College Football Betting Expert Picks for Week Thirteen (11/28/2020)

November 26, 2020

Our CFB betting picks, analysis and top recommendations for Week 13. Every week, Nick reviews some of the best bets and wagers for the college football slate.

Week Twelve brought a host of COVID-19 cancellations, including one of the games that we had on our slate last week. Nevertheless, despite the adversity we had plenty to be thankful for with another undefeated week.

In the early noon game this past weekend, Clemson was robbed of the opportunity to face Florida State. While Clemson met the ACC protocols, Florida State claimed that Clemson did not meet their internal minimum requirements with regards to contact tracing and positive COVID-19 tests, and therefore the game was cancelled on Saturday morning. At 3:30pm, Georgia State overcame a slow start to easily dispatch of South Alabama. In the late game, USC held off Utah with ease in the Utes' first game of the 2020 season. The 2-0 week extends our streak to 14-0 in the past 5 weeks, and 24-8 on the year.

This Thanksgiving, I'm thankful for college football and the sacrifices made to make the 2020 season happen. Here are some betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another college football Saturday.

FRIDAY: Massachusetts at Liberty (+37.5)

O/U: 56.5

The UMass Minutemen hold the unofficial title of the worst college football team in 2020. Coach Walt Bell, who is the fifth-youngest head coach in the FBS at 36 years old, has a team that's lost three games this far, all in blowout fashion. The Minutemen have an unsettled quarterback room with four combined interceptions and a miserable 105 passing yards per game. The running game has been somehow even worse - averaging 2.5 yards per carry. The one bright spot for Coach Bell's young team is the defense, which has 8 sacks and 2 fumble recoveries in 3 games. Long gone are the days of Andy Isabella running the slot receiver position for the Minutemen, who are a hapless bunch with very little prospect of seeing the end zone more than once this Saturday.

Coach Hugh Freeze's name has entered recent murmurings for the South Carolina job and a few other possible openings - and for good reason. Freeze, fresh off taking Liberty to its first bowl game in 2019, is off to an 8-1 start that includes two wins over ACC teams, and a narrow 1-point road loss to NC State last week. Flames' quarterback Malik Wills, a transfer from Auburn, was recently added to the Maxwell Award watch list - an award given to the FBS' best all-around player. Willis is the only player in the nation to rank among the top 15 in both passing and rushing touchdowns with 17 and 9, respectively. Liberty will seek to establish the running game early, and to dominate the time of possession.

With 10 total offensive points scored (and a safety against FAU) in 3 games, UMass does not inspire much confidence. The line is awfully large, but UMass truly is a program with one of the worst offenses in modern day college football. Liberty will put up their points, but don't expect UMass to help much towards the over. The Minutemen team total is accurately at 8.5 points at the moment.

Pick: Under 56.5

Pittsburgh at Clemson (-24)

O/U: 55

The Pitt Panthers have been sharp in the month of November, with two blowout conference wins with star senior quarterback, and likely NFL draft pick, Kenny Pickett back from injury. With their fearless leader, the Panthers have scored an average of 44 points per game this month, easily covering the spreads and overs in wins over Virginia Tech and Florida State. Coach Pat Narduzzi's defense is littered with talented playmakers, but they have been privy to the big play in the passing game this year. Star safety Paris Ford opted out mid-way through the season to prepare for the NFL draft, leading way to a redshirt sophomore (Brandon Hill) taking his place. Expect the Panthers' offense, under Pickett, to come out sharp and without fear, and the defense to be stout against the run, but susceptible to a big pass play.

The Clemson Tigers have not won a game since Halloween, when they narrowly held off Boston College at home. In the Tigers' five home games this season, they are 1-4 against the spread. Coach Dabo Swinney, who has recently got a lot of run in the press for his comments regarding the Florida State game cancellation, may be coaching star players like running back Travis Etienne and quarterback Trevor Lawrence, in their last home game at Clemson. Lawrence, who missed the Tigers' only loss at Notre Dame because of COVID-19 protocols, is an academic senior and will be honored on Senior Day alongside a senior class that has won 27 consecutive home games. To maintain their position in the College Football Playoff, Clemson will need to take care of business through the remainder of the season.

Clemson's impressive home winning streak dates back to 2016, when Nathan Peterman and James Conner led Pitt to a shocking 43-42 upset win in Death Valley. This Panthers team is also armed with a talented senior quarterback and a host of defensive playmakers itching to make a big play. Clemson will be looking to its young defensive line, starring true freshmen Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy, to get into the Pitt backfield and disrupt Pickett, who is among the nation's most underappreciated players.

Pick: Pitt +24 / Over 55

#13 Georgia at South Carolina (+21.5)

O/U: 49

The Georgia Bulldogs, despite two losses, were ranked as the 9th team in the first College Football Playoff rankings this week. The Georgia offense finally got a spark from JT Daniels at quarterback in last week's win over Mississippi State. Daniels threw for 4 touchdowns and 401 yards in the winning effort, but the defense still let up 24 points against the quick-strike air raid attack. Georgia's 29.3 points per game is buoyed significantly by early season dominant performances against Tennessee and Arkansas - games that look and feel like a different season. With a strong defense, Georgia will compete in plenty of games, but their offense limits the potential heights that this team can reach.

Under interim head coach Mike Bobo, who had a stint as the head coach at Colorado State prior to joining the Gamecocks as their offensive coordinator this season, South Carolina battled with Missouri, falling by only a touchdown. The defense did its part holding Missouri to 301 total yards, but a costly interception foiled the comeback attempt. Colorado State graduate transfer quarterback Collin Hill, a Columbia, South Carolina native who followed Coach Bobo to play in his hometown this season, has been up-and-down throwing 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. The offense will go as far as running back Kevin Harris will carry them, and he has carried them to the tune of 6.0 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns thus far. Despite a few opt-outs from NFL prospects, the Gamecocks defense has shown up at times this season, and looked especially sharp in Coach Bobo's debut last week.

While the poll-voters and prognosticators laud Georgia every season, the reality is that this year's rendition has many flaws. The Bulldogs have not covered a game since early October, and may not be able to do enough scoring to cover a three touchdown spread this week.

Pick: South Carolina +21.5

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