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Chris Clegg's fantasy baseball dynasty buy lows, sell highs, and news for Week 11 (2024). Notable prospects debuts, risers and fallers, and trends to watch.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my Week 11 fantasy baseball news, notes, and buys/sells for dynasty leagues. This weekly series will take a look at various prospects, dynasty news, and discuss fantasy implications. Thanks for bearing with me as I did not get this article out last week due to the birth of our daughter. Now, she is a week old and I am much more sleep-deprived, but I am ready to rock and roll with new dynasty news and notes!
If you enjoy dynasty baseball, you know it is a fast-paced game. Keeping up with the Joneses per se keeps you in the game and at the top of the standings. At the end of the day, we all want to build a dynasty team that sustains and lasts for the long haul. I am here to help you do so.
Keeping up with all the current happenings can help you stay ahead of your league mates. Call-ups, trends, and buying and selling players are all just small pieces to help you stay ahead. So, that's what we will do in this article each week, break down everything you need to know to be successful in dynasty. Let's get to it, what do you need to know for dynasty leagues in Week 11 of the 2024 season?
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Recent MLB Prospect Call-Ups
Sadly, many big-name prospects that we are waiting on to debut have gotten hurt, like Junior Caminero, but that does not mean there have not been some prospects that have gotten the call that you should know about.
Connor Norby made his long-awaited MLB debut after having it made to Triple-A Norfolk back in 2022. It almost seemed like Norby was just bored of being in Triple-A this year. Upon getting the call to the majors, he homered in his second game in an Orioles uniform.
Before getting the call, Norby was slashing .286/.374/.510 with nine home runs and seven stolen bases in 51 Triple-A games. His strikeout rate was north of 30 percent, which was a bit alarming considering he has never been close to that mark before. This was supported by contact rates that stay at 70 percent overall and 81 percent in-zone. Both marks that will play, but are down from what we have seen from Norby in the past.
The power numbers were also a bit suspect as Norby checked in with a 101 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, which is 2.5 mph below MLB average. The average exit velocity of 87.4 mph is also a bit below average.
The good news is that Norby gets on base. He is aggressive on pitches in the zone, which is also a positive, and shows good plate discipline and pitch recognition. While it seems like a lot of negatives that I mentioned on the underlying data, Norby strikes me as a type that can hit .260-.270 with 18 home runs and 10 stolen bases.
Tonight, Connor Norby became the 12th Oriole in franchise history to collect their first career hit via home run (Orioles PR).
Three O’s have done so since 2022:
- Connor Norby
- Heston Kjerstad
- Gunnar Henderson#Birdland pic.twitter.com/KSTAyRBgNn— Rocco DiSangro (@RoccoDiSangro) June 5, 2024
Adam Mazur began the year in Double-A as a 22-year-old and has now found his way to the Padres rotation. It is not surprising given how the Padres work with promotions. Between 10 Double- and Triple-A starts, Mazur posted a 3.86 ERA, but the splits were pretty drastic between the two levels. A 1.95 ERA in Double-A and 7.11 in Triple-A.
Regardless, Mazur can pitch. Despite only two strikeouts and four walks in his MLB debut, Mazur allowed just one earned run in six innings.
Mazur’s fastball sits in the mid-90s, reaching 98 with room to fill out his frame still and add strength. The movement profile is interesting, as it is often quite inconsistent, but vertically averaging nearly 15 inches of IVB. Mazur fills the zone with it, but needs to find consistency for the fastball to truly play like a plus pitch.
The slider is devastating to hitters, sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s with late-breaking action that keeps hitters on their toes. It is Mazur’s highest whiff rate pitch, but he also lands it for strikes quite often. His changeup sits in the upper-80s with plenty of horizontal fade. The curveball is a decent fourth pitch, sitting in the mid-80s with 12-6 shape.
Adam Mazur becomes just the second Hawkeye baseball product to get a start in the majors.
Incredible outing by Mazur, considering he's barely 2 years out of college.
6 innings, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 2 strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/bxd5VSO1Zx— Owen Siebring (@owensiebring) June 5, 2024
Cade Povich got the call for the Orioles as well. He was featured in my most recent prospects ready to make a splash article here at RotoBaller. A lefty with a mechanical resemblance to Max Fried, Povich has a 3.18 ERA across 56.2 innings with a 32.5 percent strikeout rate and a 9 percent walk rate in Triple-A.
The fastball looks good and sits 91-93 mph with a good arm-side run. The mid-70s curveball shows incredible depth, having 60-65 inches of drop regularly with 10 inches of sweeping action. The mid-80s changeup showed nice depth and run while also featuring a sweeper and a cutter.
It is a true five-pitch mix. Povich has seen his strike-throwing improve this year with each of those pitches as well. He steals a lot of called strikes, having a 31.5 percent CSW. If he sticks in Baltimore, he is certainly an arm worth investing in.
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Trends to Watch: Dead Ball?
There has been a lot of buzz in recent days surrounding the baseballs that MLB is using. We know for a fact that MLB has consistently changed the balls year over year and even gave "goldilocks" balls to Aaron Judge when he was making his run at the home run record in 2022.
So, what in the world is it doing with the balls this year? Some of the debate started with Braves fans and chatter about so many warning track flyouts despite being hit on the screws. The Braves mashed 307 home runs last year, which tied an MLB record. This year, the team has 61, which ranks 16th in the league.
