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Mike's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 7 of 2025. His college football picks with confidence points -- expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
I missed a couple of high picks once again, so I fell off the pace quite a bit. taka11 had the best week in the group so far this season with 51 points in Week 6. That was five points better than Littlemy. 13 more entries had between 40 and 44 points.
chrismiller19 kept the group lead with a strong week. His entry is now at 235 points. That's nine points higher than Pick-and-Morty in second place. BamaBoy hangs onto third, but is only one point out of second place. PAPIPEREZ moved into fourth place with 220 points. JBTiger 83 and ESPNFAN9409337165 are tied for fifth with 218 points.
14 more entries all have over 200 points. Even though there is some separation at the top now, one big week can change the look of the entire group.
College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks on RotoBaller every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there!
(1) Indiana over Oregon
What do we really know about Oregon? Penn State just lost to a UCLA team that was destined to go winless for the first time in its storied history. Indiana has been tested more than the Ducks, and they smashed Illinois.
Everyone knows the last Big Ten team to win at Oregon, right?
It's Indiana #iufb
The Gerry DiNardo led '04 Hoosiers beat #24 Oregon 30-24. Here's a Lance Bennett TD return from the game pic.twitter.com/q9AG8krPx4
— Hoosier Review (@Hoosier_Review) September 29, 2025
Could we be in for a repeat of this 2004 game? This is the most talented Indiana team in the last 50 years. Oregon has still looked the part, and FPI (69.5%) and Vegas (-7.5) heavily favor Oregon. It's worth it to try to steal a point with 92% of the public on Oregon.
(2) Missouri over Alabama *UPDATE - moved down*
Mizzou ranks 4th IN THE COUNTRY in total offense.
They rank 1st IN THE COUNTRY in total defense.
No other school ranks top 5 in both categories.
— SEC Numbers Guy (@secnumbersguy) September 30, 2025
Missouri is the first team since 1985 to have six straight home games to open the season. This is the last of that streak. Alabama's bugaboo is run defense. Both Florida State and Georgia ran at will on Alabama. Missouri might have the best run game in the SEC.
Alabama at Missouri by the numbers pic.twitter.com/bw2Ti8Zq60
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) October 7, 2025
The public is just 17% on Missouri, making this a good place to try to steal points. FPI gives the Tigers a solid 36.6% chance at a win, and the spread is under a touchdown. I might move this down a spot or two, but if Missouri is ready to take that next step, this is the prime spot.
I know that I picked Alabama against the spread. I'm still sticking to Missouri here to try to steal a few points. My Pick Em entry is struggling anyway. I need points any way I can get them.
(3) Arizona over BYU
Arizona is now the only program in the nation yet to allow a passing touchdown. pic.twitter.com/IAn8KwZQAm
— Jason Barr KGUN (@JasonBarrTV) October 4, 2025
BYU doesn't rely heavily on passing, but if Arizona can get out ahead at home, they could push BYU out of its comfort zone. Arizona has been tough at home this season. BYU is still a heavy favorite per FPI (69.6%), but Vegas only has the spread at -2.5 for the Cougars.
That means Vegas thinks this could be a close game. In a close game, I want the more experienced quarterback. The toughest team that BYU has faced so far is Colorado. I tend to think Arizona is a better team. They definitely are on the defensive side of the ball.
(4) TCU over Kansas State *UPDATE - moved up and flipped to TCU*
I may end up moving this one. K-State is only +105 on the money line, meaning Vegas could see K-State winning this game just as easily as losing it. The public is very heavy (89%) on TCU. This is a prime spot to steal points, but the Wildcats keep inventing ways to lose.
With the news that Dylan Edwards may not play, it means that he is definitely not at full strength. The Kansas State offense doesn't function the same without him. I'm flipping to TCU.
(5) Nebraska over Maryland
Maryland is a tough team, but that Nebraska defense was a force last week. Is Nebraska really a different team on the road this year? They haven't taken to the road yet. Maryland gave Washington everything it could handle last week.
This is another game where FPI (66.6%) and Vegas (-5.5) are heavier on the road team. I could see Maryland winning this game if they can avoid errors. That's enough for me not to raise the point total on this one.
(6) Michigan over USC
The Wolverines are more physical, and I simply can't trust the USC defense. Jayden Maiava is going to be a problem for Michigan, but there's no way that USC's defense can contain Justice Haynes. No team has been able to yet.
43% of the public is still backing the Trojans. FPI has USC a heavy favorite (68.5%), while Vegas only has the Trojans favored by 2.5. That's enough for me!
(7) Iowa State over Colorado
Insane Campbell stat of the day:
Matt Campbell’s conference record at Iowa State is 47-36.
Paul Rhoads, Gene Chizik and Dan McCarney combined for 45 conference wins at ISU.
The most recent ISU head coach to have a winning conference record?
Sam Willaman, Jack Trice’s coach.
— Jack Trice Mafia (@JackTriceMafia) October 2, 2025
This is a tough week; otherwise, I would move this one down. FPI (63.1%) is fairly heavy on the Cyclones. The spread has already dropped two points in Vegas, but I'm a believer in the Iowa State defense. Brendan Sorsby burned them deep without both starting corners last week. I'm not sure Kaidon Salter's deep arm is good enough to do the same.
(8) Oklahoma over Texas
Records and stats might not mean much in the Cotton Bowl, but OU has a pretty big edge heading into the game across several categories:
Sacks Allowed: ✅ OU (1.6) | Texas (1.8)
Scoring Defense: ✅ OU (7.2) | Texas (12.0)
Scoring Offense: ✅ OU (33.8) | Texas (29.6)
Team…— The Main Line (@TheMainLinePod) October 6, 2025
I would feel better about this if Texas had beaten Florida. However, after watching that game, I know the Oklahoma defense is good enough to handle Arch Manning as Florida did. The Sooners lead the nation in sacks. Florida put pressure on Manning, and Oklahoma can do the same.
I'm shocked that Vegas favors Texas. The line has fallen with news that John Mateer might play, but I've figured this all along. Mateer played over three quarters with a broken thumb against Auburn. It didn't seem to affect him at all.
Oklahoma would never have scheduled the surgery if they thought Mateer would miss this game. They would have waited until he couldn't take the pain anymore, or it was starting to affect his play. I smashed the OU moneyline when this opened.
FPI has favored Texas everywhere all season long. It's not shocking that it still has Texas at 60.9%. I'm comfortable having the game this high. Oklahoma is the better team at nearly every position.
(9) Georgia over Auburn
The Auburn line is still a disaster. Georgia's defense isn't as good as it was last year, but it's pretty close to Oklahoma's unit. We all saw what Oklahoma did to Jackson Arnold and that line, right?
(10) Utah over Arizona State *UPDATE*
Journeyman Jeff Sims is starting in place of Sam Leavitt for Arizona State. I'm moving Utah up to the top slot. I was on the fence about this with a healthy Sam Leavitt. There's no doubt that Utah gets Big 12 home win number one in this game.
