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Joe Nicely breaks down the FanDuel DFS lineup picks for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson. Daily fantasy golf advice on under-owned golfers and who to avoid for your lineups.
Hello RotoBaller PGA crew! It's great to be back with you guys and I appreciate you joining us here at RotoBaller for your PGA DFS research. We return to TPC Craig Ranch this week for the 2022 edition of the AT&T Byron Nelson.
In this article, we'll discuss some of the standout PGA DFS plays available on FanDuel for the RBC Heritage. While it's impossible to hit on every player, we'll touch on some different plays across all price ranges, breaking the groups down into "High", "Mid", and "Low" price options that are worth considering.
Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for FanDuel, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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2022 AT&T Byron Nelson - PGA DFS Overview
The Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Par 72 - 7,468 Yards, Greens: Bent, Designed By: Tom Weiskopf
After hosting two editions of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, TPC Craig Ranch moved into the big leagues last year by holding the AT&T Byron Nelson after the event's failed experiment at Trinity Forest Golf Club. A part of the TPC network, the McKinney-based course offers a dependable level of quality but provided little resistance to the PGA Tour pros in its debut last year.
When digging into the nuts and bolts of Craig Ranch, the importance of Par-5 scoring should not be underestimated, as golfers must take advantage of the four they'll see this week. Approach shots of over 200 yards spike heavily on this layout, as nearly 35% of approach shots came from 200+ in last year's edition, a percentage that dwarfs the PGA Tour average of 22.9%. Five of Craig Ranch's Par-4s measure between 450-500 yards, so a focus on players that score well on lengthy Par-4s certainly makes sense on this slate. We toss the term "birdie fest" around a lot in PGA DFS, but TPC Craig Ranch stands as the textbook definition...easy to hit fairways, generous greens, and reachable Par-5s.
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | TPC Craig Ranch | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 288 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 66% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 70% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 65% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.39 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- SG: Ball Striking
- SG: OTT
- SG: Approach
- Birdies or Better Gained
- SG: Par-5s
- SG: Putting (Bent)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for FanDuel (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event including DFS lineup picks for DraftKings/FanDuel, betting advice and DFS prop picks.
High-Priced FanDuel DFS Plays
Scottie Scheffler ($12,100)
Thanks to the Byron Nelson's close proximity to next week's PGA Championship at Southern Hills, we've got a legit stacked field this week. It's led by the world's No. 1 player, Scottie Scheffler, who has already won four times this year, including the Masters last month. As a result, I feel obligated to at least touch on Scheffler here, though I do wonder how motivated he will be this week, with the year's second major championship looming on the horizon.
If we push those motivation concerns aside, Scheffler is obviously an elite option. He's a native and resident of the Dallas-Fort Worth area and has experience on this TPC Craig Ranch layout. The world's hottest player is a terrific statistical fit this week, as Scheffler leads this field in both SG: Par-5s and Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds, not to mention being first in SG: Total and DK Points scored.
Justin Thomas ($11,900)
JT is simply playing too well to not pick up a win at some point. Now, like the aforementioned Scheffler, I'm sure Thomas would rather that be next week at Southern Hills, but we have seen him win the week directly prior to a major twice in recent years (2018 & 2020), so there's certainly some precedence for a victory in this spot. He's been a statistical beast from T2G this year, gaining strokes T2G in seven of his eight 2022 starts, while gaining on Approach in every start. He both feasts on Par-5s (fifth SG: Par-5s L24) and racks up birdies in bunches (ninth BoB Gained L24), traits which should serve him well on this gettable Craig Ranch layout.
Sam Burns ($11,400)
Burns narrowly missed a win in last year's AT&T Byron Nelson, falling just shy of K.H. Lee despite a course record 62 in the second round. After winning the Valspar Championship for the second time earlier this year, the LSU alum is starting to display a Bubba Watson-like trait of repeatedly playing well on the same sub-set of golf courses. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him in contention again in this version of the Nelson, as his game is tailor-made for this Craig Ranch layout. Burns bombs it off the tee (17th Driving Distance L24) and is an elite putter (fourth SG: Putting L24).
