Points League Hitters: Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 22

August 22, 2021

Nicklaus Gaut's H2H points league waiver wire pickups for Week 22 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season, identifying free agents hitters to add.

We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax.

Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fits. We know points league players get neglected and we're here to help.

These waiver-wire adds are for the week of August 23 - August 29, looking at players below 50% rostered for ESPN and Yahoo! Stats and rankings are calculated using games through Friday, August 20.

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Know Your System

If you've read me even a little, you likely know what I'm going to say...You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout rates. Every point, in every category, counts.

For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That's the difference between Ronald Acuna Jr. being a top-five hitter versus top-20.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo!'s), even if it's not the platform you actually play on.

For example, my home league started on a now-defunct platform before moving first to ESPN and is now at Fantrax. But our scoring is basically ESPN standard only with two points for stolen bases and a handful of other minor adjustments.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough" calls. IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Waiver Wire Leaderboards

In addition to our overall waiver wire leaderboards, we're deep enough into the season that we'll also start doing a 14-day leaderboard (21 days for pitchers), as well, giving us a window into recent production. The charts are updated prior to Saturday's games, on stats and ownerships. All leaderboards, overall and 14-day, are sorted according to the player's APR*, and clicking on a chart will open a new page with a magnified version.

*APR = Average Platform Ranking - the average platform ranking between ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, and Fantrax (standard point settings)

The Hansels

Let the recency bias wash over you because these players are just so hot, right now. So, just for fun, let's start making a chart of the players in the top-100 of APR over the last two weeks before diving into the position-by-position analysis.

First Base

Must Add

• Frank Schwindel, CHC - Okay, okay...I give, Frank. Schwindel has an 18 APR over the last two weeks, with a .511 wOBA and .390 xwOBA. Entering Saturday, he's 6-for-18 this week, with three multi-hit games but also just one run and two RBI, highlighting the trouble of being on a team as bad as the Cubs. With Schwindel's game, he'll need to hit home runs to stay truly valuable.

Can Add

• Brandon Belt, SF - He has five home runs since returning from the IL on August 5 but Belt has just a .171 AVG over those 47 PA.
• Bobby Dalbec, BOS - Dalbec has a 42 APR over the last two weeks on the back of three home runs and a .543 wOBA, with a .423 xwOBA. However, the more encouraging news in regards to Dalbec's point success is the 15% K% he's run over that time. But even with that small run of plate discipline, Dalbec still sits at a 36.0% K% for the year.
• Christian Walker, ARI - Walker is getting moderately warm, with a 132 APR over the last two weeks, posting a .365 wOBA and .392 xwOBA.

Desperate Adds

• Miguel Cabrera, DET - Still sitting on 499 HR, Cabrera is starting to fade back into a replacement-level hitter after getting hot for June and part of July. Since hitting his last home run on August 11, he's slashing .160/.276/.200 and has a .344 wOBA over the last two weeks that is backed by a .280 xwOBA.

Notable IL

• Miguel Sano, MIN (paternity leave)
• Garrett Cooper, MIA
• Bobby Bradley, BOS
• Evan White, SEA
• Daniel Vogelbach, MIL
• Danny Santana, BOS

Second Base

Must Adds

• Meh.

Can Adds

• Luis Arraez, MIN - Arraez has a .369 wOBA (.355 xwOBA) over the last two weeks, slashing .310/.396/.429, with five runs and five RBI. The problem with Arraez lies more with the offense surrounding him, as the hit stick has been popping for a while:

• Josh Harrison, OAK - Since being traded to Oakland, Harrison is slashing .275/.356/.375 but has kicked it up over the last two weeks, slashing .375/.464/.542, with a .437 wOBA and .421 xwOBA.
• Kolten Wong, MIL - Wong has shown some signs of points life, posting a 97 APR over the last two weeks but a lot of that life has been generated by a bump in runs and RBI, aka the things that are just as dependent on how his supporting cast is doing. Over those two weeks, Wong is slashing just .234/.321/.404, with a .318 wOBA and .725 OPS, so let's not get too excited.
• Cesar Hernandez, CLE - Hernandez has been in a monster funk, running a .224 wOBA and .244 xwOBA over the last two weeks, with a 192 APR.  But what is really out of sorts is a 29.8% K% that is way up from his 21.9% K% for the season.
• Aledmys Diaz, HOU - Diaz has a 61 APR over the last two weeks, slashing .388/.423/.551, with a .418 wOBA. However, that is backed by just a .277 xwOBA so the hammer of regression might swing back soon.
• Jed Lowrie, OAK - Lowrie is a fine low-ceiling fill-in but is really only worth holding when he's on one of his periodic hot streaks.

