RADIO
In the blink of an eye, the first week of the MLB regular season has come and gone, along with Triple-A Opening Day last week and Double-A/Single-A Opening Day on Thursday.
In the dynasty world, news and notes articles take on a whole new meaning. Not only are we discussing short-term value with these players, but we need to look long-term as well. A good dynasty manager is like Crazy Eyes from the movie Mr. Deeds. You have to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. "I wasn't talking to you, Deeds. I was talking to that squirrel over there. [points at a goat]."
So that's what I'm going to do each week with this Dynasty News and Notes article here on RotoBaller. I'll be going around the league, discussing all the notable storylines and players both from a short-term and long-term perspective. Let's get to it.
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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty News and Notes
Time to Get In On James Outman
Throughout his minor league career, James Outman always fell into the "performing well but old for the level" bucket of players, which kept his prospect ranking and dynasty price tag in check. Before the lost 2020 season, Outman put up 30 home runs and 32 steals in 174 games and didn't stop after the lost season either.
In 2021, Outman slashed .266/.379/.490 with 18 home runs and 23 steals in 104 games before fully breaking out in 2022 with 31 home runs, 13 steals, and a .293/.393/.586 slash line. Sure, that also came with a 27.2% strikeout rate, but that's not outlandish in today's game, and Outman also walked 12.5% of the time.
Fast forward to 2023, and Outman has one homer and one steal through his first six games with a 94th-percentile sprint speed and an insane quality of contact metrics. Yes, it's a tiny sample size, but I'm really excited about Outman moving forward. The red flags during his limited time with Los Angeles have been a 41% whiff rate and 72.7% zone contact rate. If he can improve upon those a bit, Outman could be an impact bat for fantasy purposes with a 25/15 upside.
Joey Wiemer Has Fantasy Star Potential
In each of the last two minor league seasons, Joey Wiemer has flexed an impressive blend of power and speed. The type of power and speed that could make him an impact fantasy outfielder someday. So even while he fell in other rankings due to the approach (which was certainly a concern), I kept him within my top 50 or close to it.
Now, Wiemer is showcasing that power and speed blend in the majors with Milwaukee. He's only five games in, but Wiemer already has a double, home run, and a steal while only striking out three times in 19 plate appearances.
The manageable strikeout rate is huge for Wiemer. Despite racking up 21 home runs and 31 steals in just 548 plate appearances last season after a near 30/30 season in 2021, plenty of focus was on his strikeout rate, which sat at 29.3% entering the month of September.
However, Wiemer improved his approach drastically over the final month of the season, striking out only 12.5% of the time in 80 September plate appearances compared to an 18.8% walk rate. Wiemer has the power and speed to eclipse 20/20 annually. If he can maintain the late-season approach gains long-term, he could be a fantasy monster.
Francisco Alvarez Recalled
Originally, after Francisco Alvarez was sent down to Triple-A, I thought he wouldn’t be back up until sometime in the middle of the season. However, with Omar Narvaez now out for several weeks, Alvarez will rejoin the Mets and should handle the starting catcher duties moving forward.
With Alvarez, the power is impactful, and he could settle in as a 30-homer bat long-term or close to it. However, I’m questioning where the AVG lands as Alvarez tends to be overly aggressive at times, which likely will be exposed by MLB pitching. But with his quality of contact and contact skills in general, hitting around .250 is definitely in play to pair with a solid OBP and all of that power. In the short-term, I could see a 20-25 homer pace but with a lower AVG.
Dynasty Debate: CJ Abrams vs. Brice Turang
This week’s matchup is a former top-10 prospect in CJ Abrams vs. the newest prospect flavor of the week, Brice Turang. If you had this debate 12 to 18 months ago, it would’ve been over in half a second with Abrams winning in a landslide. But the tides have certainly turned for both Abrams and Turang’s fantasy value since the start of the 2022 season.
Let’s start with Abrams. Anyone that has watched him knows he has the elite speed to pair with solid contact skills. However, that’s where the positive aspects of his profile end. We had long been hoping that Abrams’ power would develop to the point where he would be a 15-homer type, but that simply has not happened.
