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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 15: Blaydes vs. Lewis on 11/28/20. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
It is going to be hard to reach the levels of UFC 255, but Vegas 15 at least will share the same venue as last weekend's card, am I right? We witnessed two title fights this past Saturday, and two reigning champs keeping the gold wrapped around their bellies. The main card featured two early stoppages (of both KO and submission variety), and three fights going the distance. We won't have any belt on the line this weekend, but that doesn't mean the fights will drop a lot in terms of the fighters' abilities. There will be fireworks once more in Sin City.
Why? Because the main card is headlined by a monster bout between two HW titans in Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis, to start (or maybe better said, "end") with. These two rank no. 2 and no. 4 in the contending ladder for Stipe Miocic's title, only topped by Francis Ngannou (no. 1) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (no. 3) respectively. Other than that, the LHW division will also bring everything it has, putting Anthony Smith's chances of another shot at the title in the line facing an unranked Devin Clark that will try to make it hard for the former challenger to repeat down the line.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Vegas 15: Blaydes vs. Lewis on 11/28/20. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Curtis Blaydes, $9300- vs. Derrick Lewis
Is Blaydes as close as he's ever been to a title shot? Could very well be the case. While Derrick Lewis fought Daniel Cormier for the gold back in November 2018, Blaydes dropped his best chance at it when he was knocked out cold by Francis Ngannou in just 45 seconds that very same month. That is one of only two losses in Blaydes' UFC run--both against Ngannou.
Lewis, as I said, had his shot at the title but couldn't do a thing falling down submitted by Cormier, and then losing his next fight too to Junior Dos Santos. The good news is that he's bounced back and is entering the Octagon on a three-fight winning streak, including a KO in his last one last August.
Blaydes is a much better fighter, can't lie about that. He strikes and takes opponents down. He's attempted 106 TDs in 12 fights while landing 59 of them (more than 50%). In his last fight alone, he went 14-of-25 against Alexander Volkov and finished with 143.5 (!!!) DKFP on that bout. That's insane, and 30 fantasy points above Lewis' career-best fantasy score. The odds of Lewis upsetting the no. 2 contender are as slim as they can get.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Devin Clark, $7700- vs. Anthony Smith
Since Smith lost his decision for the LHW belt against Jon Jones back in March 2019 he's been a train wreck. He won his next fight via submission, yes, but in a couple of times he's stepped into the Octagon in 2020 he's gone home carrying two Ls, the last one in August. That has Smith at a rather putrid 1-3 record in the last two years and at the verge of definitely getting off the title picture.
Devin Clark, on the other hand, has the opposite record in that same span with a 3-1 run since 2019 and two wins in a row entering this Saturday's event. Clark is far from a top contender, in fact, he's just been ranked around the top-30, top-40 fighters of the division, and Smith is clearly the strongest opponent he will have faced up to this point in his career.
While Smith has a much higher-level fight log than Clark, poor Anthony looks more cooked than not. Smith is the favorite here, but the distance doesn't seem to be properly reflected in the salaries with Clark being much cheaper yet having a 47.6% odds of getting the W. Bet on the dog here. We need Clark getting closer to the top of the LHW leaderboard.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Josh Parisian, $9000 - vs. Parker Porter
For a debutant, this is definitely a prime position to be in for Parisian. Josh will appear on his first "official" UFC event (those being either numbered ones or Fight Nights) and he'll do so against still-freshman Parker Porter, who got knocked out in his debut this past August by Chris Daukaus. Porter lasted all of 4:28 minutes then and has not (obviously) fight since that night.
Parisian finished his last inflicting a KO on his opponent inside the first round, and has 12 of 13 career-wins ending that way, which... yes, Parisian is a killer. Parisian has won his last six bouts, and five of them ended before the first five-minute whistle. Porter isn't far below Parisian career-wise, though, with five KOs in nine wins.
This is pretty much a newcomer vs. newcomer fight. Parker bit the dust in his first time inside an Octagon, and Parisian could very well end doing the same this Saturday. That being said, Parisian is the absolute favorite for this one with a 70 percent probability of getting the win and a more than probable early-stoppage getting him some tasty bonus fantasy points. The price is high, but the rewards could be even higher.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Takashi Sato, $7500- vs. Miguel Baeza
If you don't know a thing about Sato and/or Baeza, this sums it up nicely: expect a knockout coming from either side because these two know how to put opponents to sleep nicely.
Takashi Sato has three fights in the UFC, and the three of them finished early. Two times he got the best of his opponents knocking them out in fewer than seven and one minutes, but he lost the other bout via submission in the third round. He will try to avoid getting back to the L column this weekend.
Baeza himself has just two fights, and he won both via KO in seven minutes and 18 seconds (!) respectively, being 2-0 in his UFC career. None of these two have fought earlier than April 2019, so they're fresh as hell in the promo and so far they are a combined 4-1, which calls for fireworks. Baeza has scored 102 and 111 DKFP in his wins, and Sato finished with 94 and 109 in his ones. This one could be close, the loser will probably put on a dud, and Sato is the cheaper play coming in as a dog but being rostered by most fantasy players given his upside. Go with Sato.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Bill Algeo, $7300- vs. Spike Carlyle
The main card of Saturday's UFC event will open with a very contrasting fight--in terms of experience--to the one that will close by the end of it. Algeo and Carlyle combine for three pro-fights under the UFC banner, and this is almost a win-or-go-home bout for them after both of them dropped their last bouts via decision earlier this year.
Algeo is fighting for the second time, and he wasn't bad in his lone fight three months ago. He was active striking and also landed his single TD attempt, but he couldn't beat Ricardo Lamas in the judges's eyes. Carlyle, 1-1 in the UFC, lost to Billy Quarantillo after knocking out Aalon Cruz in 1:25 minutes to get a W in his debut back in February.
Carlyle is the favorite here, but it is not that there is a lot of distance between their ML and their winning odds sit at 61% Carlyle, 44% Algeo. Algeo, though, gets into this one with a very high upside if he can get the win, as his fantasy points related to his salary (basically, his ROI) yields the highest relation in this weekend's slate.
