. If I’m figuring out a WR2 or a FLEX this week and I need a guy who is good for 80 yards and a possible touchdown, it’s Michael Crabtree.

I will be discarding my Odell Beckham Jr. and replacing him with two cards from the deck

In 2015, the fantasy community didn’t realize how disgustingly dominant the Denver Broncos had become until about Week 4, when they had 11 turnovers and two touchdowns… in the first four games. It feels like the Minnesota Vikings will be that defense in 2016, so do everything you can not to start your best players against them unless you have no other choice. Odell Beckham was taken out of the game in Week 3 until late in the second half, and we’ve seen that the offense can still function without him with the emergence of Sterling Shepard. If, for some reason, you can afford to lose one of the best WRs in the game, do it.

Maybe he’s born with it, maybe it’s Allen Hurns

Allen Hurns has been basically unusable in 2016, but I see this as a seriously interesting flex play vs the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4. First, Vontae Davis is back and may be holding Allen Robinson back from success. Second, it’s the London game, which (though it’s not scientifically proven) always is good for a few weird moments. A long Allen Hurns touchdown might be in the cards if the Jaguars get down to start the game..

Tight End

Parachute? I don't need no parachute, I have Cameron Brate

He’s the new kid in Tampa Bay, and he’s had all of the success that fantasy players hoped to find in… what was his name…. the guy with three names… the one who doesn’t play for them anymore? Anyhow, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense has always performed well with a competent TE, as we saw in the beginning of 2015, so Brate may be the only bright spot for this team vs the Denver Broncos.

Don't cry kids! We will bury Martellus Bennett in the yard

He’s a top 15 tight end so far in 2016… thanks to one solid game. I think the New England Patriots will make the Buffalo Bills look silly, but I can’t imagine Martellus Bennett playing a part in that except for a fluke touchdown now that the Gronk is back. Consider him a TE2 going forward, especially without Brady this week.