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Mike's college football betting picks against the spread from Wednesday, December 31, Thursday January 1, and Friday, January 2. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
We are down to eight regular bowl games and seven CFP games remaining in the college football season. We'll cover all of the remaining regular bowls in this piece, and the quarterfinals of the CFP. It's going to be a wild three days!
The last three CFP games will also be picked against the spread. I will either have my picks as part of the DFS articles or as a post on X. I'm not abandoning you all now!
Keep up with the latest opt-outs here. This source has been one of the most consistent threads that I have seen. If I see anything that comes up that isn't on the list, I'll post it on X.
CFB Betting Picks for 12/31/26 - 1/2/26
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
(23) Iowa vs. (14) Vanderbilt (-4.5) at Tampa
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Diego Pavia has accounted for 36 touchdowns this season.
Iowa Quarterbacks have thrown for 36 touchdowns over the last 4 seasons COMBINED.
— SEC Numbers Guy (@secnumbersguy) December 30, 2025
While that is an interesting stat, it fails to mention that Iowa is a run-first and run-second team. Passing is often an afterthought and is considered an insult to the offensive line.
Kidding aside, this is a terrible matchup for Vanderbilt, and TE Eli Stowers has opted out of this one. I understand that Pavia is going to be motivated, but how many times have we seen Iowa beat an SEC team in a New Year's Bowl in which they weren't supposed to have a chance?
It's happened enough for me to know better than to lay anything of substance on Vanderbilt.
Pick: Iowa +4.5
Arizona State vs. Duke (-6.5) at El Paso
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Arizona State is missing way too much for this to be ignored. They’re down key pieces on both sides of the ball, including their QB, top skill guys, and multiple defenders. That’s not just depth — that’s production and leadership gone.
Duke, on the other hand, is mostly intact…
— Sharp Pulse (@Sharp_Pulse) December 31, 2025
In the post above, we see that this line is being accepted as high as -6.5. I get it. I love Kenny Dillingham and the attitude he has towards everything. I want him to be my coach. I would run through a brick wall for him. Chances are, most of his team would as well...at least the ones who stuck around for this game.
Everything in me says that Duke is going to win this game. With the line still this low in almost every major casino, buy it now if you're on the Duke side. It will go up by kickoff.
Pick: Duke -3.5
(18) Michigan vs. (13) Texas (-7.5) at Orlando
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a really tough one to figure out. Texas will be without both Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter. Texas wasn't great at running the ball, but they'll now be putting a lot on Christian Clark in this one.
Michigan, rocked by another scandal, is in a situation where it doesn't know who will be available, and interim coach Biff Poggi is calling everything as he sees it.
My best guess is that the Michigan defense will show up, and whoever plays on offense will be good enough to make this a fight. A one-score fight.
Pick: Michigan +7.5
Nebraska vs. (15) Utah (-14.5) at Las Vegas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nebraska will be without arguably the best back in the Big Ten in Emmett Johnson. Dylan Raiola's time in Lincoln is done. Nebraska is facing Utah with TJ Lateef and Isaiah Mozee, two true freshmen with an eye for the future.
On the Utah side, Kyle Whittingham is gone, and I expect opt-outs to happen. At least we know where we are with Nebraska. We have no freaking clue about Utah.
Pick: Nebraska +14.5
(10) Miami (FL) vs. (2) Ohio State (-9.5) at Jerry World
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ahead of the Cotton Bowl
2003 Fiesta Bowl: That Infamous PI Call Should Never Have Happened. The Forgotten Missed Holding/Pass Completion. #GoBucks #CFBPlayoff #ohiostate pic.twitter.com/rkYTuGvvY4
— Buckeye Backers (@BuckeyeBackers) December 26, 2025
See? There is video proof that officiating has been awful in huge games for at least the last 20 years. Ohio State fans claim that Chris Gamble was in bounds. Miami claims that it wasn't pass interference.
I happen to think both are right. If that's true, that PI call never happens, and Ohio State wins anyway. This is Miami's first crack at the Buckeyes since they sent this program into a tailspin.
I expect a spirited effort out of Miami, but Ohio State is too good across the roster. One game doesn't make Carson Beck suddenly good in big games.
Pick: Ohio State -9.5
(5) Oregon (-2.5) vs. (4) Texas Tech at Miami
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I've seen enough of both teams to know that Texas Tech is much better on both lines, especially on defense. The wrong team is favored.
Pick: Texas Tech +2.5
(9) Alabama vs. (1) Indiana (-6.5) at Pasadena, CA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
There's a lot of juice on the 6.5 if you take it at that. I'm still okay with pushing it to 7.5 or higher. Indiana has only struggled against strong defensive teams. That is not Alabama.
Pick: Indiana -6.5
(6) Mississippi vs. (3) Georgia (-6.5) at New Orleans
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was only an eight-point game in Athens this year. You can argue that Georgia is better now than in September and that Ole Miss will miss Lane Kiffin in this one. Both things are likely true.
However, we saw how important it was for Kiffin to let coaches see this through for Mississippi. I still think Georgia wins by a touchdown, but I don't have supreme confidence in it.
Pick: Georgia -6.5
Rice vs. Texas State (-14.5) at Fort Worth
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Rice has no business in a bowl game. Brad Jackson will cover this by himself.
Pick: Texas State -14.5
Navy (-7.5) vs. Cincinnati at Memphis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Cincinnati lost every game down the stretch with Brendan Sorsby. There's no way they're winning a bowl game without him.
Pick: Navy -7.5
(17) Arizona (-2.5) vs. SMU at San Diego
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It sounds like Noah Fifita is in for Arizona. That's more than enough for me.
Pick: Arizona -2.5
(16) Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (-3.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This game is in Wake's backyard, and the Bulldogs are a sub-.500 team. The Wake slow mesh is going to be a massive problem for the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State is getting a lot of credit for pushing Texas and Tennessee to overtime in StarkVegas. They haven't deserved that credit with how they've played in the last half of the season.
Pick: Wake Forest +3.5
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