RADIO
Welcome back PGA family and thanks for joining me here at RotoBaller! Michael Thompson emerged victorious at something of a lackluster 3M Open to log the second PGA Tour win of his career.
We knew going in that the relatively weak field in Minnesota could cause some volatility in DFS contests, but I don't know that anyone expected the total bloodbath that ensued for many DFS players. I advised through multiple outlets last week that I would personally be scaling back my investment for the 3M and I hope that you guys followed suit. The upcoming week provides its own set of challenges, as we head to Memphis for a limited (but elite) field, no-cut event in the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Let's dive in!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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WGC-FedEx St. Jude Overview
After a *ahem* less-than-stellar field at last week's 3M Open, we get the stars back for this week's WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (think the name is long enough?) in Memphis. This area and course have been longtime hosts of a PGA Tour event, but last year was the first time it was upgraded to the majestic WGC status...Honors and benefits, already at the age of nine.
The "Big Game Hunter" Brooks Koepka walked away with the win last year and he'll be back to defend against the likes of new world-number-one Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and a host of the PGA Tour's elite. This is a WGC event, which means a small field and no cut. From a DFS perspective, we want to try our best to avoid duplicate lineups (try leaving some salary on the table) and can feel free to get a little aggressive, as we're guaranteed four rounds from all players (barring a WD). One quick research note...when you are digging into course history this week, make sure that you find results from the FedEx St. Jude Classic prior to last year, as many things you'll find will actually be course history for the now-defunct WGC-Bridgeston, which this tournament replaced on the schedule.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: TPC Southwind
Par 70 - 7,237 Yards, Greens: Bermuda
Doglegs, bunkers, and water hazards...oh my! That's what awaits players at this former Memphis dairy farm. TPC Southwind winds through lakes, streams, and ponds with the danger of water always lurking...especially on the par-3 11th hole that is almost a 'baby brother' to the famous 17th island green at TPC Sawgrass. Many of Southwind's par-4's have dogleg tendencies, which forces the bombers to throttle down a bit, though we have seen long hitters like Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka play very well here. Precise ball striking will be key, as the water hazards and almost 100 bunkers in play demand accuracy. Southwind is a long-ish Par 70 and ranked as one of the tougher tracks on the PGA Tour last season.
Both these fairways and greens are tough to hit, so I will primarily be targeting ball strikers with sharp iron games. Since this is a WGC event with no cut, I'll be willing to sacrifice consistency a bit in order to target players that can rack up birdies. We have eight par-4s that are 450 yards or longer, so I'll lean towards guys that fair well on long par-4s
Recent Champions & Winning Scores
- 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)
- 2018: Dustin Johnson (-19) *Winners listed prior to 2019 won the FedEx St. Jude Classic on this course.
- 2017: Daniel Berger (-10)
- 2016: Daniel Berger (-13)
- 2015: Fabian Gomez (-13)
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The Horse
Daniel Berger
DraftKings: $9,600
FanDuel: $10,500
Notable Course History: Win ('16 & '17)
Nothing fancy here, as it's hard to write a course history article and not include Daniel Berger when he's playing at TPC Southwind. Berger has conquered the Memphis track twice in his career, winning back-to-back FedEx St. Jude Classic titles in 2016 & '17. Those victories came before this tournament became a WGC event, so the fields weren't anywhere near the caliber that we'll see this week, but Berger's track record on this layout can't be ignored.
In addition to his strong course history, Berger heads into this week with some scorching form. Outside of a missed cut at the Memorial in his first start after taking a multiple-week break, the FSU alum has been perhaps the most consistent player on the PGA Tour in 2020. The short week at Memorial was his first missed cut of the year and the first time he finished outside of the top-38 in 2020. Berger ran off an impressive five-tournament stretch where he recorded a win, three top-fives, and a top-10 before taking the time off in the leadup to Memorial.
He didn't play bad at Muirfield Village and has actually never succeeded on that layout, so I'm willing to chalk it up as a "knock the rust off" outing. He'll be much more comfortable at TPC Southwind and his standing of second in this elite field in SG: Total over his last 12 rounds indicate that his game has been firing in all facets. Berger also carries a juicy blend of being able to make birdies (second in field Birdies or Better Gained), while avoiding big numbers (eighth in Bogeys Avoided). His course history will garner lots of buzz, but his $9.6k DK price tag will be a turnoff for many, which might mean we can grab some leverage by rostering him in GPPs.
The Ponies
Justin Thomas
DraftKings: $10,700
FanDuel: $11,700
Notable Course History: T12 ('19)
Not a ton of course history for a lot of the "elite" players at the top this week, as many didn't tee it up in this tournament prior to it becoming a WGC event. That's the case with Justin Thomas, who logged a T12 in his lone trip to TPC Southwind last year.
