Monday Night Football Starts and Sits: Falcons vs. Packers

October 5, 2020

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for Week 4 of Monday Night Football. Dan Fornek analyzes in-depth matchups with a detailed breakdown of the Falcons and Packers.

Thanks to a COVID outbreak in Tennessee and a litany of injuries, fantasy players are finding themselves scouring the waiver wire for anybody who logs considerable snaps to fill their fantasy teams out every week. Luckily, this week we get a Monday night matchup that can be an explosive game.

Both the Packers and Falcons come into the week with considerable injuries to important players. Both teams played Week 3 without their most important receiver (Julio Jones and Davante Adams) and both teams lost a wide receiver with a significant role during the game (Russell Gage and Allen Lazard). Unfortunately, Lazard will be gone for multiple weeks while Gage has a chance to clear concussion protocol and suit up on Monday.

This should be a fun game to watch if you’re a fan of watching teams score, which is perfect for your fantasy lineup. Without further ado, here are your Week 4 Monday night matchups to watch (and play) for your fantasy football lineups. You can read about the matchup breakdowns and start/sit recommendations for the Patriots vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football game as well.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

• Game time: Monday 10/5 @ 8:15 EST
• Game line: Green Bay -7
• Over/Under: 56.5

Must-Starts

Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)

Three legitimate receiving weapons and a terrible defense have once again made Matt Ryan a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2020. Ryan is currently averaging 21.95 fantasy points per week while throwing for 961 yards and seven touchdowns with two interceptions in three weeks. Ryan is throwing the ball nearly 40 times per game and has been boosted by playing two of the worst secondaries in the NFL to this point (Seattle and Dallas), along with having the Week 3 game without Julio Jones. The Packers are a middle-of-the-road defense against opposing quarterbacks this season (20 fantasy points allowed per week) despite allowing 791 passing yards, seven touchdowns, and generating two interceptions on the season. Ryan has the volume and the matchup to deliver another top-10 performance on Monday night.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)

Aaron Rodgers has continued his assault against opposing secondaries in 2020, completing 21 of 32 passes for 283 yards and three touchdowns without Davante Adams in Sunday night’s game against the New Orleans Saints. Unfortunately, Allen Lazard was lost to a core muscle injury after that contest and Davante Adams is still working his way back from a hamstring injury. Thankfully, the Packers invested early draft picks in wide receivers Jordan Love and A.J. Dillon in case injuries hampered their wide receivers… *checks notes*… never mind, that is a first-round quarterback and a second-round running back. Luckily, Aaron Rodgers has made a career of boosting less than adequate receiving options, and Davante Adams should return to face a fantasy defense that ranks last in points allowed per week (33.5) and total touchdowns surrendered (12) to quarterbacks this season.

Aaron Jones (RB, GB)

Aaron Jones has developed into one of the most trustworthy running back options in the NFL this season on the back of a consistent workload each week. On the season, Jones has 50 carries for 303 yards and four rushing touchdowns while adding 10 receptions for 95 yards and an additional score. Jones is averaging 16.6 carries, six targets, and 3.3 receptions per game and has scored at least once in each contest. With Davante Adams ailing and Allen Lazard out, Jones could see those pass game numbers increase for the short term. The Falcons have done well against running backs this season (17.9 points per week), but some of that can be attributed to the fact that Atlanta has had big leads they have squandered in every game this season.

Todd Gurley (RB, ATL)

The Todd Gurley experience hasn’t been anything special in Atlanta as he has failed to eclipse 100 total yards in any game so far this season. On a positive note, Gurley has at least 15 touches and 56 yards in each game and has gotten into the end zone twice this season. With injuries and two teams unexpectedly on bye, it is highly unlikely you can find any player that will offer the touch floor Gurley will with this late of notice, so he is at least worth a play as an RB2 or flex player this week. The Packers have been the third-worst defense in fantasy football against running backs this season, allowing 535 total yards and five total touchdowns to the position on the season.

Julio Jones* (WR, ATL)

*Monitor practice participation up to kickoff on Sunday to be sure Julio is good to go*

2020 has been a rollercoaster of a season for Julio Jones. He annihilated the overwhelmed Seattle secondary in Week 1 (nine catches for 157 yards). He was hampered by a bad hamstring in Week 2 against an equally hapless Cowboys secondary (two catches for 24 yards) before missing Week 3 against the Bears with the hamstring strain. Julio is still a matchup nightmare, and at the time of this article, looks to be ready to go for Monday night. The Packers are a middle-of-the-pack defense against wide receivers this season (24.4 points allowed per week) but may struggle to have anybody match up with Julio if he is healthy. If he is active, he is worth starting.

Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)

Calvin Ridley has been everything the Falcons hoped for, navigating Julio Jones’ balky hamstring to emerge as a legitimate WR1 (and the WR1 overall in fantasy football) this season. Ridley has been targeted 35 times, catching 21 passes for 349 yards and four touchdowns in just three games. Ridley has been hampered in practice by an ankle injury this week, but at this juncture, there is no reason to believe he won’t suit up against Green Bay. Ridley is an automatic start, but even more so with Julio potentially being active and taking away primary coverage from him.

