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Dave Ventresca's fantasy football sleepers and busts for 2025. Dave analyzes ADP for potential draft values and avoids for the fantasy football season.
When preparing for your fantasy football draft, it’s always a good starting point to see where players are currently being selected in drafts. One way you can do so is by analyzing average draft position (ADP). This can help you gain an edge in your league by identifying breakouts, values, or potential busts.
Depending on the site, ADP can fluctuate quite a bit. For our exercise today, we are going to use ADP data from the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC). These are high-stakes leagues that draft year-round and are typically full of sharp players. This will give us a good barometer of what drafts may look like come August.
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"The Price Is Right" impression and identify which players are mispriced in early fantasy football drafts.
Undervalued Fantasy Football Players
Omarion Hampton - RB, Los Angeles Chargers
NFFC ADP: 53.39 Overall
While Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty got all the headlines as the clear-cut RB1 of the incoming rookie class, Hampton isn’t that far behind.
Omarion Hampton Ranked in the 97th Percentile in Yards After Contact Per Attempt (4.3)
➖Age: 21 (Early Declare)
➖Size: 6’0, 220 lbsHampton’s Averages over the last 2 Seasons:
➖24 Touches Per Game
➖150.4 Yards Per Game
➖1.32 TD’s Per GameFuture Workhorse RB1 in the NFL pic.twitter.com/Dfd8kA8zIi
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) January 29, 2025
Hampton is an extremely talented back who excelled at the NFL Combine. It was also reported that some teams had him and Jeanty neck and neck for the RB1 title.
The Chargers are very bullish on Hampton's future and felt comfortable spending the 22nd overall pick on him in the NFL Draft. It's easy to see why. His tape is great, and he scored well in several advanced metrics. Among 154 collegiate rushers with 100+ carries, Hampton ranked 16th in PFF's elusive rating, eighth in PFF's rushing grade, and fifth in missed tackles forced (MTF).
Hampton will have to beat out former Pittsburgh Steeler Najee Harris for the RB1 job in Los Angeles. While Harris was better in Pittsburgh than many would like to admit, he is not the same caliber of player that Hampton is.
This was arguably the best landing spot for a rookie running back, and it's only a matter of time before Hampton takes over this backfield. When he does, there will be some monster games in his future, and Hampton could be a league winner.
Tucker Kraft - TE, Green Bay Packers
NFFC ADP: 118.57 Overall
Kraft enjoyed a fine sophomore season in 2024 as he posted a 50-707-7 line. It culminated with a PPR TE10 finish.
What a catch by Tucker Kraft for the TD!
📺: #HOUvsGB on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/5cpzRJLlEj— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024
With fellow tight end Luke Musgrave injured for the majority of the year, Kraft flourished as the team’s TE1. He even continued to function as the lead tight end once Musgrave returned healthy. Following Green Bay’s playoff loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, head coach Matt LaFleur praised Kraft’s improvement and stated his desire to further incorporate him into Green Bay’s offense.
Tucker Kraft Could Have Bigger Role In 2025 https://t.co/gwfiVJgXzX
— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) January 28, 2025
With the Packers lacking a true alpha WR1, they might make Kraft a more prominent part of the passing game. LaFleur recently stated in an interview that he is content with the team's wide receiver room. This suggests Green Bay may not use a high pick on a receiver. LaFleur also notably stated that he is not opposed to making a tight end the team's de facto WR1. That would be excellent news for Kraft's fantasy football value.
Green Bay did draft former Texas wide receiver Matthew Golden with the 23rd overall pick in this year's NFL Draft. This was a noteworthy selection because it marked the first time since 2002 that the team used a first-round pick on a receiver.
While this might seem like bad news for Kraft's value, Golden is a good, not great, wide receiver prospect and profiles more as a WR2. He is a very good receiver against zone coverage, but still needs refinement against man and press coverage. For 2025 at least, he will not pose as great a threat to Kraft as some want to believe.
If you are planning to wait on a tight end in your draft, Kraft should be the top name on your list. He's got a great rapport with Jordan Love, and his head coach wants him more involved in the offense. Sometimes, spotting a breakout candidate is really that simple.
Josh Downs - WR, Indianapolis Colts
NFFC ADP: 107.59 Overall
Downs' final 2024 numbers may not blow you away, but when we look under the hood, there are some good reasons to be excited about his future. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Downs registered a 30 percent targets per route run (TPRR), a 23.9 percent target share, and a 2.29 yards per route run (YPRR). Strong scores in these metrics highly correlate with fantasy football success.
The elephant in the room regarding Downs is the Colts' current quarterback situation. Anthony Richardson struggled mightily this past season, and it looks like he could be a bust. However, Colts general manager Chris Ballard hinted that the team will add competition to the quarterback position this offseason.
They eventually did, and the team signed Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million contract. Jones failed as the New York Giants starting quarterback, but he consistently targeted Malik Nabers last year. The veteran signal-caller is certainly an upgrade as a passer over what we've seen from Richardson so far.
Jones' arrival could be good news for Downs' fantasy value, as he was most successful last year when Joe Flacco was under center. Downs is a talented receiver and just needs competent quarterback play to thrive.
Touchdown Josh Downs to give Indy a 24-7 lead!
📺: #TENvsIND on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/PAQDLqNOH2— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
Indianapolis did select former Penn State tight end Tyler Warren with the 14th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. He certainly adds more target competition to an already crowded receiving corps. However, Warren is not as far along in his development as many believe and could struggle a bit in Year 1.
