The Value of Tanking - How Much Does the Top Pick Matter?

December 26, 2020

Dom Petrillo weighs in on the debate on whether the New York Jets should have tanked for Trevor Lawrence or if they might be just fine with the #2 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

With all the talk around the Jets winning over the Rams and the Jaguars jumping over them in the draft, it is a good time to actually see if tanking really works. Everyone has a different opinion. Not just on whether it works, but whether you even want your team to do it at all.

Unlike the NBA, where one player in a group of five can make a huge change, on a roster with 53 men and 40 who play on a given week, it is less valuable in the NFL. But what do the numbers say?

We will not look at the 2020 or the 2019 draft as it is too soon to determine whether the right choices were made. Therefore, we will take a look at the number one and number two draft picks from 2015-2018 and see which of the players are having better careers. Of course, some of this is objective but we should have a sense of whether the top pick makes a bigger impact than the one immediately after.

2018 Draft

#1 Baker Mayfield - QB, Cleveland Browns vs #2 Saquon Barkley - RB, New York Giants

This one was hotly debated at the time of the draft. It is even more so now that Barkley has missed basically the entire 2020 season. It was not debated on whether Mayfield or Barkley should be number one. Instead, it was debated which of the many QBs in the draft should have been number one. Some liked Josh Rosen. Others were in the Sam Darnold camp. Even others, like myself, were in the Josh Allen camp. The Browns decided to go with the personality that is Baker Mayfield.

After one season, it was seemingly a great decision. He set the all-time record for TD passes by a rookie with 27, accomplishing this feat in only 12 full games. He also showed the accuracy which Cleveland had seen from his college tape in Oklahoma. Coming into the 2019 season, things were looking up. Odell Beckham Jr. was joining the team, Jarvis Landry was a steady influence in the locker room and Mayfield had the coach he wanted in Freddy Kitchens. (pause for laughter).

But things did not work out. Nick Chubb had a massive season. He finished second in the NFL in rush yards but nothing else worked for the team, especially the passing offense. The Browns finished 22nd in passing yardage with 22 TD and 21 INT. Only Jameis Winston turned the ball over more frequently than Mayfield.

2020 has been a far different story, however. Since coming off the bye in Week 11, Mayfield is the fantasy QB2. He has led the Browns to the brink of a playoff berth and he has averaged more than 250 yards and two TD over the last month of the season. Mixed with the output of Chubb and even Kareem Hunt in the run game, Cleveland has become a dangerous team. And they are doing so without Beckham in the lineup.

After a miserable sophomore season, Mayfield has come back strong with 25 TD and only eight interceptions this season. With games left against the Jets and Steelers, he may have his first season of 30 TD passes. While not stellar by the standards of Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers, it is quite impressive on a run first team with limited weapons at the WR position. A 3:1 TD to INT ratio is nothing to sneeze at either. You would have to say for all the issues of 2019, Cleveland is so far joyous with the return they have so far received from him.

Saquon Barkley is more difficult to decipher. He is clearly one of the best running backs in the NFL. He is also unfortunately good at getting hurt. He missed much of last season with a high ankle sprain before tearing his ACL early this season. This means he has missed most of two of his first three seasons in the NFL. This is tough for any position but especially for the RB position which does not have a long shelf life to begin with.

Another negative for Barkley is his team. The Giants are not good. They are in the middle of a seemingly endless rebuild. Barkley, like Christian McCaffrey in Carolina, is being wasted on a bad team. There is hope in Carolina. There is not as much in New York, especially if Dave Gettleman remains as the GM overseeing things.

His rookie season was nothing short of great. He had 1,307 rush yards and 11 rush TD. Add to these 91 receptions for 721 yards and four receiving TD and you can see why he won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

His second season was disrupted by injury. He still played in 13 games and ran for over 1,000 yards with 1,003. His TD numbers regressed though. Going from 15 total TD to eight and his receptions dropped from 91 to 52 meaning he was far less involved in a sputtering offense with Daniel Jones behind center instead of Eli Manning.

Should the Giants want to keep him for the long haul, they certainly can. He is easily going to get the fifth-year option picked up. Depending on how he does come back from injury in 2021, the team will likely sign him long term before this even takes effect. Do not expect him to get Ezekiel Elliott or McCaffrey money. To be far, they should not have either. Thus, is life in the NFL though.

