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In the last week without regular-season football for the rest of this year, many fantasy managers will be conducting their fantasy drafts. Zeroing in on your strategy is essential for fantasy success but don't hesitate to zig when others zag.
Fantasy managers need to be flexible and adapt in their drafts. Every draft has its own life.
I recently discussed tight ends to avoid in your draft. I tackle quarterback, the most crucial position in football, in my next installment of players to avoid in your fantasy drafts.
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Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger had a solid 2020 season, throwing for 3,803 yards, 33 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions. Roethlisberger finished as the QB14 last season. However, there are question marks surrounding him as we head into this season.
His surgically repaired right elbow led to concerning results. His 6.3 yards per attempt ranked 32nd last season and marked the lowest average of his career. He also finished 23rd among all quarterbacks with 6.5 adjusted air yards per attempt. His long ball struggles became more evident towards the end of the season.
The offensive line is a huge question mark. With three new starters on a line that was already ranked as one of the worst in the league, fantasy managers have to be concerned with the 39-year-old Roethlisberger breaking down.
The Steelers' offense will have a new look this season. Matt Canada is the new offensive coordinator after spending one season as the team's quarterback coach.
Matt Canada should make improving the league's worst running attack his priority. The Steelers invested in their running game by drafting Alabama running back Najee Harris with the 24th pick of the 2021 NFL Draft. The commitment to the running game will assist Big Ben, hopefully having fewer than 600 passing attempts like he toppled last season.
Fewer passing attempts for the Steelers will allow Big Ben a better opportunity to stay healthy and less reliance on his surgically repaired right elbow. He has a potent group of wide receivers but this will limit their fantasy impact with fewer opportunities.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Big Ben required mass volume to achieve his ranking last season. He is not getting 600+ passing attempts this season which will also coincide with touchdown regression. The Steelers' defense lost valuable pieces and will not be not as potent as years past. Look for the Steelers to be a more run-heavy team and not lead the league in team pass plays per game this season.
A suspect offensive line and a focus on the running game with electrifying rookie Najee Harris should lead to less passing volume. Combine that with his potential of being a turnover machine, the Steelers will rely on the legs of Najee Harris, not the arm of Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger will limit his fantasy success this season as a bye-week fill-in or streamer option, therefore making him a quarterback I am avoiding in my fantasy drafts.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan has averaged 290 yards per game in his last two seasons with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and finished as the 12th quarterback in fantasy scoring last season. Ryan reached those stats by leading the league in pass attempts and completions but still was just a borderline QB1 for fantasy managers.
The Falcons offense will look a lot different this season with new head coach Arthur Smith running the offense and swapping all-world wide receiver Julio Jones with their fourth overall pick, tight end Kyle Pitts.
Arthur Smith made NFL fans forget that Ryan Tannehill failed with the Miami Dolphins by raising his game to average the seventh-most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks. Of course, Smith and Tannehill had Derrick Henry to help move the chains to the point of leading the league in rushing.
Smith is a run-first offensive mind, but can he accomplish that in Atlanta? Mike Davis is serviceable, but he is not a game-changer like Derrick Henry. However, his addition will lead to a more balanced offense which should hinder any chance of Ryan leading the league in passing attempts this season. In addition, the Falcons need to keep Ryan upright. Ryan has been sacked 91 times over the last two seasons. Furthermore, they will have two new starters on the offensive line that should raise red flags for Ryan and the Falcons' offense.
The arrival of Pitts should help soften the blow of losing Julio Jones. However, Ryan still has Calvin Ridley, who finished as the WR4 and was the seventh-most targeted wide receiver last season. Ryan will look for Ridley, even more this season with the lack of weapons in the Falcons offense.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Matt Ryan is a serviceable fantasy quarterback but don't expect much more out of the inconsistent quarterback. He had one or fewer touchdowns passed in eight games last season. He also produced five 300+ yard games but still finished outside of the top 12 quarterbacks nine times last season.
Ryan carries no rushing upside, averaging only a career of 3.1 yards per game. His lack of mobility forces Ryan to achieve enormous passing numbers to reach QB1, which is unlikely in this new Falcons offense.
Ryan is the poster child for best-ball formats. He will have a few boom weeks where he will win weeks for fantasy managers. However, good luck figuring out those weeks!
A new offense with a new head coach, a rebuilt offensive line, and relying on a first-year tight end is not a recipe for fantasy success for Matt Ryan. I don't see any overall improvement for Ryan in 2021. This boom or bust quarterback is not someone I want as my starting quarterback in my fantasy lineups.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tagovaila had a terrific college career, leading Alabama to the 2018 National Championship and the 2019 title game. Everyone remembers him being injured in late 2019 when he suffered a dislocated and fractured hip, a broken nose, and a concussion.
Tagovailoa went fifth overall in the 2020 NFL Draft by the Miami Dolphins to be their franchise quarterback with his injury concerns.
Tua Tagovailoa struggled in his rookie campaign, passing 1,814 yards with 11 touchdowns in 10 games. Tua didn't see action until week six and was then awarded the starting job in Week 7. However, his underwhelming numbers led him to be benched twice for Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Tagovailoa ranked 30th in QBR and 29th in completion percentage. He was 36th in Air Yards per attempt while ranking 37th in fantasy points per dropback which exemplifies his conservative passing style. NFL defenses exposed his tendency to make the short or intermediate pass and refusing to make throws because no one is wide open.
The lack of elite weapons along with a weak offensive line hampered Tagovailoa in becoming an effective quarterback. The Dolphins had zero players surpass the 800-yard mark in receiving
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Tua will look to improve his play in his second season as the Dolphins' signal-caller. He will have offensive upgrades and more weapons this season. The Dolphins went out and obtained best-ball favorite Will Fuller from the Houston Texans. There will also be a reunion in Miami with Tagovalioa's former Alabama teammate, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
Tagovailoa will be drafted outside the top-12 at quarterback, so fantasy managers are looking for him primarily in two-quarterback leagues. I am avoiding Tagovailoa regardless of price. There seems to be a ton riding on his potential upside. Unfortunately, his weapons upgrade won't make the necessary fantasy impact because he doesn't pass enough, ranking 32nd in pass attempts.
His lack of rushing yards diminishes his opportunities to be a top fantasy quarterback. He only rushed for 109 yards last season, and if a quarterback doesn't run the ball, he has no shot of being my fantasy quarterback.
He is being drafted around round 13, and I still think he is overvalued fantasy asset. Please give me the upside of Jameis Winston and Trey Lance or the consistency of Derek Carr over Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins were heavily involved in talks to trade for Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. I am not convinced that the Dolphins front office is sold on Tua, and neither should fantasy managers.
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