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Who do draft? Mike Riggall compares ADP of quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill and Joe Burrow to determine which player is a better draft value at QB for 2021.
Joe Burrow is a young, ascending star in this league. The second-year product out of LSU is an intelligent football player (coach's son), displays solid arm strength and could very well be a future MVP in this league. Ryan Tannehill's career has been filled with ups and downs until he landed in Tennessee where he finally seems to have settled in and hit his stride as a starting quarterback. While both of these quarterbacks should be top-15 guys at their position, should you draft them this season at their current average draft position (ADP)? If so, which player presents the better value?
Per NFFC data pulled from 12-team leagues, Tannehill currently has an ADP of 98 (QB12) while Burrow has an ADP of 112 (QB13). This means you are likely drafting one of these players as your starting QB in the ninth or 10th round. You need to ask yourself which of these guys is worth that type of draft capital at their ADP.
Now lets dive in a little and take a look at the respective situations for Tannehill and Burrow and figure out if it makes sense to draft these guys and which guy makes sense for you.
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Will Joe Burrow Bounce Back in 2021?
Joe Burrow was a viable fantasy quarterback in 2020 before going down for the season with a torn ACL, but he scored fantasy points because of volume, not because of efficiency. The Bengals offensive line was so bad in 2020 that Burrow was under siege almost every time he dropped back to throw the ball. Because of this, the Bengals often times had to keep backs or tight ends in the formation to block rather than go out on pass routes. Eventually the Bengals simply began getting the ball out of Burrow's hand quicker, leading to an extremely low 6.7 yards-per-attempt, which was below the league average of 7.2 yards-per-attempt.
Burrow's touchdown rate was a mere 3.2% which was one of the lowest rates in the league, a stat that has nowhere to go but up. While he did struggle with efficiency for various reasons, Burrow put the ball in the air 40-or-more times in four of the 10 games he played and eclipsed 300 yards five times. On top of playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, Joe Mixon missed a majority of the season and A.J. Green spent much of 2020 knocking the rust off trying to find chemistry with his rookie quarterback.
Fast forward to August 2021. Burrow is fully cleared after undergoing surgery on his knee and he's moving around well. The Bengals are healthy along the offensive line for the first time in years and in addition to that, they brought in Riley Reiff and drafted Jackson Carman which adds some much needed depth to the unit. Joe Mixon has a clean bill of health, and the addition of Ja'Marr Chase was huge. Moreover, Burrow showed tremendous chemistry with Tyler Boyd last year and Tee Higgins is really expected to ascend in year number two after a fantastic rookie campaign.
Can Ryan Tannehill Maintain His Efficiency?
In 2020, Ryan Tannehill threw a touchdown on 6.9% of his throws which was a very high rate. This touchdown-rate would normally be viewed as unsustainable, but Tannehill had a touchdown-rate of 7.7% the year before which makes him somewhat of an anomaly given the NFL average normally hovers around 4.5%. Derrick Henry presents such a threat in the running game for the Titans that Tannehill's receivers are often left in single coverage, creating high-percentage throws, which contributes to Tannehill's fantastic efficiency.
While Tannehill does put up fantasy points in an efficient manner, his lack of volume is a little concerning. He eclipsed 40-pass attempts in 2020 just three times and threw the ball 30-or-less times on 11 occasions. Tannehill eclipsed the 300-yard mark just three times which is problematic because it makes him a little touchdown-dependent.
Todd Downing is taking over as the Offensive Coordinator for the Titans, and while he's not Arthur Smith, Downing isn't exactly looking to reinvent the Titans offense either. Reports on the Titans indicate that Downing isn't looking to put his stamp on the offense, but rather "tweak" what has already been successful over the last few years. The Titans also added Julio Jones this offseason through a trade with the Falcons which adds a serious threat opposite A.J. Brown. Now that the Titans have two legitimate wide receivers to line up on the outside, it's going to be very hard to slow this team down on offense. If opposing teams decide to stack the box against Derrick Henry and force the Titans to throw, Tannehill could have some monster-games through the air.
Should You Draft Burrow or Tannehill at Their ADP?
Let's first take a look at which players have a similar ADP to both Tannehill and Burrow. Jarvis Landry, Darnell Mooney, Jaylen Waddle, Michael Pittman Jr., Corey Davis, Kenyan Drake and Marquise Brown all have ADPs between 99 and 111, directly between where Tannehill and Burrow are being drafted. In my view, your roster construction through the first eight rounds of your draft is going to play a large role in deciding whether Tannehill should be considered in the ninth round as the 12th quarterback off the board.
If you take a balanced approach to your draft, then you will likely already have three or four wide receivers on your team by the time you're up in the ninth round. At this point in the draft there's still going to be viable options on the board, especially at wide receiver. If you end up taking Tannehill and try to draft some wide receiver depth coming back around in the 10th, you will find yourself picking between Russell Gage, Henry Ruggs III and DeVante Parker. While Gage should have a decent season, his ceiling is somewhat limited and while Parker has gotten it done in the past, we just don't know what the Dolphins passing game is going to look like in 2021 with Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller now on the roster. If you are alright with passing over players like Landry or Pittman and are comfortable selecting Gage or Parker instead, then you won't have any problems drafting Tannehill in the ninth round over a wide receiver.
Conclusion
So who should we take, Tannehill or Burrow?
Based on what was discussed above, you can't really go wrong drafting either player, so it's going to come down to the needs of your team or your convictions on either player. If you believe that Derrick Henry may not be able to sustain the workload he's had over the last few years and the Titans are going to open up the air-attack now that Julio Jones has arrived, then you may want to go with Tannehill. If you want to go with more of a high-volume passer, then you're going to lean towards Burrow.
For me, I am going to draft Joe Burrow over Ryan Tannehill at the current ADP and here's why. At the point where Tannehill is being drafted, there's still several young, ascending wide receivers on the board, such as Michael Pittman Jr., Darnell Mooney and Marquise Brown. In the ninth round, I want to load up on some depth at wide receiver and wait to take Burrow later, because if you don't, the talent really drops off at receiver. In addition to the draft strategy aspect, Burrow is simply in a great position to succeed in 2021, playing behind an improved offensive line, in a high-volume passing offense, with three absolute studs at wide receiver and a true bell-cow running back in Joe Mixon.
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