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Cadillac Championship PGA betting model, and top outright betting picks for the 2026 Cadillac Championship at Doral Find the best golf betting picks with Sharpside's betting model.
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Welcome RotoBallers to our Cadillac Championship PGA Betting Model, and favorite outright betting picks for the 2026 edition. This model has hit 66 outright winners since 2021.
Typically when a new course is added to the rotation, this causes some issues when modeling, purely due to the inputs being unknown. That is not the case this week, as Trump Doral was once a staple, and we have a deep sample size.
This reminds us of the Houston Open where the player profile is obvious, which is great for the base model, which has produced insane ROI on that course. Here’s what our Model has for the Cadillac classic.
Trump National Doral
Doral is one of the most demanding driving tests in professional golf, and the layout dictates everything that follows. At nearly 7,700 yards, it is the longest course in the tournament rotation, and that length alone creates an immediate edge for players who can generate distance. That has consistently shown up in results, with 11 of the last 18 top-three finishers here ranking inside the top 10 in driving distance for that season.
Now, we have not seen this course since 2016, BUT LIV played here the last 2 years and the trend still holds. Lieshman and Burnmesters were the winners when the played their event at Doral, both fit the bomber profile
Off The Tee
The fairways, while visually wide, are lined with penal Bermuda rough, strategically placed bunkers, and constant water hazards that come into play on a majority of tee shots. The last time this course was played, it led the Tour in penalty strokes.
This is why SG: Off The Tee became a foundational metric this week, as it captures a player’s ability to combine distance and accuracy into a single output that directly translates to scoring opportunities.
Approach Play
From there, everything flows into approach play. The jump in SG: Approach when looking at winners compared to past Tour events was massive. Again, SG: Approach is predictive basically every week but that is amplified here.
Due to the length of the course and the number of long par 4s, players are consistently hitting into greens from extended distances. That is why we are placing a heavy weight on proximity from 225+ yards, as well as overall SG: Approach. These long iron shots are where separation happens, and players who can consistently create manageable looks from these ranges will outperform the field baseline over four rounds.
Par-4 and Par-5 Scoring
Par 4 efficiency becomes another key driver within the model due to the structure of the course. Many of the longest and most difficult holes fall into this category, and they carry elevated bogey rates, which shifts the focus from pure scoring to mistake avoidance.
This is where bogey avoidance is paired with par 4 efficiency to identify players who can maintain position without giving strokes back. At the same time, par 5 efficiency remains critical, as these holes provide the most realistic scoring opportunities on an otherwise demanding layout.
Short Game
Around-the-green play is included as a stabilizer, not a primary driver, but it still plays an important role. With the difficulty of hitting greens from long distances and the penalty for misses, players will be forced into scrambling situations throughout the week. SG: ARG helps filter out players who cannot recover consistently, which becomes more important on a course where avoiding big numbers is just as valuable as creating birdies.
Summary
All of this ultimately reinforces the same conclusion when building the model for Trump Doral. Success is driven by players who can dominate off the tee through a combination of distance and control, handle long iron approach shots, and navigate a difficult scoring environment without compounding mistakes. The key metrics reflect that structure, with SG: Off The Tee, driving distance, SG: Approach, proximity 225+, bogey avoidance, par 4 efficiency, par 5 efficiency, and SG: Around The Green carrying the most weight in the model this week.
Outright Betting Picks from the Cadillac Championship Model
Nicolai Hojgaard To Win Outright +5000
I reference The Houston Open at the beginning of the article, and while it will certainly play more demanding, we are projecting this to be an obscure correlating leaderboard. Think Mexico Open to Torrey Pines, many different courses but similar leaderboard crossover.
He is 6th in driving distance and is gaining .34 SG: Off The Tee in his last 36 rounds. If you shrink the sample, both numbers increase. He is the highest disparity outright play this week, largely due to both of these metrics, but also because he has been efficient playing par 5s this season. This will be critical at Doral.