Downs' situation is far from ideal, but he is a solid separator and can draw targets at a high rate. His underlying data is also super encouraging. Downs is good enough to blow past his current ADP. He's one of the more underrated receivers in the league and could break out in a big way if all goes right.
Justin Fields - QB, New York Jets
NFFC ADP: 123.74 Overall
Fields posted a 4-2 record in six games as the Steelers starter last year before being benched in favor of Russell Wilson. Despite the benching, Fields still managed to provide results for fantasy gamers, thanks in large part to his legs. He scored five rushing touchdowns in his six starts and finished as a QB1 three times.
Justin Fields scores his first rushing TD with the @Steelers!
📺: #LACvsPIT on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/mHjDNMx55Y— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
For some unknown reason, the Steelers were prepared to make Fields their starting quarterback in 2025, despite benching him last year. Fields was having none of it and signed a two-year, $40 million contract with the New York Jets.
BREAKING: Jets signing QB Justin Fields to two-year, $40M deal with $30M guaranteed. (via @rapsheet, @TomPelissero) pic.twitter.com/YJVKoikwuM
— NFL (@NFL) March 10, 2025
Now that Fields has landed a starting job, he is an immediate QB1 option for fantasy owners. However, keep in mind that he has notoriously struggled as a passer and could wind up being a placeholder for a rookie quarterback.
While that is most likely true, it shouldn't affect his status as the Jets starter in 2025 unless things go sideways. Fields is a good target for managers who prefer to wait on a quarterback, as he offers gamers a very safe floor thanks to his legs. Despite all his flaws, we know for a fact he is a great fantasy option whenever he’s on the field.
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players
Patrick Mahomes - QB, Kansas City Chiefs
NFFC ADP: 41.74 Overall
While many gamers (myself included) were banking on a bounce-back season from Mahomes in 2024, the opposite proved to be true. Coming off a QB8 finish in 2023, Mahomes had an even worse 2024. He failed to break 4,000 passing yards for the first time in his career, only threw 26 touchdown passes, and finished as the overall QB11.
The Chiefs did suffer several injuries to their receiving corps. This certainly hurt Mahomes' numbers. However, the Chiefs appeared content to ride their running game and defense to victories, and this played a factor in Mahomes' disappointing 2024. While Kansas City will have several pass-catchers returning from injury to start 2025, early drafters don’t seem to be baking in the downside at Mahomes' current ADP.
Mahomes is a great potential buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues following two subpar years. However, early redraft managers are acting very stubborn when it comes to his current draft price. Mahomes still has QB1 overall upside, but it’s hard to justify spending a top-45 pick on a quarterback who hasn’t cracked 30 passing touchdowns in each of the last two years.
If he falls in your draft, then go ahead and take him. But if Mahomes is priced anything close to his current NFFC ADP in your home league, then pass and look elsewhere to fill the quarterback position.
Baker Mayfield - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFFC ADP: 47.28 Overall
Mayfield is fresh off a career year in 2024. He set career highs in passing yards and passing touchdowns and finished the year as the overall QB4.
BAKER WENT AIRBORNE FOR THE TD THEN HIT Tommy DeVito'S CELLY 😂🔥
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/0rsUF8XRdK— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 24, 2024
It was a fun ride, and it was good to see Mayfield finally live up to his status as a former No. 1 overall pick. However, his current NFFC price tag is too high when you consider he lost the play-caller who helped him reach new heights.
Last year’s offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, is gone after taking the Jacksonville Jaguars' open head-coaching position. It remains to be seen how effective Mayfield will be under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard.
In fairness to Mayfield, many had the same concerns last year when Dave Canales (Tampa Bay’s then-offensive coordinator) left the team to become the Carolina Panthers' next head coach. Mayfield turned out to be just fine without Canales.
We will have to see if Tampa Bay can hit a home run at offensive coordinator for the third straight year. At this point, though, it’s also possible that Mayfield is the one elevating the offense rather than the coordinators elevating Mayfield’s play.
Be that as it may, Mayfield’s 2024 is a clear outlier season for his career and screams regression for 2025. He is a better quarterback than many people gave him credit for, but he’s overpriced at his current ADP. Pass at his current cost on draft day, and take a different signal-caller with the same upside later in the draft.
Courtland Sutton - WR, Denver Broncos
NFFC ADP: 52.28 Overall
Sutton proved to be a massive value in drafts for fantasy gamers in 2024. He posted an 81-1,081-8 line on 135 targets and finished as the PPR WR15.
Courtland Sutton's concentration on this touchdown is ridiculouspic.twitter.com/WRY6XKcpL5
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) October 13, 2024
The seven-year veteran now faces increased target competition in the form of newly signed tight end Evan Engram. Head coach Sean Payton has previously mentioned he wants to further incorporate Marvin Mims Jr. into the offense this year.
Denver also selected running back R.J. Harvey with the 60th pick in the NFL Draft. He is a highly talented runner with untapped potential as a receiver. Given Payton’s history of utilizing running backs as receivers, it’s highly likely that Harvey will also receive plenty of targets. There seems to be a lot working against Sutton repeating last year's WR15 finish.
Historically speaking, it’s generally been a good idea to fade 29-year-old receivers coming off career years. Gamers would be wise to follow that advice, as Sutton may take a step back in 2025.
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