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Chris Clegg's Dynasty Fantasy Baseball News, Notes and Buys/Sells (Week 6)

Joey Loperfido - Fantasy Baseball, Prospects, Rankings

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my Week 6 fantasy baseball news, notes, and buys/sells for dynasty leagues. This weekly series will take a look at various prospects, dynasty news, and discuss fantasy implications.

If you enjoy dynasty baseball, you know it is a fast-paced game. Keeping up with the Joneses per se keeps you in the game and at the top of the standings. At the end of the day, we all want to build a dynasty team that sustains and lasts for the long haul. I am here to help you do so.

Keeping up with all the current happenings can help you stay ahead of your league mates. Call-ups, trends, and buying and selling players are all just small pieces to help you stay ahead. So, that's what we will do in this article each week. Break down everything you need to know to be successful in dynasty. Let's get to it, what do you need to know for dynasty leagues in Week 6 of the 2024 season?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Recent MLB Prospect Call-Ups

It was another good week of prospect promotions. Teams are being more aggressive now than ever, and the majority of teams want to put their best product on the field, and that is what we are seeing. Let's dive into the three major call-ups that have taken place since the last dynasty news and notes article.

Jordan Beck got the call for the Rockies to replace the injured Nolan Jones. Beck has a good chance to stick, given his well-rounded skillset. He collected two hits in his MLB debut, which was fantastic to see after he slashed .307/.405/.594 with five home runs and five stolen bases in 25 games in Triple-A Albuquerque.

Beck hits the ball hard, as you can see from the 91.3 mph average exit velocity in Triple-A and the 90th percentile exit velocity of 104.4 mph. He paired that with a 49.4 percent hard-hit rate and an impressive 16.5 percent barrel rate.

The contact skills also improved from 2023 as Beck had an overall contact rate of 71.4 percent and an in-zone rate of 77 percent. He chases out of the zone at a better-than-average rate as well.

Joey Loperfido, the MiLB home run leader, got promoted to the Astros and collected a hit while driving in two runs in his debut. After hitting 13 home runs in Triple-A in 25 games with a .287/.393/.713 slash, the call-up was well-earned.

Loperfido mashed with a 92.7 mph average exit velocity and a 106.6 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, showing high-end power. The barrel rate was an insane 27.3 percent. For reference, the highest barrel rate in MLB is Shohei Ohtani at 22.9 percent.

Everyone panics about the strikeout rate, and I have seen him compared to Joey Gallo. For reference, Loperfido makes plenty of contact. Despite a six-strikeout game early on with a ton of whiffs, his contact rate sits at 73 percent and has been trending in the right direction all season. On pitches in the zone, that number sits at 83 percent. Those numbers will play, and Gallo can only dream of making contact at a rate anywhere close.

Tyler Black is the least hyped up of the trio that was called up, but he might actually be the one who performs the best out of the gate. Why? The contact skills are elite, and Black has an impressive OBP profile. He does not hit the ball overly hard, but Black does have a unique profile at a corner infield spot, considering the speed he brings to the table. In 25 games this year, Black slashed .303/.393/.525 with five home runs and three stolen bases in Triple-A. But this follows a year in which he hit 18 home runs and stole 55 bases.

The high-floor profile makes me think Black will likely excel out of the gate as he had a Triple-A contact rate of 85.5 percent and an in-zone contact rate of 90 percent. The power won't overwhelm you as he had just an 85.5 mph average exit velocity, but the launch angles helped him get to a barrel rate of 9.5 percent.

Black plays up in an OBP format, taking walks at a high rate thanks to a 22.7 percent chase rate. Expect him to hit the ground running with the Brewers.

All three of these hitters are good adds in most fantasy formats.

 

Dynasty Trends to Watch

Minor league contact rates are not something that are out there and talked about often. But looking for prospects who are improving on their contact rates or even those who are seeing declines is worth noting. I put together a list of top prospects with the biggest increase in contact rate from 2023 to 2024, but also a list of those who have seen declines.

Prospect Contact Risers

Player 2024 Contact% 2023 Contact% Delta
Abimelec Ortiz 81.5 70 11.5
Lazaro Montes 74 66.7 7.3
Samuel Zavala 74.4 67.3 7.1
Tommy Troy 80 73 7
Gabriel Gonzalez 80.9 74.5 6.4
Jordan Beck 71.4 66.6 4.8
Carson Williams 72 67.8 4.2

Prospect Contact Fallers

Player 2024 Contact 2023 Contact Delta
Druw Jones 57.7 67.6 -9.9
Termarr Johnson 58.5 66.9 -8.4
Tyler Locklear 63.5 70.4 -6.9
Dylan Beavers 72.5 79.2 -6.7
Colson Montgomery 69.6 75.5 -5.9
Jace Jung 65.6 71.4 -5.8
Emmanuel Rodriguez 64.9 69.6 -4.7

 

Dynasty Buys and Sells

Bo Bichette is someone who took a massive plummet in my recent dynasty rankings update. I have been holding out hope for a while that he would rebound, but things are unraveling even worse than I thought.

The home run rates have been trending in the wrong direction over the last four seasons as his stolen bases are in decline as well. This is not something I imagined I would be saying about a 26-year-old who, in 2021, hit 29 home runs and stole 25 bases.

While the contact rates still look good, and Bichette is not striking out often, everything else looks rough. The barrel rate and sweet spot percentage are among the worst in MLB, and he is chasing at a very high 35.4 percent clip.

While the surface numbers are very bad, as Bichette has a slash of .205/.262/.295 with just one home run and three stolen bases, you may be able to sell still, given the name value. That is what I would be doing because I am way out on Bichette.

In the process, I am also looking to trade for a polarizing player in Corbin Carroll. I have seen people willing to take some really low-ball offers for Carroll right now who is currently slashing .193/.292/.246 with a home run and eight stolen bases.

Many are speculating on the shoulder injury, which is still a real possibility, but I do think things will come around if he is healthy. The underlying data does not look good at all as Caroll currently has an average exit velocity of 84 mph and a hard-hit rate of just 27 percent. But the contact skills have remained and Carroll is still stealing bases which is a positive.

I know the massive drop in power is a concern that Caroll is hurt, but it could also just be a rough stretch. The barrel rate is not noticeably down, and his max exit velocity of 111.5 mph shows he is still capable of hitting the ball hard. The biggest issue I see in the profile is fewer pulled fly balls.

Regardless, despite the flaws we are seeing in the profile at the moment, Carroll is a good buy low. It was just last season he slashed .285/.362/.506 with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases.



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