RADIO
If you haven't made adequate communications with your significant other, make the adequate communications to get a divorce attorney on stand by, because this week is all about the Masters. Its lock yourself in the basement/garage/living room season and its the best season. All the best golfers playing under one cloudy sky. I simply cannot wait!
Course history and major experience is going to be the majority of the criteria we apply to our bets this week. Those two areas cannot be stressed enough heading into a Masters that fans, professionals and the golf world all needs ... desperately!
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Recap of Last Week
This is the recipe for a "bad week", as we netted $0.37 on the week. Our placements kept us barely profitable but we made it to the promised land of profitability.
- Outrights -$10
- Placements +$15.37
- Tommy Fleetwood T10 +320
- Adam Scott T20 +220
- Brendon Todd T40 +115
- Aaron Baddeley T40 +180
- Farewell Fiver -$5
Outrights ($10)
I did some research into who I want to bet this year and came across the following trends of past winners at Augusta and in majors in general.
Experience Matters
- 17 (44%) of them had won a major before
- 33 (85%) of them had finished 5th or better
- 37 (95%) of them had finished 9th or better
- 10 (100%) Masters winners had a 6th or better
- 8 (80%) Masters winners had finished 2nd or 1st
We have four outrights this week, all with top-2 finishes in majors and outside of Fitz, multiple top end finishes at Augusta. One of these four is going to win it this week!
Brooks Koepka $4.11 (22-1 Bet365)
He was a runner up here last year, he then went on to win his fifth major the following event, yet Brooks is priced in the 20s at most spots. There has never been a more bipolar golfer to exist than Brooks. When you have more major wins than you have regular PGA tour events, you are by definition, a big game hunter. Koepka has 10 top-4 finishes in his major career since 2017 and has three of those top-4s, at Augusta. Despite his lack of form entering the week, Brooks at this price, is worth paying to get us to the flop. If he were playing better, his price would be substanitally shorter, potentially only betting the 5 time US Open and PGA Championship winner.
There were doubts that he was going to putt with a mallet this week, but the trusty rusty blade is back in the hands of the major terminator. With an Azalea ascension this week, Koepka will tie the likes of Lee Trevino, Nick Faldo and Phil Mickelson for 12th place all time with six majors in their careers. Because of the lack of stats available to us from LIV, I am trying to bash home my point about Brooks using major statistics and majors wins of some of the greatest golfers of our time to explain why 22-1 is such a misprice on our first selection. Whether he wins or not, we should not have got a golfer with the third most major strokes gained (86 rnds) at this price tag.
Matt Fitzpatrick $2.25 (40-1 FanDuel)
I made this bet live on THE ROTOBALLER PGA SHOW as Spencer (@teeoffsports) is also on him this week. Fitz has a US Open win and checked the box of a major top-5 (85% of major winners) prior to hoisting the US Open trophy in 2022. Fitz has had really reliable results around Augusta, but has not yet finished better than 7th back in 2016. He has a 10th and a 14th in his last two appearances which should give him the momentum he is looking for to add a green jacket to his collection of light houses and US Amateur trips down memory lane (winning the US Open at Brookline where also won the US Amateur).
Since 2017, Matt Fitzpatrick has gained the 2nd most strokes off the tee, averaging +1.09 off the tee in his 12 rounds here since 2021. Last year he also had his best putting and iron performance of the three shotlink years which is very encouraging for the chap who has added more distance to his game than a Johhny Depp restraining order. He also hits a ropey draw off the tee which comes in really handy at this venue and probably describes why he has never gained less than +0.48 strokes driving in a single one of his last 12 rounds. He has the skill level to take down another major and after a 5th at the Players and a 10th at the Valero, he seems to be hitting his stride.
Will Zalatoris $1.84 (49-1 Circa --> 45s @FanDuel)
Will Zalatoris has seen his Masters outright price balloon to the original pricing we came to know earlier in the year when he was hacking it around Hawaii at the bottom of the leaderboard. He has since made visits to Torrey Pines, Riviera CC and Bay Hill where he has finishes of T13, T2 and T4. He missed the cut at the Players which is a very volatile course that doesn't quite suit his game and then sucked it up around Texas at the Children's Houston Open. We would have like a top-10 at Houston, but we made this future bet (and a bet you can make now still) knowing how well he has played at Augusta and in Majors.
We will start with Master Will, who has gained the most strokes around Augusta, ranking in the top-24 across all four major strokes gained categories in his 8 rounds of golf here. He has gained the 2nd most strokes putting behind Justin Rose and also finds himself inside the top-10 in SG OTT. In majors, his metrics are even more amazing, gaining the most strokes in majors (33 rnds) of all those in the field this week. He has three runner up finishes in majors and leads the field in approach play at the four biggest events of the year, while still gaining the seventh most strokes putting. He steps it up in majors and this price is straight up disrespectful, and we will be looking to capitalize on this atrocity of a number for skinny Brooks, who has a major switch that he flips almost as well as the 5-time major winner.
Cam Smith 50-1 $1.80 (FanDuel)
Cameron Smith has four top 10 finishes at Augusta in his last six appearances. With his game hardly ever averaging more than +0.5 per round prior to 2021 (+1.79 in 2021 +2.02 in 2022) the fifth and second place finishes here just go to show that Smith does not need to be the best player in the world to contend at Augusta. He has his runner up in a major here and then landed up winning the Open Championship, so we know Smith has a major pedigree. The theme of our card is #disrespect, as Smith has drifted from low 20s to 50-1 off the back of a WD in the LIV event last week.
What is most interesting about Smith's profile at Augusta, is that his irons lead the way in strokes gained (5th) and despite being one of the greatest short game wizards of our time, Smith only ranks 17th ARG and 12 Putting, which are sitll solid, but you would expect Cam to have been a little higher in those two areas in particular. Regardless of what his form looks like entering the week, and now even more so at this price, Smith is always live to win here, and it would make me so happy to be on him for his 2nd major win and his first of potentially many green jackets with how well he has played at this venue in the past.
Placings ($85)
Below is a summary of how each golfer has done in each respective betting market based on the logic that we would bet them every event to return $100 in each market. Obviously, we don't do that, but it gives us a good idea of the profitability for each golfer and whether or not we are missing out on a golfer's upside by not being aggressive enough and bumping them up from a T20 to a T10. Or the other way around for guys who never quite crack the top 10 but always find themselves in the top 20. Let's call this the opportunity cheat sheet.
A Bet For All 88 Golfers
I made a spreadsheet that you can use to find your favorite golfer and see how I would have bet them. Click --> HERE
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball parlay to win $255 (FanDuel)
Sooooo, it would sure be fun if this hit to get us off to an absolute banger of a Masters. A clean +5100 for four legs!
Below is my weekly podcast I do that goes in depth on all the bets you will read in this article. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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