Barkley will likely be great again if New York can keep improving the offensive line. But at this point he is still less valuable than a starting quarterback even when healthy. For this reason, Cleveland is certainly the winner in this one. Mayfield is looking more mature and growing with a playoff team. Since coming into the starting lineup, he has yet to miss a game and he has improved his team immensely while the Giants are still stuck in neutral.

2017 Draft

#1 Myles Garrett - DE, Cleveland Browns vs #2 Mitchell Trubisky - QB, Chicago Bears

In one aspect, this one is difficult. One of these players is a QB and the other is a defensive player. On the other hand, it is also simple. Cleveland certainly wins this one.

Garrett was the clear number one choice coming out. There was no surefire bet at any other position. He has also lived up to his top pick status. He has already been given a shiny new contract keeping him with the team. Despite his little issue with Mason Rudolph last season, he is one of the best pass rushers in the NFL today. He has struggled a bit the last month since coming back from his bout with COVID, but this is to be expected and we can not hold it against anyone.

Trubisky has been an unmitigated disaster for Chicago. From the start of his time there being picked after the team had just signed Mike Glennon, his days were numbered. San Francisco was able to pull the wool over the eyes of the Bears and get a king’s ransom for a jump of one spot. Of course, Solomon Thomas has not worked out for the 49ers either. So, there is that. Trubisky has been worse though. He was drafted totally based on potential. He had limited action at UNC in college only starting for one season. The potential was more than the return here. To top it off, the team traded for Nick Foles this off-season to basically replace him at first chance which they did at halftime against the Atlanta Falcons.

It turns out no matter where Foles is, if it is not Philadelphia, he stinks. The team was forced to return to Trubisky in recent weeks and he has performed admirably. The team has already failed to pick up his fifth-year option. This means if they want to keep him, it will have to be a long-term deal getting done. With Foles still on the books for next season, this may not be something able to be accomplished. But stranger things have happened.

Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy should be gone after this season. If they are not, something is wrong with ownership in Chicago. The new coach may want to work with Trubisky. He may have seen something in the past month to work with. It will be difficult as Allen Robinson is likely on his way out also. As much as the Bears may want to re-sign him, it is not going to happen.

Trubisky, like Jameis Winston who we will talk about later, is set to become a great backup somewhere. He is a player who does good things in spurts but will wilt if left out in the sun too long. He could get a chance to be a starter somewhere, but it will only be in a competition with someone else. Perhaps a battle between he and Derek Carr in Las Vegas.

Garrett is a star though. A Pro Bowler who will wreck offenses in the AFC North for many more years. The Browns struck gold not just with him but with Baker Mayfield the following season. They are the offensive and defensive lynchpins of the Browns team and has directly led to the success of Cleveland. Give a massive win to the top pick here.

2016 Draft

#1 Jared Goff - QB, Los Angeles Rams vs Carson Wentz - QB, Philadelphia Eagles

In another matchup of two QBs, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz may actually be the best 1-2 duo. A lot of this though is due to the teams they were drafted to. Mostly because neither of the teams tanked to get them. Instead, they traded to go get their guy. For the most part, despite Wentz's struggles this season, it as worked out.

Both of these teams have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl during the player's tenure. Wentz was unfortunate to get injured during the season and thus unable to play. Before his injury though, he was the MVP favorite and got the Eagles to the number one seed.

Since then, it has been a bit of a downward spiral. He has dealt with more injury which has caused the once-mobile QB to become more like Jared Goff. He has the accuracy and up until this year of turmoil was able to avoid the turnover plague. This season has gone so bad though, that he may be on his way out of town. He will be leaving a richer man though as both he and Goff were able to turn their Super Bowl runs into second contracts from their teams.

Wentz has been terrible this season. There is no way around it. He has gone from 62% completions in his career to just over 57% this season. He has also gone from a career 3:1 TD to INT ratio of 97 to 35 to a 1:1 this year with 16 TD compared to 15 interceptions. These are the numbers and the main reason Philadelphia struggled to a 3-8-1 record during his 12 starts before the team mercifully moved on to Jalen Hurts.

Will this be the end for him in Philly? I do not know. He was given the new contract which makes him hard to trade unless the Eagles are willing to make a Brock Osweiler type of deal. Otherwise, they might be stuck with him. He is not done though. If he can get his confidence back and continue to run more the way he started to this season, he will have a resurgence in a new city. He would be a perfect fit in Indianapolis under former offensive coordinator Frank Reich. Let us hope this happens for him.

