The Cut List (Week 13) - Time to Let Go?

December 2, 2020

Chris O'Reilly's list of potential busts and overvalued players who fantasy football managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 13 of the season.

For our Week 13 Cut List preamble, we are going to lament the absolutely mystifying chain of events that ended the Chargers/Bills game in Week 12. Down by 10 with 3:21 left on the clock and starting from his own 12-yard-line, Justin Herbert led yet another impressive late-game drive that included two fourth-down conversions--one of which was an improbable Hail Mary that resulted in a first-and-goal from the two. Having spent all of their timeouts, the Chargers had to race down the field as the clock drained their comeback chances one painful second at a time. Upon reaching the line of scrimmage, they ran the ball up the middle with no way to stop the clock. Somehow this didn't come as enough of a surprise to the Bills for the defense to be caught sleeping, as they stuffed Austin Ekeler for an inconsequential one-yard gain.

After this completely inexcusable play-call, the Chargers' hopes had completely evaporated. Still, for a then-3-7 team that had lost several games in soul-crushing fashion, playing out the string with a couple of endzone shots (they were on the one-yard-line!!!) seemed a preferable way to lose this one than by simply giving up. So naturally, the last play of the game ended up being a confusing, glorified QB-kneel which somehow included Herbert running straight into the back of an offensive line that was dropping into pass protection. Undoubtedly a miscommunication, sure, but again: how is it not 100% clear to everyone on the field that Herbert should be attempting a pass in this situation?

If you're a fantasy manager with one of the several Chargers offensive players who might have benefited from functional decision-making at the end of this disaster, you probably wish there was some way for us to include head coach Anthony Lynn in the Cut List for this week. I can't help you there, but we can take a tour around the league to discuss players who should stay or go. And with that, we're off to Week 13.

Droppable Players

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

85.9% rostered

With the way Matt Ryan has played this year, I can't imagine he's been your automatic, every-week guy at QB for at least the last month. He's averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game (ESPN standard scoring) in his last five. Kirk Cousins, who is rostered in roughly 66% fewer leagues than Ryan, is averaging 19.6 in the same time frame. Also in this span, Ryan has committed as many turnovers as he's thrown touchdown passes. He's completed 54% of his throws in his last two outings.

It's crunch time, boys and girls, and I don't see how you could be confident rolling Ryan out there in a must-win Week 13 matchup with a playoff spot on the line. For what it's worth, he's about to face the Saints again, who just held him to his worst fantasy performance of the season in Week 11. There's also the issue of Julio Jones' hamstring, which kept him out of most of Week 11 and rendered him inactive in Week 12. Any further missed time for Jones would continue to be a detriment for Ryan; here are his splits with and without Jones on the field in 2020, courtesy of RotoViz.

Having said all of this, Ryan is droppable *if* you have picked up a more reliable QB along the way and you need to free up a bench spot. Among the quarterbacks you could realistically have paired with Ryan on fantasy rosters throughout this season who I would consider to be significantly better/safer options are Ben Roethlisberger, Justin Herbert, and Ryan Tannehill. I would much rather roll the dice with any of those guys than play the waiting game on Ryan, who has become a relatively all-or-nothing play.

Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints

4.4% rostered

The worst possible thing that could've happened to Jameis Winston's career is unfolding right before our eyes. Instead of allowing a former number-one overall pick to take the reins during Drew Brees' multi-week absence, the Saints have opted to go with a former gadget player who had attempted 13 total passes in his first two seasons. And, of course, they're winning.

Say what you will about the two teams they've beaten (Atlanta, Denver), but with Taysom Hill at QB the Saints are 2-0 with a plus-43 point differential. Winston isn't getting on the field without an injury to Hill or an absolute meltdown by the Saints offense, and playoff-bound fantasy managers can't afford to tie up a bench spot for the off-chance one of those things happens. There are better emergency backups out there.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

55.9% rostered

Green did show some flashes of a minor resurgence since then, however, so you may have scooped him up off the waiver wire or simply held onto him late into the second half of the year. Unfortunately, whatever return to prominence Green seemed to be approaching has once again subsided. He has failed to record a catch in two of his last three outings, with a Week 11 touchdown grab from the now-injured Joe Burrow being his only saving grace in his last four.