Will Zalatoris ($11,200)
A breakthrough win is a matter of when not if for Will Zalatoris. This week's Nelson makes a lot of sense for the DFW native and resident. He grades out second in this field in Proximity from 200+ yards, an area that will be critical this week, as an eye-popping 34.5% of approach shots came from this range in last year's edition of the Nelson, a noticeable spike from the PGA Tour average of 22.9%. The elephant in the room is his putting, an area that remains a work in progress for the rising star. It's fair to wonder if he can make enough putts to win a shootout such as this week's Nelson, but his ball-striking should give him ample opportunities throughout the tournament.
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Mid-Priced FanDuel DFS Plays
Cameron Champ ($10,500)
We were on Cameron Champ in this article a couple of weeks ago for the Mexico Open and he came through with an impressive T6. Notoriously streaky, it's safe to say Champ is in the midst of a heater after that Mexico result on the heels of a T10 at the Masters, so I'm willing to ride the hot hand this week at Craig Ranch. He scored just a T55 on this course last year, but his recently rediscovered ability with the flat stick means there could be a drastic improvement on last year's effort this go-'round. Champ is - obviously - extremely long off the tee (first in Driving Distance L24) and he will be able to reach all four of this week's Par-5s with ease.
Jhonattan Vegas ($10,200)
Vegas comes to town with some nice course history (a T9 in his lone TPC Craig Ranch appearance last year) and sneaky-great form. The Venezuelan gained an eye-popping 10.03 strokes on Approach last week at TPC Potomac to lead the Wells Fargo field. He's now gained strokes T2G and on Approach in each of his last four starts, finishing inside the top-27 in all those outings. Vegas grades out fifth in this week's stout field in SG: Par-5s and 11th in Birdies or Better Gained over the same timeframe.
Aaron Wise ($9,700)
After a blistering swing season that included three consecutive top-15 finishes across October and November, many predicted big things for Aaron Wise in 2022. Unfortunately, the former NCAA champion has stumbled badly out of the gates this year. However, Wise has put forth some encouraging efforts over the past two months, logging top-25 results in three of his last five starts, while gaining strokes T2G across all five of those outings. He ranks just 50th in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds, but that is a deceiving stat, as he stands 10th in Opportunities Gained. Translation...Wise is getting tons of birdie looks, but can't make a putt. There's no guarantee that he'll find any success on the greens this week, but he has now (barely) gained strokes putting in each of his last two starts, which could signal that the putter is indeed waking up after a disastrous start to the year.
Low-Priced FanDuel DFS Players
Adam Hadwin ($9,500)
Adam Hadwin stands out as noticeably underpriced to me this week at $9.5k. The Canadian has been steadily posting top-flight results as of late, including a T9 at the Players, a T7 at Valspar, and a T4 at the Valero Texas Open. Hadwin "just" managed a T26 in his most recent start at the Heritage, but you get the idea. He grades out fifth in this field in Birdies or Better Gained over his last 24 rounds and stands fourth in both SG: T2G & Approach over the same time frame. This will be his first time seeing TPC Craig Ranch, but the form and value make Hadwin a terrific salary saver on this slate.
Keith Mitchell ($9,300)
Mitchell comes in off a disappointing missed cut at last week's Wells Fargo, but I'm not going to put too much weight into his second-round 74 on a day that many in the field struggled mightily with the conditions at TPC Potomac. If we toss out last week, Mitchell had gained strokes T2G in each of his last five appearances and logged top-15 finishes in four of five. He notched a T26 at Craig Ranch in last year's Nelson. That bit of prior success on this layout, coupled with his strong recent form, makes Mitchell one of my favorite dark horses on the slate.
Sebastian Munoz ($8,800)
There's no specific stat that's going to blow us away with Sebastian Munoz this week, but he's displayed a high level of consistent recent form that we usually can't find at $8.8k. Munoz has made the cut in each of his last six starts and gained strokes T2G across all those outings. He has some Craig Ranch experience under his belt, though last year's T55 doesn't really represent how well he's playing at the moment. Munoz grades out seventh in Overall Proximity over the last 24 rounds and 11th in Proximity from the key 200+ yards, while standing 13th in the field in SG: T2G.
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