Davante Adams* (WR, GB)

*Monitor practice participation up to kick off on Sunday to be sure Davante is good to go*

Like Julio, Davante Adams was a late scratch for last Sunday's game thanks to a hamstring injury. In Week 1, he erupted with 14 receptions on 17 targets for 156 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings. Adams only played 52% of the Packers’ offensive snaps against the Lions in Week 2 before being held out with the hamstring in Week 3. If Adams does suit up this week, he will be impossible to avoid putting in your starting lineups because the Packers don’t have anybody else to play. The Falcons are the third-worst fantasy secondary this season, allowing a ridiculous 32 points per week to wide receivers (a mark that would be comically bad if the Seattle and Dallas secondaries didn’t exist).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB)

Many hopes and dreams were pinned on Marquez Valdes-Scantling in a primetime Week 3 matchup against the Saints’ secondary… and those dreams were destroyed. After seeing 13 targets and catching seven passes for 160 yards and a touchdown in the first two games, MVS registered just one catch (on four targets) for five yards despite playing 92% of the snaps against the Saints while having a front-row seat to the Allen Lazard breakout. Well, MVS will get another shot to erupt against a terrible secondary once again. Lazard is out and MVS is one of three healthy receivers with NFL snaps on the Packers roster heading into Week 4. Hamstring injuries can be fickle, making Davante Adams a risky play as well. If anything happens to Adams (or he can’t play), MVS becomes the only legitimate receiver for Aaron Rodgers against a bottom three secondary in the NFL today.

Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)

Thanks to a litany of injuries (and general lack of competition), Robert Tonyan has emerged as the one tight end Aaron Rodgers feels comfortable throwing to. Tonyan has played in at least 60% of the Packers’ offensive snaps in each game this season and has emerged as a viable passing game target the past two weeks, logging eight targets, seven receptions, 75 yards, and two touchdowns. The Falcons are the second-worst defense in football this season against tight ends, allowing 15.3 fantasy points per week to the position thanks to 27 receptions, 238 yards, and four touchdowns to Greg Olsen, Dalton Schultz, and Jimmy Graham, three options that would hardly qualify as game-breaking passing options at this stage in their careers.

Consider Sitting

Russell Gage (WR, ATL)

While healthy, Russell Gage proved that he is a viable receiving option in the Falcons’ explosive passing game. In his first two games against Seattle and Dallas, Gage was targeted 21 times, catching 15 passes for 160 yards and a touchdown. Gage looked poised to repeat that role against the Bears but logged just two receptions for 26 yards before being knocked out of the game with a concussion. Gage is currently in concussion protocol, which makes him risky to lean on as a WR3 or flex play this week. Luckily, he has an extra day to clear protocol and be ready. Head injuries can be fickle and easily repeatable, which makes Gage a player you could easily replace with a good waiver wire option for one more week if needed.

Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)

Hayden Hurst had his least productive day as a Falcon in Week 3 against the Bears, catching just one of three targets for one yard and a touchdown that saved his value for the week. Hurst has now caught a touchdown pass in his last two games. On the season, he has averaged just over five targets, three receptions, and 37 yards per game. He likely won’t see that level of luck against a Packers Defense that is stout up the middle, allowing just 4.6 points per week to tight ends this season. Hurst becomes a better play if Gage and Julio are unable to suit up, but could be phased out of the game plan if they are both active.

Potential Sleepers

Brian Hill (RB, ATL)

Despite Todd Gurley being the back to utilize in Atlanta, Brian Hill has quietly begun seeing more and more work in the Atlanta offense. Hill jumped from 20% usage in Week 2 to 34% usage in Week 3, seemingly cementing his role as Todd Gurley’s primary backup. Hill had nine carries for 58 yards and a touchdown while adding three targets, a reception, and 22 yards against the Bears in Week 3. Hill is a solid player but isn’t promised enough consistent work to be a weekly starter in fantasy lineups. If you were desperate (and something happened to Gurley), you could find yourself in an excellent position if needed though. It would just take a perfect storm scenario to get there.

Jamaal Williams (RB, GB)

Jamaal Williams has quietly carried his decent role into the 2020 season, carrying the ball 21 times for 98 yards while adding five catches and 24 yards through three games. Williams has also played at least 31% of the Packers’ offensive snaps in each game this season, showing he is still getting some consistent work every week. He also has served the Packers as their primary receiving back in years past. With a slew of injuries to the wide receiver corps, Williams may see more work in the backfield if the Packers opt to utilize Aaron Jones’ excellent receiving ability at wide receiver to make up for the injuries.

Darius Shepard (WR, GB)

With Allen Lazard out for multiple weeks, seldom used second-year receiver Darius Shepard will assume the role of the Green Bay WR3. Shepard wasn’t targeted against the Saints, but he did log 37% of the offensive snaps for the Packers in that game. Shepard won’t be the sexiest name out there, but he did catch nine passes for 147 yards as a rookie last season and Rodgers has publicly commented that Shepard had one of the better camps of the Packers wide receivers. If you’re desperate, he is an option that will likely remain on your waiver wire until kickoff, giving you the chance to pivot off any of the injured wide receivers you start in your lineup.

Jace Sternberger (TE, GB)

Through three games, it seems that Robert Tonyan is everything we hoped Jace Sternberger would be this season for the Packers. However, Week 3 gave a glimmer of hope for all the Sternberger truthers out there. Sternberger was targeted three times, catching all three attempts for 36 yards against the Saints in Week 3. More importantly, Sternberger has seen his snap share rise each week, starting at 15% in Week 1 before jumping to 22% in Week 2 and finally peaking with 32% in Week 3. The injury to Davante Adams has had an impact on that number the last two weeks, but with Allen Lazard out, it is possible Sternberger settles into a big slot role for Aaron Rodgers. Playing him is a very high-risk play until we see what his role looks like in the offense without Lazard, but he would make a zero-floor/massive ceiling play against the Falcons' awful defense against tight ends.

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