Monday Night Football Starts and Sits: Patriots vs. Chiefs

October 5, 2020

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Patriots vs. Chiefs MNF game in Week 4. Justin Carter analyzes the matchups with a detailed breakdown.

Well, we get an extra Monday night football game this week, kicking off in just a few hours between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots. Why? Because of a Cam Newton positive COVID-19 test on Saturday morning, which forced the postponement of the game.

This might not be the most exciting football game in the world, with a Patrick Mahomes vs. Brian Hoyer quarterback battle set to take place, but it's still a Monday night doubleheader tonight, so there's that!

Let's talk about the matchup and what to expect from certain players. You can read about the matchup breakdowns and start/sit recommendations for the Falcons vs. Packers Monday Night Football game as well.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

• Game time: Monday 10/5 @ 7:00 EST
• Game line: Kansas City -11
• Over/Under: 50

Must-Starts

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

New England has allowed seven passing touchdowns already. Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. Add those things together and you get Mahomes as an obvious top-end QB1. I really don't think we need to say more here, right? This isn't the 2019 Patriots Defense.

Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)

Per Rotowire, Hill has played 188 snaps and has lined up in the slot on 125 of them. The Patriots have struggled to contain slot receivers, including letting Hunter Renfrow grab six passes for 84 yards and a score last week. Tyreek Hill is arguably the best receiver they've faced this season. This feels like the big Hill game that we've been waiting for, and I think it's worth paying up for him in DFS this week. 

Travis Kelce (TE KC)

I know that Bill Belichick has done a good job game-planning Kelce out of things in past meetings between these teams, but the Patriots don't have the same defensive talent they've had in the past and while they're allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, Kelce is Kelce. He's a TE1 every week from now until whenever the final game he plays in the NFL is.

Julian Edelman (WR, NE)

I don't love the Patriots passing attack this week, but Edelman should see plenty of volume. He's gotten at least six targets in each game and should rebound from last week's two-catch, 23-yard outing. I think my overall pessimism about the Patriots this week drags Edelman down a bit for me, but he's easily the one pass catcher here I'd want to play.

Consider Sitting

Brian Hoyer (QB, NE)

Look, I've always been a fairly big supporter of Brian Hoyer, back to the days when he was starting for the Texans. He's a fine backup quarterback. But he is a backup quarterback who is being thrown into the fire against a Chiefs Defense that has slowed Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson down this year. Hoyer's not those guys. I was barely a fan of Newton when he was expected to be the starter.

N'Keal Harry (WR, NE)

The Chiefs have allowed just 315 yards and one touchdown to wide receivers and Harry is coming off season lows in targets, receptions, yards, and snap share. This is not a game where I want to have Harry in my lineup outside of a deep league where I don't have a better option.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)

Give the Patriots Defense some credit here, as they allow the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. I'm fairly confident that Edwards-Helaire's workload makes him a solid RB2 play this week, but I know a lot of people are treating him as an elite RB1 already. I would temper those expectations just a bit and consider not using him in DFS contests.

The Other Chiefs Receivers

Sammy Watkins. Mecole Hardman. Demarcus Robinson. There's upside to all three guys, but the Patriots defense isn't terrible, and none of these guys have really established themselves as a consistently fantasy-relevant play. Watkins is the highest floor guy of these three. Hardman is the highest upside play. And Robinson is...ehh, maybe a value play in DFS.

Darrel Williams (RB, KC)

Not only is the matchup not great, but Wiliams had just four touches last week. I don't see the volume being here to make him a fantasy option in this game.

Potential Sleepers

Rex Burkhead (RB, NE)

Three touchdowns last week, and Sony Michel is out for this one. Burkhead's got a tough matchup and also has to deal with the Bill Belichick uncertainty -- meaning, hey, he's a Patriots running back so who knows what'll happen -- but volume puts him in play for deeper leagues.

Damiere Byrd (WR, NE)

Byrd played virtually all of the snaps last week and had three catches for 27 yards. He's been targeted 12 times in three games and while the numbers haven't materialized, Byrd is an intriguing sleeper play in DFS contests for this game, especially if you pay up in Showdown for the bigger Kansas City players and need someone to round out your lineup.

Ryan Izzo (TE, NE)

With Newton under center, I was avoiding all the tight ends, but Hoyer might bring back some vintage Patriots-type usage where he gets the tight end involved. Izzo is the guy on the field the most and while he isn't putting up any numbers this year, he's another low-cost option in DFS.

Damien Harris (RB, NE)

Just activated off the IR, Harris should see some of the early-down work usually reserved for Sony Michel. I think his value may end up being a little touchdown dependent, but if you need a last-second play at running back or want someone who won't be chalky in DFS like Burkhead might, Harris is intriguing.

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