The entire league went on notice when Aroldis Chapman allowed a ball that left the bat at 107.2 mph and a 29-degree launch angle, and caused him to slam his glove in frustration, thinking it was a three-run home run. Instead, it traveled 380 feet, when on average balls hit at that launch angle and exit velocity travel 420 plus feet.
So, let's look at what is going on. Are the baseballs "dead" this year?
First, we will look at how far barreled balls have traveled year over year.
Barrel Distance
| Year | Barrel/Pitch | Distance |
| 2024 | 1.4% | 381 |
| 2023 | 1.4% | 385 |
| 2022 | 1.3% | 383 |
| 2021 | 1.4% | 386 |
| 2020 | 1.3% | 390 |
| 2019 | 1.3% | 390 |
| 2018 | 1.2% | 386 |
| 2017 | 1.1% | 392 |
| 2016 | 1.1% | 390 |
| 2015 | 1% | 390 |
While the number in 2024 seems a bit low, it is important that warmer days mean balls travel further. When we filter by just April and May data, the numbers look a lot closer.
Pulled Fly Balls with Exit Velocity > 105 mph
| Year | Distance |
| 2024 | 403 |
| 2023 | 407 |
| 2022 | 405 |
| 2021 | 408 |
| 2020 | 413 |
| 2019 | 418 |
| 2018 | 412 |
| 2017 | 418 |
| 2016 | 416 |
| 2015 | 417 |
Pulled Fly Balls w/ EV > 105 mph & LA between 25 and 30 Degrees
| Year | Distance |
| 2024 | 413 |
| 2023 | 420 |
| 2022 | 417 |
| 2021 | 420 |
| 2020 | 423 |
| 2019 | 427 |
| 2018 | 421 |
| 2017 | 426 |
| 2016 | 425 |
| 2015 | 427 |
I could keep going with charts but I think the important thing to note is that it is early in the season. Many teams have played in cold weather. We will check back in on this trend in a month to see how things are looking. While I would not put it past MLB to tamper with the balls, I don't think things are all that much different this year than they were last.
The fantasy implications are that more pitchers are pitching better and have lower ERA. Pitching can be found on the wire a bit easier. When looking to trade, focus on bats with power that won't be phased if there is a minor change in the ball.
| Year | ERA | HR/G | BABIP |
| 2024 | 4.32 | 1.03 | 0.288 |
| 2023 | 4.62 | 1.21 | 0.297 |
| 2022 | 4.28 | 1.07 | 0.29 |
| 2021 | 4.53 | 1.22 | 0.292 |
| 2020 | 4.65 | 1.28 | 0.292 |
| 2019 | 4.83 | 1.39 | 0.298 |
| 2018 | 4.45 | 1.15 | 0.296 |
| 2017 | 4.65 | 1.26 | 0.3 |
| 2016 | 4.48 | 1.16 | 0.3 |
| 2015 | 4.25 | 1.01 | 0.299 |
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Buys and Sells
Pablo Lopez is our dynasty buy of the week. Entering the year with plenty of buzz, many talked about Lopez as a potential top-five arm for the 2024 season. Instead, he has returned a 4.84 ERA across 67 innings to this point with 75 strikeouts and 11 walks. The strikeouts look good, and the WHIP is low thanks to the impressive 4 percent walk rate.
If the person who rosters Lopez is a bit concerned about his ERA, it may present a prime opportunity to buy. His xERA of 2.99 is one of the largest differentials between his actual ERA among all starting pitchers. His SIERA and xFIP fall in a similar line at 3.02 and 3.09, respectively.
Lopez's four-seam fastball has a 31.1 percent whiff rate, the second highest among MLB starting pitchers behind Ryan Pepiot. His sweeper and curveball also both have whiff rates above 30 percent as well. Lopez's changeup has been hit around a bit, but still a productive pitch overall.
Better days are ahead for Lopez, who has a very low strand rate and should see that the ERA trend is closer to the peripheral numbers. He still has SP1 fantasy upside, so now is the time to buy in.
#Twins Pablo López had 11 out of his 12 four-seamer whiffs come in the upper third of the zone & above against the Astros. That ties a season-high of 12 four-seam whiffs & the 3rd time of 10+.
After changes in the breakers & changeup, it's cool to see his four-seam dominate. https://t.co/Lz06ff6Mc6 pic.twitter.com/2Boyt1ZIRf
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) June 1, 2024
Marcus Stroman feels like the ultimate sell right now as someone sitting pretty with a 2.73 ERA through his first 69.1 innings pitched this season. On the surface, things look really good, but when we look under the hood, regression could be coming.
Stroman has a 4.44 SIERA and a 4.43 xFIP, which is largely due to his extremely low BABIP of .253. BABIPs tend to work themselves out and regress toward the mean in most cases for pitchers. Stroman's strand rate is also well above MLB average at 83.3 percent. If regression hits, Stroman could see things spiral fast, especially considering he does not miss bats. Having a sub-20 percent strikeout rate, Stroman relies heavily on inducing weak contact.
The concerning thing is that his average exit velocity and barrel rate against are worse than MLB average. While he has been the type to just get things done, regression could come soon. I would see what you could get for Stroman while the ERA still sits pretty.
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