Goff, on the other hand, is not going anywhere. Los Angeles is again battling for the NFC West and is a top-four Super Bowl favorite out of the NFC. Yes, the conference is down and lacks the Chiefs-level team, but you can only beat the teams you play. With their defense leading the way, they can make a run.

Many see Goff as a puppet for Sean McVay. He very well may be. But it works for them. He is a game manager who has his moments, both good and bad at times. Carson Wentz is barely over .500 as a starter at 35-32. Goff is well over .500 at 42-26. In a much tougher division, he has led his team to a far better record. Some of his surrounding talent has been better. Todd Gurley was great for a couple of seasons and the receivers are always loaded there. But this does not explain everything. Goff is still a good QB. He has a higher career completion percentage, more career pass yards, his yards per attempt is a full yard higher and his TD and interception numbers are comparable at 107 and 54 compared to Wentz at 113 and 50.

I would have to give this round to the Rams. Yes, the Eagles have the Super Bowl win. Other than that season, they have been relatively unimpressive under Wentz. The Rams have made the Super Bowl and could make another this season. Even in their down years, like 2019, they went 9-7 only missing the playoffs due to tie-breaker. Most importantly, Los Angeles still wants Goff to start for them. This is what matters.

2015 Draft

#1 Jameis Winston - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Marcus Mariota - QB, Tennessee Titans

This one is hard to figure out. If Chip Kelly had his way, the Philadelphia Eagles would have traded everything but their stadium to get Mariota. Instead, the Titans stayed firm and got stuck with the second of two misses.

Both players came in with much promise but little else. There were questions about the maturity level of Winston. These concerns were proven to be founded in reality after more incidents crept up as a professional. In the case of Mariota, we did not know how the Oregon offense would prepare him for the NFL.

Both players started off solid enough. Mariota led the Titans to the playoffs and multiple 9-7 records. His rush ability at the start helped him move the offense despite the lackluster weapons surrounding him.

After a number of injuries, including ankle injuries, he was not the same. Whereas he did not throw an interception in the red zone his first two seasons, he started to become skittish and thus less effective. It got to the point where the team had to trade for Ryan Tannehill just to make sure they had a healthy signal-caller as the injuries continued to pile up. After yet another injury in 2019, Tannehill took over and the team took off.

In his career with Tennessee, Mariota compiled 29 wins compared to 23 losses. He had a total of 13,007 pass yards and 76 TD along with 45 interceptions. His rushing, although going down year over year managed to top 1,000 yards in his Titans career finishing at 1,399 yards and 11 TD. We saw in Week 15 that he still has the ability as he ran for an additional 88 yards and one TD on nine carries in his first action with Las Vegas. If he is able to find a team who needs a QB, there is still a chance he can become a starter once again. A late-career resurgence might just be in order.

As for Winston. He is seemingly destined to be a backup somewhere. At worst, a fringe starter who comes in and competes for a starting job. He is far too erratic to be handed unfettered control of an offense.

Yes, he can throw for 5,000 yards and 30 TD like he did in 2019. This was with two great receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Any team he goes to will not have the same options for him to rely on. This means his 30 interceptions from 2019 would also be likely to repeat. Not something any coach wants to see from a QB coming into the offense.

He would make a nice backup for a team with a fragile starting QB or a team looking to challenge their starter. A team like Denver to push Drew Lock or if he can go to a team who can run the ball thus taking the pressure off him would be even better. A team like San Francisco would make perfect sense for this framework. Besides this type of situation, Winston would not be a good starting QB in the NFL and is set to never get another chance to be one. As a Saints fan, I sincerely hope Sean Payton was joking about him being next up in New Orleans.

It is hard to draw a conclusion on a winner in this one. Both teams have dispatched their player to another team. Both are now backups in their new locations. Only five years after entering the league, both are afterthoughts. The slight edge goes to Mariota only due to the playoff berths, but in actuality, they both lost.

Conclusion

Is tanking worth it? It depends on who you ask.

Speaking to a few Jets fans I am friends with, they are convinced Trevor Lawrence is the player they want. They are mad to not have the opportunity to find out what lies ahead with him. One of them said this win to drop them out of the first pick hurt more than any other moment in Jets history, even more than the AFC championship game losses.

Whether tanking works or not, the fan bases of most of these teams want the opportunity to get better. This means getting the number one pick over the number two to acquire a potential superstar that could be the face of the franchise.

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