The season-ending injury to Burrow naturally deals a haymaker to the Bengals passing game, and Green was just barely treading water to begin with. Now with the likes of Brandon Allen and/or Ryan Finley at QB, there is no viable way to trust Green in fantasy lineups going forward.

Hold For Now

Kalen Ballage, Los Angeles Chargers

62.8% rostered

Kalen Ballage was inactive for Week 12, but I'm convinced he would've been a non-factor even if he were healthy with Austin Ekeler back on the field. Ekeler was targeted 16 times, caught 11 of those for 85 yards, and added 44 yards on 14 rushing attempts. Does that strike you as the type of usage rate that suggests the Chargers wish they had another running back to incorporate? The reality is the Chargers are thrilled to have their multi-purpose workhorse back in the fold; if they're looking Ekeler's way 30 times in his first game since October 4, imagine what looms on the horizon for all fantasy managers who patiently awaited his return.

The silver lining for Ballage is that Joshua Kelley still snuck onto the field for seven carries and scavenged a short touchdown away from Ekeler. Ballage was outperforming Kelley prior to missing Week 12, so there's a chance those supplementary touches go to the former whenever he suits up next. Either way, we have to see Ballage and Ekeler active in the same game before we can conclude that Ballage is anything more than a low-end, touchdown-dependent flex play.

J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team

73.5% rostered

Washington has played with the lead in back-to-back games, which has reduced J.D. McKissic's role of late. McKissic enjoys heavy passing-game usage when the Football Team is trailing, but Washington has clearly developed a tendency to feed Antonio Gibson when they're not playing catch-up. The common thread in Washington's two recent victories is that both the Bengals and Cowboys are bad teams. The remaining schedule is considerably more difficult: at Pittsburgh, at San Francisco, versus Seattle, versus Carolina, at Philadelphia. You could reasonably expect Washington to be facing an early deficit in all of its next three games, with the last two profiling as crap-shoots.

Gibson is very obviously the better player and it wouldn't be surprising to see him box McKissic out of the equation altogether with the way he's been producing. This is also the NFL, though, and we've seen too many coaching staffs consistently keep players like McKissic fantasy-relevant despite the presence of a superior option like Gibson. In any case, I'm holding onto McKissic to see if the upcoming schedule results in an uptick in PPR viability.

Revisiting Previous Articles

James White, New England Patriots

48.4% rostered

If you've been following this column each week, you're aware I typically try to highlight calls I got wrong. Prior to Week 11, I advised dropping James White. Given the information I had available at the time, I'd make that same call 100 times out of 100. He had simply not been a usable fantasy player for the entire season up to that point, while Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead were performing well enough to mitigate White's role further. Then, Burkhead got injured in the third quarter of New England's Week 11 loss, and White immediately began getting more looks en route to an 83-yard, 11-touch day complete with nine targets.

White scored two short rushing touchdowns in Week 12 to make an otherwise bland fantasy day look great on paper, though he also reverted back to being a non-factor in a terrible Patriots passing attack against the Cardinals. While he is incredibly unlikely to morph into a championship-winning PPR threat the rest of the way, White does have a role again with Burkhead on injured reserve. Especially if the Patriots are going to continue giving him the ball in goal-line situations like they did against Arizona, he becomes a game-script-dependent PPR flex option with touchdown potential. He's worth revisiting on the waiver wire heading into Week 13.

Other Options To Consider Dropping

• Anthony McFarland Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers
• Carlos Hyde, Seattle Seahawks
• Cordarrelle Patterson, Chicago Bears
• Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears
• Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
• Malcolm Brown, Los Angeles Rams
• Golden Tate, New York Giants
• Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
• Jordan Reed, San Francisco 49ers
• Salvon Ahmed, Miami Dolphins

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