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Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Safeway Open DFS lineup picks, under-owned value pays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Dustin Johnson capped off an amazing stretch of play by winning the Tour Championship last week. With the victory, DJ also claimed the FedEx Cup and a huge $15 million payday.
I'll be filling in for the great Spencer Aguiar this week. While I won't be able to equal Spencer's amazing DK analysis, we'll dive into some of my favorite plays for the Safeway Open, a tournament that features one of the weakest fields we've seen in quite some time.
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Safeway Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!
Safeway Open - PGA DFS Overview
Silverado Resort & Spa North
7,166 Yards - Par 72 - Greens: Poa Annua
A small group led by Johnny Miller purchased this Robert Trent Jones Jr.-designed property in 2010. Miller quickly orchestrated a fairly extensive re-design which has been well received. This is a classic layout with tough-to-hit, tree-lined fairways that places an emphasis on accuracy off the tee. Elite ball striking is required at Silverado and will be an area that I will target heavily, while iron play will also take its usual prominent place in my research process. Recent winners here are players that I would largely place in the "ball strikers" category, with most being known for their length and ability off the tee. I'll also glance at scrambling and around-the-green ability this week, as this tournament definitely isn't a "birdiefest", with the average winning score at around 15-under par. For the first time in a while, we'll see true California Poa Annua greens. Poa is notoriously tricky, so I'll definitely be keeping an eye on players that have positive putting splits on Poa.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Safeway Open | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 284 | 281 |
| Driving Accuracy | 52% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 67% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.55 | 0.56 |
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Par-Five Scoring
- Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained Off The Tee
- Bogey Avoidance
- Scrambling
- Strokes Gained Putting (Poa Annua)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Si Woo Kim ($10,800)
There's definitely a bit of sticker shock that comes with seeing Si Woo Kim atop the salary scale this week. As we'll see throughout the slate, this Safeway field is an especially weak one. Kim is such a volatile player that it is a bit tough to swallow him at this price, but he has played consistently good as of late, with a third-place finish at the Wyndham being the highlight of a very strong August. He's gained strokes T2G in five-straight starts dating back to the Memorial, though his Safeway record is nothing fancy - a T49 and a MC in two starts since 2016 - which makes his place at the top of the board even more suspect. We have to understand that pricing is gonna make us feel uncomfortable this week - it's just the nature of these events with weaker fields - but even taking that into account, I can't personally pull the trigger on Si Woo here.
Phil Mickelson ($10,600)
Another head-scratcher here, as Lefty's price feels inflated even with the watered-down nature of this field. Phil Mickelson does possess a very strong course history in this and displayed that he still has game with a third-place finish at the WGC in Memphis and a win in his Champions Tour debut a couple of weeks ago. I really don't hate the play, as he's demonstrated that he still has some juicy upside, but like with Kim, Phil's extremely tough to swallow at this price point.
Brendan Steele ($10,000)
Goes without saying that the price is gross, but Steele is an intriguing option this week. He's won twice on this golf course (2017 & '18) and has flashed some form in 2020 after a disastrous 2019. Steele has gained strokes both T2G and on Approach in his each of last six starts. He also leads this field by a rather comfortable margin in SG: Total for this event since 2016.
Joel Dahmen ($9,500)
Dahmen's history at the Safeway is pretty ugly - MC/T49/MC since 2016 - but his play since the restart warrants him consideration. Dahmen has recorded five top-20 finishes in nine post-layoff starts and possesses top-10 upside this week. As with basically every player in this field, we're taking on some volatility with him, but his recent standard of play is as high as anyone available to us this week.
Harold Varner III ($9,100)
Finally a play that at least feels like a good one. HV3 brings a nice blend of recent form and course history to the table this week. Varner has made five-straight cuts at Silverado, with three finishes inside the top-17 among those starts. Varner heads to the Safeway ranked fourth in the field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds and had played well at both the PGA Championship and the Wyndham before his season ended in the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs at the Northern Trust.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Cameron Davis ($8,900)
Things start to become a tiny bit more palatable as we move down into the mid-range of the salary scale. Cameron Davis certainly jumps out at $8.9k. The young Aussie is a streaky player, but closed out the season in sharp fashion over his last four starts, going T12/T32/T15/T29 before his season ended after the Northern Trust. He stands first in the Safeway field in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds and scored a T17 finish at Silverado two years ago.