I'm not saying that it can't, but nothing in the profile even remotely hints at that level of power. Entering Thursday, Abrams has put 234 balls in play with only five barrels and a career 86.3 mph AVG EV. He's also hitting the ball on the ground a ton and walked just 1.7% of the time last season. Was he rushed? Yes. Am I out on him? Not fully. But I have major doubts about his power right now.
As for Turang, he could be considered the new prospect flavor of the week. When you compare his profile to Abrams, I'd rather bank on Turang at this point. After some uninspiring seasons leading up to 2022, Turang broke out with 13 home runs and 34 steals in 603 plate appearances to go with a .286/.360/.412 slash line.
Turang doesn't have a ton of power himself, but he's at least shown enough to project as a 10-15 homer type with a solid AVG/OBP and more than 20 steals annually as well. As of now, I'm leaning toward Turang until Abrams shows any signs of life in the power department.
Updated Top 10 Dynasty Prospects
With Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson graduating over the last couple of days, we now have a new #1 and #2 sitting atop the dynasty prospect rankings. Here are my new top 10 prospect rankings for long-term dynasty value:
1. Jordan Walker (OF – STL)
2. Elly De La Cruz (SS/3B – CIN)
3. Anthony Volpe (SS – NYY)
4. Jordan Lawlar (SS – ARI)
5. James Wood (OF – WAS)
6. Jackson Chourio (OF – MIL)
7. Ezequiel Tovar (SS - COL)
8. Kyle Manzardo (1B - TBR)
9. Grayson Rodriguez (SP - BAL)
10. Curtis Mead (2B/3B - TBR)
Dynasty Quick Hits
Well, my assumption that Grayson Rodriguez wouldn't be promoted early in the season after being demoted to Triple-A was dead wrong. Rodriguez made only one start in Triple-A and didn't look overly impressive, which was exactly how he looked during Spring training as well. However, after a shaky first inning or two, G-Rod settled down and allowed two earned runs over five innings with one walk, five strikeouts, a 31% whiff rate, and 28% CSW. The upside is certainly there to provide the top 50 SP value ROS and top 15 SP value long-term.
I’m basically out on Luis Patino at this point. I’ve been fading him for the better part of a year now, and he continues to drop down my rankings here in 2023. The command simply isn’t there for him to stick as a starter, and I’m not sure he has the stuff to be an elite closer, either.
On the flip side, another young AL East arm is putting himself on the deep-league radar. After a strong spring, Jhony Brito stepped into the rotation after Carlos Rodon and Luis Severino went down for the Yankees. His first MLB start was a dandy, twirling five shutout innings with six strikeouts. Brito went changeup-heavy in this outing, tossing the offering 36.8% of the time with a 50% whiff rate. He's worth monitoring in deeper leagues moving forward.
Brett Baty left the game on Tuesday night after an awkward swing that aggravated the same thumb that cost him some time in 2022. Luckily, there was no structural damage, and Baty is considered day-to-day. If you've been stashing him, I'd definitely continue to do so.
Michael Soroka is working his way back after missing the last two seasons with Achilles injuries and only making three starts back in 2020. It's easy to forget that Soroka finished inside the top 10 NL Cy Young voting back in 2019 and is still only 25. His velocity was up a bit in his most recent Triple-A outing compared to 2019, and his breaking ball looked especially sharp. There's plenty of risk here, of course, and Soroka wasn't a big strikeout arm prior to getting hurt. I'd still be willing to buy low in dynasty leagues as the price tag is likely very cheap right now.
After a disastrous 2023 debut, Jose Berrios' ERA as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays now sits at 4.94 through 45 starts. That's also come with a below-average 21.8% strikeout rate as well. Berrios was an arm that I was always a bit lower on than most, and I faded him pretty hard when he went from the pitcher-friendly AL Central to the tough AL East. Both his four-seamer and sinker get hit around too often, and Berrios doesn't miss bats at a high clip. There's zero intrigue here for me, and I'd probably try and sell him if you can, even if you just get back a top 100 prospect or so.
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