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Antonio looks at the title fight between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal that will take place in UFC 251 and breaks down the numbers of both fighters previewing the upcoming bout.
It's almost here, folks. We're just days away from making Fight Island a reality. I know you are disappointed that we're not going to watch athletes fight inside an octagon placed in the middle of a sandy beach, but what we're about to witness will make it to history books. The UFC, making up for the time lost due to the COVID-19 pandemic, will be running four cards in a span of two weeks while putting four titles up for grabs. That, simply put, is going to be insane.
Yas Island will be the place, and starting on July 11, we'll be kicking things off with UFC 251, and three titles will be on the line (welterweight, featherweight, and bantamweight).
In this series of articles, I'll break down the title bouts about to happen over the next weeks on Fight Island. I will present the contestants, look at their past stats, and explore some fantasy numbers to get you ready for fight time. Don't forget to check out all of our MMA Content here at RotoBaller, and give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana!
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Welterweight - Usman vs. Masvidal: Tale of the Tape
Just a few days ago, this paragraph was used to introduce Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns, with the latter being the original fighter who was to face the champ at Fight Island. COVID-19 then made a surprising appearance as Burns tested positive.
Luckily, the UFC and Masvidal somehow reached an agreement to make this dream bout happen. I'm still in shock. We've been waiting for this for months now and are now licking our chops. Same as you, I can't wait for this fight to start!
Kamaru Usman, aka "The Nigerian Nightmare," enters this fight as the reigning welterweight champ. It will be his second title defense in the past year. As for Jorge Masvidal, his 48 fights are the highest before getting a shot at a title. Masvidal is taking this fight on a week's notice. Usman has trained for months with Burns in mind, and will now have to adapt to "Gamebred" in less than seven days. Bring in the fireworks. Give us all of them.
Welterweight - Usman vs. Masvidal: Fighting History
The paths of both Usman and Masvidal includes high-caliber accolades and victories, but they can't be more different in terms of career-arcs. Usman debuted in the UFC in 2015 and knows no defeat since he first stepped inside an octagon. That's nuts and puts the Nigerian at 9-0 in the promotion. He's also been able to win the title and has defended it once successfully after getting it.
Masvidal had his first UFC fight back in 2013 when he debuted with a win versus Tim Means. From that point on, it's been a wild ride for Gamebred. There have been ups and downs as Masvidal went 7-6 from his debut to the end of 2017. He has also been this close to exiting the UFC after a three-fight losing streak from mid-2015 to mid-2016 and then another two-fight string of losses to end 2017. Then, the so-called resurrection happened, and Masvidal became another man in 2019: three wins in eight months, all of them via TKO, including a five-second knockout of Ben Askren one year ago.
Welterweight - Usman vs. Masvidal: Significant Strikes
If you like hard-hitting fighters, you're in for a sweet treat. Usman falls almost four SS short of Masvidal's volume, but both men still throw more than 10 SS per minute toward their foes. They also land over 47% of the strikes they throw, which is excellent, considering the number they attempt per minute.
Masvidal's numbers are particularly staggering. Only two fighters have averaged more SS per minute than him while landing a higher percentage of them (Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Song Kenan), and his 14.6 SS/Min ranks 20th (of 269) among competitors who have fought since 2017.
It's not that Masvidal needs too many strikes to make an impact, though. You can ask Ben Askren about that (3 of 3, 100% accuracy), and that's because the referee couldn't stop Masvidal's pounding earlier, which would have made it a victory on a single knee strike.
The defensive side of both fighters shows how they've had to endure between six and seven strikes per minute going their way, with Masvidal finding it a little bit tougher to prevent them from landing (he absorbs 39.2% of the attempts of his rivals compared to Usman's 39.2%). At the end of the day, though, the raw counting stats sit at the same value, with 2.8 absorbed strikes per minute each.
Welterweight - Usman vs. Masvidal: Takedowns
This is not going to be a wrestling match, that pretty much we know. Even with that, though, it should be highlighted how Usman can use takedowns and grappling to get an edge over Masvidal in this bout. While not overly high, Usman's 0.34 TD attempts per minute aren't bad at all. He's had matches of no-showing his takedown abilities, but on the other side of things, he's also logged 6, 19, and 8 attempts in three of his six fights since 2018.
Masvidal's ground game is a no-go. He doesn't attempt high-volume TDs, nor does he need them. Gamebred style is predicated on his hard-hitting tendency, and that's what he's best at. That's why his 0.07 TDs per minute are way low, with Masvidal just attempting two takedowns at most in any of his last eight fights.
Usman has been immune to takedowns himself, allowing no landings to his rivals since 2017, and it is almost impossible to see Masvidal bringing him down on this one. First, because Masvidal hasn't shown enough to be confident about it happening, and second, because most probably he won't be interested in taking the fight to the ground as it could potentially benefit a much better grappler in Usman.
Welterweight - Usman vs. Masvidal: Fantasy Upside
Usman's run from 2017 to this very day has been incredible. His 113.3 DKFP per fight is hardly beaten by anyone, as Usman's average ranks third among fighters with at least five bouts since 2017, ranking him behind only Max Holloway (115.5) and Amanda Nunes (115.1). Jorge Masvidal's 81.6 DKFP per fight is much lower among that group's ranks. Don't be fooled though, as Usman has logged much more time in the octagon due to his main event booking compared to Masvidal's 15-minute fights.
In order to keep things realistic, I have removed Masvidal's impossible win over Ben Askren from the last data bar (DKFP/Min). Masvidal's victory in just five seconds for 101.5 DKFP gave him a ridiculous 1,218 DKFP/Min in that bout, which obviously skewed the results. The 8.7 DKFP/Min is much closer to Masvidal's true potential.
Career-wise, Usman has never been an early finisher. He only has a couple of KOs in his fight log since he debuted compared to Masvidal's three KOs in a row in his last three fights. Knowing the way Usman has dealt with fights lately, it is reasonable to expect the champion to try and go for a 25-minute war here without extra points mattering that much. Still, with the hatred between these two and the power they bring, it is hard not to see them going for the early knockout.
Welterweight - Usman vs. Masvidal: Prediction
This is the dream fight that every UFC fan around the globe has been waiting for. Most ridiculously and unexpectedly, in the middle of a pandemic, and without a single clue, this fight is finally here at Fight Island of all places. Usman and Masvidal have been throwing verbal jabs at each other since they exchanged words on Super Bowl Sunday a few months ago. Everything has been heating up, and it's about to reach the boiling point next Saturday.
The reigning champ is as good as they come. He has yet to lose a fight, is always in control, and it seems impossible to see him drop below 100 fantasy points on any given day. Although Burns was the one scheduled to fight this weekend, we all knew the true contender was Jorge Masvidal. He's been on a tear since he was reborn in 2019 when he went on to smash Askren in five seconds and get the BMF belt by stopping Nate Diaz in November.
As I see it, Gamebred will go for the kill from the start while Usman will try and make it a long battle and attempt to put Masvidal down on the mat. Much of Masvidal's potential comes from bonus points (early KO), which could surely happen. Given Usman's last fights, though, I have to go with him getting the win on a decision and getting more fantasy points than Jorge at the end of the bout.
