Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 1 Lineups (2025)

September 7, 2025

Dave's fantasy football start 'em and sit 'em booms and busts for Week 1 of 2025. Sneaky starts that may boom, and typical starters who will disappoint.

Week 1 of the 2025 season is finally here, and so is our fantasy football Booms and Busts article for Week 1! The 2025 NFL season has officially started. It feels just like yesterday we were watching the Philadelphia Eagles hoist their second Lombardi Trophy after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX. How time flies.

That means it's time to shift your attention to setting Week 1 lineups. Everyone knows to automatically start Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Ja’Marr Chase. But what should you do with those fringe players? That’s what we’ll attempt to answer here every week. Results will vary, but you can be sure each player listed in this column will be well-researched. I play in upwards of 60 fantasy football leagues every year. The players I am bullish/bearish on each week are reflected in my own starting lineups. So, for whatever it’s worth, know that I’ll be right beside you in sinking or swimming regarding these start/sit calls every week.

Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football needs. Let’s get into our boom/bust picks for Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Booms

Chuba Hubbard - RB, Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Hubbard gets a tasty matchup right out of the gates in Week 1. Jacksonville was one of the worst defenses in the league last year. Per FTN Fantasy, the Jaguars ranked 25th in defensive rushing DVOA and allowed the eighth-most rushing yards in the league last year. They also ranked 27th in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s explosive run percentage.

All of the data points to this being a great matchup for Hubbard. We should also point out that Jacksonville has a new head coach this year. Liam Coen takes over for Doug Pederson. Coen hired Anthony Campanile as the team’s new defensive coordinator. This will be Campanile’s first time serving as a coordinator at the NFL level, and the Jaguars defense still has many holes.

Even though there’s a new regime in Jacksonville, it feels relatively safe to expect Carolina and Hubbard to be successful running the football in this game. Fire up Hubbard as a rock-solid RB2 in all formats.

Tucker Kraft - TE, Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Green Bay spent the entire offseason hyping up Kraft, and we’ve heard multiple people in the organization state that Kraft will have a larger role this year.

What a catch by Tucker Kraft for the TD!

📺: #HOUvsGB on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/5cpzRJLlEj

— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024

The Lions present a tough matchup on paper and allowed the fewest PPR points per game to tight ends last year. However, Detroit has a new defensive coordinator and play-caller this year. Plus, after the Packers struggled in their first go-round against the Lions last year, Green Bay had more success in the rematch, primarily by targeting Kraft.

Start #Packers TE Tucker Kraft in WK 1.

After losing their first matchup to DET last year, GB played DET much tougher in WK 13.

That’s because targeting Kraft was VERY effective.

Kraft had a total 4.88 EPA and a .697 EPA/TGT per @FTNFantasy

Solid TE1 play #FantasyFootball

— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) September 1, 2025

With third-year wide receiver Jayden Reed banged up, we should expect to see Kraft targeted early and often in a game that has sneaky shootout potential.

Trevor Lawrence - QB, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers

As we previously mentioned, Liam Coen takes over as the new Jaguars head coach this year. Coen had a huge impact on Baker Mayfield’s career during his only season as the team’s offensive coordinator in 2024. Mayfield posted career highs across the board, and Tampa Bay was one of the best offenses in the league.

Lawrence has two fantastic receivers to work with in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. This is also a plus matchup as Carolina allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last year, made few additions to the secondary, and retained the same defensive coordinator.

This is a good matchup for the new-look Jacksonville offense to get off to a fast start. If you’re streaming quarterbacks in Week 1, Lawrence is an ideal target.

Emeka Egbuka - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

With Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan both expected to miss Week 1, Egbuka finds himself thrust into an immediate starting role in Tampa Bay’s offense. That’s a good thing because these two teams combined to score 123 points in their two games last year.

We could see similar fireworks right off the bat in Week 1 as Tampa Bay failed to adequately improve its defense this offseason. That could force the Buccaneers to throw the ball to keep up in this game, and it will mean plenty of opportunities for Egbuka. Start him as a WR3 or flex with a boost in full PPR leagues.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Busts

Tony Pollard - RB, Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos

With Tyjae Spears currently on IR nursing a high ankle sprain, Pollard is set for an every-down role in Tennessee’s offense. The problem is that this is a horrible matchup for the Titans.

