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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 41: Costa vs. Vettori on 10/23/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Last weekend's featured the absolute worst UFC event held in the past three months going back to Aug. 7th when Lewis vs. Gane highlighted UFC 265. Only that full card, the one from UFC 266 a month later, and a single UFC Vegas event (the one prior to 266) featured fighters that combined for 1,500+ DKFP between them... only for the last two Vegas outings to end at a total of 1,051 and 1,112 DKFP, the former being the latest UFC Vegas 40. It sucked, but the good news is that this thing can only get better come Saturday night.
And it is not that the card isn't stacked, at least at the very top. Two former title contenders will try to beat each other after both lost their last bouts to the same man: reigning MW champions Israel Adesanya. It's surely going to be good fun to see whether any of these two can get a rematch soon pulling after snatching the W from the other this weekend. Über-veteran Alex Caceres will keep building his late magnificent resume on his way to his first title shot, and a bunch of other fighters from both the men and women divisions will be present on the Apex for this one. Here's hoping we don't get to endure another stinker!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 41: Costa vs. Vettori on 10/23/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Marvin Vettori, $8600 - vs. Paulo Costa
Fighting of losers, this one. That might be too harsh, I know, but it is what it is. The last we saw both of these two go at it they were doing so against the same unbeatable nightmare: Israel Adesanya. The reigning MW champ KO'd Paulo Costa in Sep. 2020 only to defeat Vettori via judges' decision nine months after than in June of this very 2021 year. Two shots at a belt, two losses on the bag. But hey, other than those couple of blemishes--if we can even call those defeats that--the track records of Costa and Vettori are spot-on.
Costa was 5-0 before losing to Israel and four of those five Ws came via second-round KO at most. Vettori had it rougher in the first half of his UFC run, but he put together four wins in a row from 2019 up to his 2021 title fight with a Submission among those wins. Vettori has fought the distance in 8 of his 10 fights and has shown both high volumes of striking and grappling (17-of-34 TDs in three fights since 2020), thus carrying a higher fantasy floor. Costa is more of a boom/bust play highly dependent on early-finish bonus points. It's KO-or-bust with the Brazilian, who only has topped 75 SS landed once (his lone decision victory). I'd rather get Vettori's high floor (min. 40+ DKFP even in defeat) with upside for a W and a bounty rather than taking Costas' mega-KO-dependent flier.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Grant Dawson, $9300 - vs. Rick Glenn
None of Dawson nor Glenn appear on the official UFC ranks entering their Saturday fight. That might be this close to change, at least for Dawson. Grant is 5-0 in the UFC and has yet to meet the foe that drops him and hands him the first L in Dana's promo. Glenn is the one tasked with achieving the for-now-impossible feat, and he's not been that bad as to not have at least a chance. Glenn is 3-2 so far in the UFC after losing his debut and winning four of his five next bouts--including his last two.
Glenn didn't fight in the UFC for almost three years in the Jul. 2018-to-Jun. 2021 span, getting scheduled fights canned before his last time out earlier this year. Truth be told, Glenn didn't look rusty at all, scoring himself a first-round, 37-second KO in his comeback. That's neat, folks. And that also granted Glenn a fresh four-fight contract to stay in the UFC for a while longer. All things considered, Dawson is the clear-cut favorite here for a reason. The striking volume isn't high, but Dawson is a takedown machine, has won three bouts early (2 subs, 1 KO--in his last fight) and he's never dropped below a 73-DKFP mark along with three scores of 104+ fantasy points. You know who you should roster this weekend.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Alex Caceres, $7000 - vs. Seung Woo Choi
Seung Woo dropped a couple of bouts to kick his UFC tenure off. That sucked for the Korean, but with a little more pause and time between those two fights and his third, he was able to get his first W back on Dec. 2019 against Suman Mokhtar looking good enough (95-of-187 on SS, no TDs attempted/landed). Then, after that, he disappeared until his comeback this last June in a fight that, once more, ended in W for the Korean via first-round KO.
Alex Caceres will be stepping into the Octagon for the 24th time this weekend. That's bonkers and something only 30 fighters have done since the UFC was born--just for context, as many as 1,841 fighters have fought at least once since then. Caceres, believe it or not, is on a fantastic four-fight winning streak going back more than a year. He's won three times via decision, and another one submitting Austin Springer in the first round. This fight will be more on the striking than the grappling side of things, and as experienced as he is, Caceres is only 33 years old. He could still get a shot at the FW title, and this would mark his fifth W in a row and most definitely a ranked position in the FW leaderboards. Give me Caceres over the Korean even if the latter earned a Fight of the Night award the last we saw him.
DraftKings MMA Women's Bantamweight- UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Joselyne Edwards, $7700 - vs. Jessica-Rose Clark
Typical UFC Fight Night/Vegas contest. Bring in the near-debutant, baby-experienced character, and the kinda-experienced, still-learning fighter on a worrying losing streak and fighting for her life in the UFC and you have the perfect cocktail for an exciting matchup. This time, the former fighter will be Joselyne Edwards and her 1-0 record in the UFC against five-fight "veteran" Jessica-Rose Clark and her 2-3 negative record in the promo to date.
Both of these two have shown a rather high volume of striking with at least 139 SS attempted in all fights (except one) in which they reached the 15-minute mark. The landing rates have varied a bit, and Clark has found it hard to break for more than 76 SSL (only once with 101 in her Nov. 2017 debut). Both girls have attempted to take foes down fairly often (Edwards went for 3 TDs in her debut, Clark is 5-of-9 in her attempts through five fights), and both have at least one reversal in their careers. These two look to be going on completely opposite directions, as Edwards is looking to keep her Ws up while Clark has looked worse by the day with three straight below-45 DKFP outings. The sample is small as hell, I know, but Edwards is my pick here for Saturday's event.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dwight Grant, $7800 - vs. Francisco Trinaldo
This fight is very similar to that presented above between Caceres and Choi. Trinaldo is a 23-fight veteran fighting for the 24th time this weekend after debuting all the way back in June of 2012 (KO win, by the way). Grant, on the other hand, has been inside an Octagon just five times amassing a positive-for-now 3-2 record that includes a W via KO, and also a knockout defeat. Good for Grant, the last time he did it he went on to snatch a W via decision this past April, though he dropped his lone 2020 bout (that of the KO against) in a first-round loss against Daniel Rodriguez.
We're not going to discover anything new in Trinaldo's game these days. He's neither a volume shooter nor a takedown adept. He keeps it on the low, scores his points, and goes to decision more often than not--that being said, Trinaldo has won twice via KO in the past three years, including his last W back in Jul. 2020 before losing his actual last fight earlier this year. Grant has ridiculously low landing rates on low-volume striking, too, and his takedown attempts/successes are barely existent at all. Trinaldo carries the experience and the rounder game and although he's coming off a loss I'd go with him to bounce back this weekend against the shaky Grant.
