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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Fight Night 175: Smith vs. Rakic on 8/29/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Another weekend, another UFC event. The show must go on, I guess. This Saturday we'll be back at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, where the eighth event to take place in the promotion's training complex will take place. Just three weeks ago we lost what was going to be the main event of the main card of this one, but it is not that the replacement fight looks any bad, though.
Former LHW champ Anthony Smith and Aleksandar Rakic are the ones slated to headline this weekend's card, and although Geoff Neal was the one scheduled to face Neil Magny at welterweight, it will finally be long-time staple Robbie Lawler who will do so. Add a rematch between Ankalaev and Cutelaba and a few more fights to the card and we have ourselves a nice one coming.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Fight Night 175: Smith vs. Rakic on 8/22/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Anthony Smith, $7500 - vs. Aleksandar Rakic
Had Smith not lost his decision against Jones, who knows how things would look these days? Alas, he did. So here we are, with a Smith about to enter the cage carrying a 1-2 losing record in his last three bouts, all of them since the start of 2019 and the last one this past May. Rakic comes with a very similar profile in the win-loss column, having lost his last fight against Volkan Oezdemir in December and boasting a 4-1 record since his 2017 debut.
While Rakic has shown finish-prowess in the UFC (he's KO'd his opponents inside the first round in his last two wins), the thing is that Smith has been much more prone to close fights early: Smith's last six wins came via submission (two times) or KO (four), and he only has gone the distance one time in 2016--and against Jones in a loss.
Neither fighter offers much upside when it comes to the ground game, and Smith enters this fight as the underdog with fewer than 25% chances of winning the affair per Vegas. I'm hesitant to buy into that, though, even less at his price. Although Smith has lowered his defensive numbers lately, I'm banking on a potential early win here with bonus points going his way.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Neil Magny, $8600 - vs. Robbie Lawler
If there is anything these two have done in their lives, that's definitely fighting. Lawler and Magny have been inside the UFC Octagon a combined 43 times, and Lawler has even had the time to be part of the promotion, fight for a belt, leave for greener pastures, then come back in 2013 coinciding with Magny's debut. This is bonkers.
Lawler's best days are probably over. It's been more than four years since his last title fight, and he's currently on a three-fight losing streak with a 1-3 record since 2017. He's lost to top-tier competition lately, though, so it is not that we can murder him. Magny, on the other hand, has won his last two fights (both in 2020) and is 4-2 since 2017, though only with one early stoppage.
Lawler has a clear edge on striking, landing 4.9 SS per minute on an incredible 56.9% success rate compared to Magny's 3.3 on 44% success. He also attempts over a SS more than Magny does... and eats strikes for breakfast absorbing 4.9 per minute to Magny's 2.5 on similar percentages. Magny is often the one attempting more takedowns, though, and Lawlers is always targeted there allowing 37.35% of the TDs he sees. Magny has a great chance at getting the win here and become the best fantasy play if only because of those takedown points.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alexa Grasso, $9100 - vs. Ji Yeon Kim
Contrasting background that of these two women. While Ji dropped her first UFC fight to Lucie Pudilova, she then went on to win her next three fights including knocking out her last foe for a 3-1 record since 2017. Grasso, though, won her first but is now 3-3 alternating wins and losses for all of his UFC career. She lost her last one against Carla Esparza.
Both of these fighters throw strikes in bunches although not with the greatest of landing rates, and neither of them seems to know what a takedown is. The numbers are really close and might be a close one in which the right hit at the right time might be critical. Grasso's got some heavy power in those fists, and even if this goes the distance--which is the most probable outcome--she should be the one whose hand is raised at the end of it.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ricardo Lamas, $9200 - vs. Bill Algeo
I know picking the chalk play is boring, but I don't think there is any other option here. While it is true that Lamas has dropped three of his last five fights since 2017, and most importantly his last one and the only in which he appeared in 2019, he knows what the UFC is about. He's been around since 2011. Algeo, though? He's making his debut... and comes from losing his latest fight.
Even if not the greatest to ever step inside an Octagon, Lamas resume and list of foes--win or loss--is staggering. That's good and all, but the important thing is that he has a well-rounded game that is predicated on both striking and grappling, with monster ground-striking abilities. Algeo is all about the ground game and those sweet submissions. Anyways, I'm betting on an outperformed Algeo losing this one to Lamas, with the UFC veteran getting the W here and the best of fantasy contests.
Lamas has also KO'd/submitted his opponents in his last three wins, so there is upside to get some bonus early-stoppage points attached to his name.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Ion Cutelaba, $7200 - vs. Magomed Ankalaev
It's been just six months since the last time we saw these two... inside the same cage at the same time. Back at the end of February, this couple met for the first time and Ankalaev "knocked out" Cutelaba in all of 38 seconds. He needed to land 8 SS to claim the win. Uh, oh.
That's not a fluke, though. Ankalaev is 4-1 in the UFC with all of those victories strung from 2018 to this very year. Cutelaba, though, is 1-2 since 2019 and 4-3 overall; good, but not great. Both men have some grappling abilities, but it's all about them strikes for these two. You know what? That first fight finish was weird, to say the least. I'm giving a second chance to Cutelaba here because he couldn't even try himself against Magomed. He looked a bit rocked, yes, but let's give him a little more of room to operate and see what he can do, even more at that ridiculously low price.