Even though rookie quarterback Cameron Ward has drawn rave reviews all summer, he is still a rookie making his first career start on the road in a hostile environment. Denver is one of the better teams in the league, and its defense, which was among the best in the league in 2024, should be strong again in 2025. Denver ranked first in defensive rushing DVOA and allowed the third-fewest rushing yards last year, too.

Tennessee is an eight-point underdog in this game at some sportsbooks. There is a real possibility the Titans fall behind early, go into catch-up mode, and abandon the ground game. That would leave few opportunities for Pollard to amass fantasy points.

Pollard might still carry some value in PPR formats if the above scenario comes to fruition. Short of that, though, it could be tough sledding. If you have other viable options, consider leaving Pollard on your bench this week.

Caleb Williams - QB, Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

After a disappointing rookie season from Williams, the Bears hired former Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to be their new head coach. His primary objective is to help Williams become the quarterback Chicago envisioned when it took him first overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. This move has prompted a lot of enthusiasm for Williams and the Bears offense. However, it might be wise to temper expectations for Week 1.

Minnesota made several investments along its defensive line this offseason and still has one of the better defensive minds in the game (Brian Flores) calling plays.

The Vikings ranked first in defensive passing DVOA in 2024, and there is little reason to suspect they will have a significant decline in 2025. Throw in a young quarterback adjusting to a new offense, and it’s easy to see a scenario where Williams and the Bears struggle to sustain drives and score points.

With Johnson calling the plays in Chicago, we should see Williams make considerable strides in Year 2. However, this is a tough opening matchup, and it might take a few weeks before we see improvements from this offense. Leave Williams on the bench and look for other streamers.

DK Metcalf - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets

Metcalf takes over as the Steelers' de facto WR1 and faces little competition for targets. However, this is a tough Week 1 matchup. Metcalf will likely square off against star cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner this weekend. As a result, Metcalf has one of the worst matchups in my colleague Corbin Young’s Week 1 WR/CB Matchups column.

Even though New York ranked 21st in defensive passing DVOA last year, it only allowed 60.5 yards per game to opposing teams’ WR1s and allowed the third-fewest PPR points to wide receivers, too.

With former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn now calling the shots for the Jets defense, we should expect to see overall improvements from this unit while still guarding receivers very well. We could also see the Jets pressure 41-year-old Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at a high rate, and this could also negatively impact Metcalf’s outlook.

Despite Metcalf being Pittsburgh’s far and away top receiver, this is not the week to start him. Look for other receivers to start and only consider playing Metcalf if you’re devoid of better options.

Nick Chubb - RB, Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams

With Joe Mixon still on the NFI list nursing a foot injury, Chubb is in line to start for the Texans. This is a plus matchup on paper, but it’s uncertain if Chubb or the Texans can take advantage.

Houston completely revamped its offensive line this offseason and primarily did so by trading away star tackle Laremy Tunsil to the Washington Commanders. Houston is now rolling with a mishmash group on the offensive line and hoping for better results than last year. That is a questionable approach, and could mean this ground attack struggles.

There’s also the fact that Chubb was absolutely terrible in 2024. Among 46 backs with 100+ attempts last year, Chubb ranked:

44th in PFF rushing grade
45th in EPA/att, per FTN Fantasy
43rd in explosive run percentage, per Fantasy Points Data Suite
42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data Suite

Chubb’s 2023 knee injury seems to have left him a different player. The former Cleveland Browns RB1 was a fantasy football star for years, but there is a lot working against him right now. Based on Chubb’s 2024 numbers/data, there’s no good reason to start him. This is a situation where it’s better to see Chubb return to form rather than throwing him into lineups and hoping he hits.

That means the move is to leave Chubb on your bench in Week 1. However, if he looks good in this game, then Chubb will be a viable starting option in Week 2 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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