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Today's best MLB strikeout prop bets and pitcher K props for Monday, July 20. Thunder Dan's expert MLB player prop picks, betting odds, and advanced stat analysis to help you win.
Sunday brought the end of our incredible run on Sean Burke strikeout props as he managed just five strikeouts across six and two-thirds innings, but Joey Cantillo, Paul Skenes, Logan Gilbert, and Eury Perez all came through for us on their props. We have a larger Monday slate than usual, and plenty of good strikeout arms on the bump, so let's keep attacking those weaker lineups with pitchers who have solid strikeout stuff!
I'll provide my three favorite spots for your consideration. If you want the remaining strikeout bets, you'll need to grab a premium pass to see all of my favorite K prop wagers. Our top MLB writers are posting their favorite props on Discord daily, so gain additional access to those picks with a premium RotoBaller membership.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, July 20, 2026. Odds will change during the day, so lock in those bets as early as possible and always shop for the best number across multiple sportsbooks or prediction markets! If you love betting on baseball, check out our premium betting tools here at RotoBaller and sign up to access all our daily premium content!
High-Confidence Strikeout Picks
All odds were current as of 7:00 AM
Braxton Ashcraft OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-106 Novig) at New York Yankees
Happy Ashcraft Day! This is a matchup that I have been looking forward to (as a Pirates fan), as I think this team has a chance to legitimize itself in the eyes of the rest of the league with a series win over the Yankees. Ashcraft, an NL All-Star, was supposed to start this weekend in Cleveland, but had his start pushed to today after Friday's game was postponed due to wildfire smoke.
Now we get Ashcraft and his strong strikeout arsenal against a very K-prone Yankees lineup! Overall, New York has been slightly better since the break in the K department, but they still check in with a 24.7% K% vs. RHP over their last 14 games, which is the fifth-worst mark in baseball.
I think the specifics of this matchup are what make it a slam dunk for me. Ashcraft has been really tough on LHH with a 31% against them compared to just 22% against righties. When we look at the projected Yankees lineup, we can see that their most K-prone hitters are all lefties (Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ryan McMahon, and Austin Wells) except for 9-hole hitter Max Schuemann.
Ashcraft has seven strikeouts in four of his last five starts, just narrowly missing the mark with six Ks in his last outing against Milwaukee. He's well-rested and has the type of dominant stuff to induce plenty of whiffs today. Hopefully, he can finish off hitters in those two-strike counts.
Payton Tolle OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-154 Caesars) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tolle is my second favorite pitcher on the board today based on his strong first half and what looks like a really good matchup of his own.
The hard-throwing lefty raised his K% on the season to 25.5% with seven strikeouts in three-plus innings against the Mets before getting a quick hook (which was planned) to give him some additional rest going into the break.
Payton Tolle blowing 97 past Juan Soto. pic.twitter.com/a97hSkxAyQ
— Tyler Milliken (@tylermilliken_) July 12, 2026
He's got very strong reverse splits like Ashcraft when it comes to his strikeout numbers. He's sitting at 29% against RHH this year compared to just 18% against lefties. The good news is that he should see seven hitters from the right side of the plate from Baltimore if we get this lineup.
That's a lot of red! The bottom seven hitters have strikeout rates of 24% or higher! Tolle pitched well against this team back in early June, blanking them for six frames but with just five strikeouts. I think he gets six today, and if your book doesn't have him available at 5.5, then I think there's upside for him to get seven, and I can back that play at plus money, too.
Value Plays and "Under" Targets
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