Despite the lack of a track record on this layout, JT makes tons of sense as a spend-up option. Though he's prone to random, out-of-the-blue missed cuts (Travelers & Genesis come to mind this year), Thomas has demonstrated consistent excellence both before and after the COVID-19 layoff. His putter can run cold, but he's been tremendous in all facets as of late, and ranks third in this WGC field in SG: T2G over his last 12 rounds, while excelling at both making birdies (17th Birdies or Better Gained) and dodging blowups (sixth Bogeys Avoided).
In a no cut event such as this, we can let ourselves get aggressive and creative when constructing rosters. You can pair JT with another stud that you like up top this week with no fear of a missed cut from the bottom portion of your roster. He narrowly missed a win a couple of weeks ago at the Workday and it feels like Thomas has a "W" coming soon.
Brooks Koepka
DraftKings: $9,200
FanDuel: $10,700
Notable Course History: Win ('19), T2 ('16), T3 ('15)
Brooks is really more of a cool talking point this week, rather than a true recommendation. One thing to consider is that unlike most of the "elite" options in this week's field, Koepka actually regularly played this tournament before it was a WGC event, and recorded two top-three finishes on this layout prior to winning at TPC Southwind last year.
Outside of the nice course history, things are pretty cloudy when it comes to what to expect out of Brooks. He's looked out of sorts for basically the entire year if we're being honest, battling both a knee injury and a swing that is not the one we've seen win four major championships. He missed the cut last week at the 3M, but actually looked improved tee to green, gaining over three strokes OTT and 1.8 strokes on Approach, only to be betrayed by an ice-cold putter (-5.1 SG: Putting).
We know that Koepka can "flip the switch" better than any player in golf, and with the PGA Championship on the horizon next week, it is "go time"...and we have to feel like we'll see some positive signs from him this week in Memphis if he's going to be any sort of factor at TPC Harding Park 10 days from now. I've practically sworn off trying to get Brooks right in "regular" events - and maybe this is yet another situation where he mails it in - but this sets up as an interesting spot due to his comfort level on this layout and with the year's first major coming up next week.
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Billy Horschel
DraftKings: $8,500
FanDuel: $9,500
Notable Course History: T9 ('19), T4 ('17), T8 ('15)
Let me first state that Billy Horschel's DK price tag feels pretty gross in this elite field. That said, I'm intrigued by Billy Ho in this spot, as he brings an eye-catching blend of course history and trending form to the table this week.
The former Florida Gator has logged three top-10s on this TPC Southwind track since 2015 - including a T9 against a comparable WGC field last year. Horschel is undoubtedly streaky, but his numbers indicate that he might be entering into a hot stretch, as he's gained strokes T2G, OTT, on Approach, and Putting in each of his last two starts.
It's easy to think of Horschel as a mid-tier type of player, but we've seen him play extremely well in different stretches over his career and emerge victorious from elite fields such as this one. It's early in the week as I write this, but I suspect his DFS price will keep his ownership low, which makes him an intriguing option on a week where we are trying to differentiate our builds.
Ian Poulter
DraftKings: $7,400
FanDuel: $8,900
Notable Course History: T8 ('19), T31 ('17), T6 ('14)
The $7k price range on DK is a tough nut to crack this week, as we run into players with good form and little to no course history, or vice versa. Ian Poulter seems like a reasonable compromise, as he flashed a spot of form recently at the Workday and does have two top-10's on his TPC Southwind resume, including a T8 in last year's WGC format.
The Englishman never blows us away statistically, but he's a veteran that knows how to handle this sort of tough golf course and is well equipped to handle the lurking dangers on this layout due to his fairways-and-greens style of play.
There are certainly some flashier (and younger) names available in the $7k's, but the cagey Poulter has a knack for popping up with strong finishes on tough golf courses against elite fields. The Englishman has a top-five and two top-10s in four WGC starts since 2018, and may very well go overlooked by the masses this week.
Chez Reavie
DraftKings: $6,700
FanDuel: $8,200
Notable Course History: T27 ('19), T6 ('18), T4 ('17)
We'll close out this week's HFTC with my favorite sub-$7k play, Chez Reavie. Reavie can run hot and cold - especially with the putter - but he heads to Memphis and a Southwind track where he's historically performed very well, with his game trending in the right direction.
The veteran notched two nice outings at Muirfield Village, recording back-to-back top-25s in the Workday and Memorial, while gaining strokes in every major statistical category in both of those starts. Reavie has now gained strokes OTT and on Approach in three straight events, while ranking fifth in this elite field in Bogey Avoidance over his past 12 rounds...a stat of importance this week on a layout that annually sees more balls in the water than any other venue.
Reavie's struggles with the putter and uneven play often take him out of serious DFS consideration on normal weeks, but this no-cut event presents us with the perfect opportunity to fire him up. Even in this elite field, he offers top-10 upside on this golf course.