Desperate Adds

• Garrett Hampson, COL - With Colorado on the road all week, you're just crossing your fingers.
• Brendan Rodgers, COL - Rinse, repeat.

Notable IL

• Nick Madrigal, CHW
• Jon Berti, MIA
• Christian Arroyo, BOS
• Chris Owings, COL

Third Base

Must Adds

• Jeimer Candelario, DET - Aww, c'mon...You're kidding, right? Still only 31% on Yahoo and 41% on ESPN? Candelario has a .411 wOBA and .408 xwOBA, with a 28 APR over the last two weeks, as opposed to last week when he had a 32 APR over the previous two weeks. Huh...It seems that hitting more and striking out less leads to good point production:

• Evan Longoria, SF - Since returning from the IL, Longoria has gone 5-for-13 and started four games at third base (with Kris Bryant remaining in the outfield). He was relegated to pinch-hitting on Friday after feeling some lingering soreness in his hand but it seems initially that the Giants are plugging him right back into an everyday role, even as he comes back to a much more crowded offense. Don't forget just how good Longoria was prior to his injury in June, slashing .280/.376/.516, with nine home runs, 28 runs scored, and 30 RBI. If he's playing every day, Longoria is an add in all point formats.

Can Adds

• Abraham Toro, SEA - The Toro train has slowed down as of late, with just a 177 APR over the last two weeks. But he's also gotten pretty unlucky, attested to by his .264 wOBA being backed by a .352 xwOBA over that time.
• Hunter Dozier, KC - Dozier breaks into the top-100 APR over the last two weeks and is now up to a 168 APR for the season, with a .376 wOBA and .357 xwOBA.
• Carter Kieboom, WSH

Desperate Adds

• Patrick Wisdom, CHC - Wisdom has three home runs in the last two weeks but has just a .186 AVG and .259 wOBA (.232 xwOBA) over that stretch, with a 43.5% K%. Not wise.
• Brian Anderson, MIA - The best thing you can say about Anderson is that he racks up plate appearances, with 51 PA over the last two weeks. This ends the good things about BrIan Anderson.
• J.D. Davis, NYM - With a 32.5% K% for the year (and 36.0% over the last two weeks), Davis is basically unplayable in leagues with a strikeout penalty. And even if it doesn't have one, your team is likely in dire straits if you need to use him on the daily.

Notable IL 

• Not unless you consider Charlie Culberson notable.

Shortstop

Must Adds

• Amed Rosario, CLE - Rosario loves giving us a rollercoaster and has looked kind of hot over the last two weeks, posting a 54 APR and .371 wOBA, however, a .246 xwOBA speaks to an upcoming downtick. But it's hard to knock his recent knockery; since August 1, Rosario is slashing .355/.375/.513 over 80 PA, with a .377 wOBA and 139 wRC+, collecting at least one hit in 15-of-17 games and multiple hits in nine of those.
• Miguel Rojas, MIA - Since the All-Star break, Rojas is slashing .311/.351/.467, with a .351 wOBA and 124 wRC+. He's on a bad team but is back to batting leadoff, rarely strikes out with an average walk-rate, and runs a high average. This is a safe (and high) profile that plays excellently in most point formats.

Can Adds

•  Nicky Lopez, KC - Lopez is worth an add for those searching for speed in roto but his recent value uptick in points (84 APR over the last two weeks) looks rather tenuous considering how empty of non-SB counting stats his line has been. But he doesn't strike out and racks up PAs so he could be a useful compiler, especially in leagues with a strikeout penalty.
• Paul DeJong, STL - DeJong was starting to show some positive signs but missed a few games dealing with a bad back and then promptly went 0-f0r-9 in his first two games back. But he went 2-for-4 last night and has a .356 wOBA and .351 wOBA over the last two weeks.
• Jonathan Villar, NYM - In his last 15 games, Villar is slashing .278/.328/.500 over 59 PA, with four home runs and a .354 wOBA.

Desperate Adds

• Luis Urias, MIL - He has a 48 APR over the last two weeks but since going 5-for-6 with two home runs on August 12, Urias is 3-for-17, with a .196 wOBA.
• J.P. Crawford, SEA - Crawford has really struggled in the second half but continues to bat leadoff and has collected multiple hits in three of his past five games.