Sam Burns ($8,700)
Burns fits the player profile that I'm looking for this week rather nicely. He ranks seventh in this field in both Birdie Opportunies Gained and Par-5 scoring. His ability off the tee (third in the field SG: OTT) is reminiscent of former Safeway winners Cameron Champ and Brendan Steele. Burns put together a strong stretch of results after the restart, making five of seven cuts with three top-25 finishes.
Mark Hubbard ($8,100)
One of the biggest surprises since the restart has been Mark Hubbard. He had popped a couple of times early in 2020, but played very consistent golf post-layoff, making the cut in all nine of his starts since play resumed, often against star-studded fields. Hubbard brings that steady style to a Silverado course where he posted a T13 in last year's Safeway and feels like a "safe" play on a slate that doesn't have many.
Patrick Rodgers ($7,600)
We'll round out the "mid-range" with Patrick Rodgers. Rodgers isn't going to jump out at us statistically, but his game doesn't translate well to every course. I believe the Stanford product is a good fit at Silverado and his history in the Safeway - four made cuts in five starts since 2016 with a T6 and a T25 - reflects just that. He's a long-knocker that should play the four Par-5s well and he ranks seventh in this field in SG: Putting on Poa.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Cameron Tringale ($7,500)
Cameron Tringale hasn't been super-active since the restart, but he's shown enough over his six post-layoff starts to earn consideration this week. Tringale hasn't had many high finishes at the Safeway, but he has made the cut in four of his last five starts on this Silverado layout. His iron play stands out this week and he comes in ranked third in this field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds.
Luke List ($7,400)
List fits the "Brendan Steele, Emiliano Grillo mold" that has worked on this layout before...great ball striker, horrible putter. The Vandy product nabbed a win on the Korn Ferry Tour after the restart and also posted a top-10 finish at the Memorial. He's found some success at the Safeway, scoring a T4 in this event two years ago and making the cut in three of his last four starts at Silverado. He undoubtedly inconsistent, but there's some nice upside here at $7.4k.
Talor Gooch ($7,300)
I feel like I'm constantly chasing Talor Gooch in DFS, as his inconsistency can drive those of us that routinely roster him absolutely crazy. I'm back on board again this week, as we know the talent is there at his $7.3k price tag. I can easily see Gooch getting himself into contention this week, but I could also see him missing the cut. He's the very definition of a boom/bust GPP option.
Wesley Bryan ($7,100)
We haven't had many chances to roster Wesley Bryan lately, but I've routinely leaned on him when he has teed it up. Bryan has been on fire with his irons since returning from an injury, gaining strokes on approach (often a massive amount of strokes) and T2G in all four of his post-layoff starts. He grades out fifth in this field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds. Bryan's track record at Silverado is nothing fancy, but I'm always interested in hot iron players with cheap price tags.
Xinjun Zhang ($7,000)
A true GPP dart throw this week, Xinjun Zhang has only two cuts in nine post-layoff starts. However, in those two events where he made the weekend he posted finishes of T10 and T12. Zhang is volatile, but there is some upside here. He's also played well at Silverado, recording a T7 and a T37 in his two career Safeway starts. Strictly a "gut" call.
Adam Schenk ($6,900)
Since I'm filling in for Spencer this week, it feels right to close out the article with one of "his guys". Adam Schenk is a player that Spencer has written up a few times with great success. I'm willing to go back to the well with him at $6.9k this week, as he has a nice enough blend of recent form and course history (a T14 here two years ago) to consider as a value option. Schenk ranks fifth in this week's field in SG: Par-5s and is an interesting option for those of us that might be forced to punt our sixth roster spot.
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