Notable IL

• Nico Hoerner, CHC
• Freddy Galvis, PHI
• Niko Goodrum, DET
• Leury Garcia, CHW

Outfielders

Must Adds

• Tyler Naquin, CIN - Up to a 107 APR for the season, Naquin has a 32 APR over the last two weeks, with a .464 wOBA and .495 xwOBA, lighting things up on Friday night in a win over the Marlins, going 2-for-4, with a home run and triple.
• LaMonte Wade Jr. - Wade has slowed down as of late, with a .325 wOBA and 29.5% K% over the last two weeks, compared to his season marks of a .352 wOBA and 24.9% K%. But just by virtue of playing every day (and leading off most), Wade should continue to hold excellent value in point leagues. As a point of comparison, looking at season-long marks on a points per-PA basis, Wade has virtually the same rates as Aaron Judge, on all four platforms. He's good.

Can Adds

• Rafael Ortega, CHC - The power boom has gone poof but Ortega still has a .382 wOBA over the last two weeks and continues to mostly bat leadoff for the Cubs.
• Connor Joe, COL - Joe has taken over a starting role in the outfield for now but leaves the comforts of Coors this week, with series in Chicago and Los Angeles. But he has a 26 APR over the last two weeks, with a .401 wOBA and .373 xwOBA, playing six games on the road and six at home.
• Anthony Santander, BAL - Santander's .356 wOBA over the last two weeks is backed by a .411 xwOBA but he continues to deal with a sore ankle.
• Jarred Kelenic, SEA - The much-hyped rookie only has a .327 wOBA over the last two weeks but that is backed by a .375 xwOBA and a more respectable 20.9% K%.
• Andrew Vaughn, CHW - Vaughn has been even-steven in 2021, posting a .340 wOBA and .340 xwOBA over 387 PA. But he's been running hotter lately, with a .430 wOBA and .386 wOBA over the last two weeks.
• Lewis Brinson, MIA - Brin-Diesel was living his life one-quarter mile at a time but has been running on fumes lately, going 1-for-18 in his past five games.
• Bradley Zimmer, CLE - Over the last two weeks, Zimmer has three home runs and three stolen bases, with a .418 wOBA and .425 xwOBA.
• Brandon Nimmo, NYM - Nimmo returned from his hand injury on July 3 and slashed .282/.425/.388 in July before tweaking his hamstring in early August. Over his next seven games (pinch-hitting in three), he went just 2-for-22 but has started to wake up over his last dozen games, posting a .260 AVG and collecting multiple hits in games.
• Lorenzo Cain, MIL - The only problem with Cain is his playing time, with the veteran getting more and more days off as Milwaulkee looks to keep him healthy for the playoffs.

Desperate Adds

• Justin Upton, LAA
• Ian Happ, CHC
• Phil Gosselin, LAA
• Brandon Marsh, LAA
• Chas McCormick, HOU

Notable IL

• Akil Baddoo, DET
• Kyle Lewis, SEA
• Nick Senzel, CIN
• Clint Frazier, NYY
• Aaron Hicks, NYY
• Kole Calhoun, ARI
• Miguel Andujar, NYY
• Yonathan Daza, COL
• Adam Engel, CHW
• Harold Ramirez, CLE
• Willie Calhoun, TEX

Catchers

Must Adds

• Travis d'Arnaud, ATL - Unless you already have one of a handful of catchers, there is no reason to leave d'Arnaud on the wire. His biggest disadvantage is Atlanta only having five games this week but nearing 50% rostered on most platforms, time is running out to add le catcher.

Can Adds

• Mitch Garver, MIN - Since returning from the IL on July 19, Garver is slashing .258/.370/.565, with a .396 wOBA.
• Tyler Stephenson, CIN - Stephenson has been excellent these last few weeks and has a .459 wOBA (.393 xwOBA) over the last two, posting a 118 APR. "If only Tucker Barnhart didn't exist", he thought whimsically.
• Daulton Varsho, ARI - Varsho has a .427 wOBA (.419 xwOBA) over the last two weeks but also diminishing playing time, with just 23 PA over that period.
• Carson Kelly, ARI - Kelly keeps having playing time siphoned away by Varsho, with just 31 PA over the last two weeks. Over that time he has a .365 wOBA but just a .306 xwOBA.

Desperate Adds

• All catcher adds are desperate adds.

Notable IL

• Eric Haase, DET
• James McCann, NYM
• Danny Jansen, TOR
• Roberto Perez, CLE

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