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Antonio looks at MMA DFS stats and data from UFC 249, Fight Night 175 and 176 to identify trends and DraftKings DFS sleepers for your future DFS lineup picks.
While everything points to a slow crawl towards normalcy amid the current pandemic we're living through, the UFC broke the mold and became the first company to put on a bunch of shows during the past few days. The world of MMA welcomed the UFC back and indulged three events in the span of just seven days, which fans couldn't be more glad of finally watching again--no matter the fact that they all had to do so from home.
We had a full event to kick things off with UFC 249, which was later followed by UFC Fight Night 175 and UFC Fight Night 176, all of them from Saturday, May 9 to Saturday, May 16, and taking place at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL.
Now that the fights are over and we have the data from the fighters involved in them, it is time to look at the numbers and see what happened to try and highlight some of the feats accomplished in the bouts that brought some octagon-action back to us! In this article, I'll be using the DraftKings' scoring system when discussing fantasy points (DKFP). Don't stop checking our MMA Content here at RotoBaller, and give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana!
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UFC 249: Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje
In the three events covered in this column (UFC 249, UFC FN 175, and UFC FN 176) we got to watch 32 fights and 64 performers. In a bout that almost went the distance (stopped at 3:39 of the fifth round) and that was clearly the selling point of UFC's comeback to the TV grid, both Ferguson and Gaethje did enough to rack up fantasy points.
While Gaethje went away with the W and scored himself 111.5 DKFP, Ferguson (even losing the fight) was still able to score 68 fantasy points, good for 27th-best among all 64 fighters and ninth-best in the UFC 249 event.
Removing the Fight Conclusion (FC) bonus points from Gaethje's tally, Ferguson was only 3.5 points behind his opponent (68 to 71.5).
Both Gaethje and Ferguson got all of their fantasy points via Significant Strikes as they didn't log a single Advance, Reverse/Sweep, Takedown, or Knockdown.
UFC 249: Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Even with a truly devastating 20-second victory, Francis Ngannou's 103 DKFP ranked just sixth-highest in UFC 249 (main- and under-cards included). Other than the high FC bonus (90 DKFP), he only landed six Significant Strikes (46%) and a knockdown (the one that finished Rozenstruik).
Rozenstruik landed all five of his attempted significant strikes, but he could do nothing against Ngannou's power. This marked Rozenstruik's first loss in five fights after stopping every opponent he had faced in the UFC by KO prior to it.
UFC 249: Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz
Cejudo was able to defend his belt against Cruz in a dominant fashion. He finished Cruz via TKO 4:58 minutes into the second round and scored the third-most DKFP (111.5) on the night.
It's been three fights now that Cejudo has finished with a KO, and in all of them he landed at least 54% of his Significant Strikes attempted.
Cejudo might never fight again, but as always he showed an all-around prowess by getting fantasy points on all major categories (strikes, takedowns, and knockdowns). He often fills the stat sheet, so it wasn't a true surprise to watch him do it again.
Cruz came back after a long period out of the octagon and couldn't do anything to save his life. He had not landed fewer strikes (33) since his fight with Takeya Mizugaki back in 2014 (26).
While Cruz's first five fights of his career (all wins) saw him land at least 2 takedowns (topping at 10 against Demetrious Johnson in 2011), he has not taken his rivals down in any of the last two (both losses).
UFC FN 175: Glover Teixeira vs. Anthony Smith
40-year-old uber-veteran Glover Teixeira scored the most fantasy points among all 64 fighters to participate in the UFC comeback week with 139 DKFP. Even removing the FC bonus he would have still led the pack with 99, as he didn't finish Anthony Smith until more than one minute into the fifth and last round of their fight.
Teixeira did a little bit of everything, scoring fantasy points in all categories except Reversals/Sweeps. Teixeira was the only fighter in all of the event's fights to finish with a 50%-plus significant strike rate (68%) and also a 50%-plus takedown rate (1 of 2 attempts).
While Smith attempted the third-most significant strikes (210) he could only land 41% of them, the fourth-lowest rate among fighters to attempt at least 100 in UFC FC 175.
UFC FN 175: Ricky Simon vs. Ray Borg
Ricky Simon had one of the most complete performances of all fighters, getting 33.5 fantasy points on Significant Strikes, 15 on Advances, and 35 on Takedowns. No wonder he got the second-most DKFP on the slate.
Simon went for a takedown 11 times and was able to pull off seven of them for a rate of 64%. That was the highest rate of any fighter to attempt more than two takedowns on the night.
While the fight ended in Decision, there was a clear fantasy winner and that was Ricky Simon. He scored 113.5 DKFP while Borg finished with just 28.5 and was limited to just a few of significant strikes.
UFC FN 176: Alistair Overeem vs. Walt Harris
Overeem was close to end the night with a loss, but he recovered and ended winning his fight. Not only that, but he also led the slate with 128 DKFP after getting a KO three minutes into round two.
While the volume of Significant Strikes attempted by Overeem wasn't staggering (85) he was able to land 84% of them, the highest rate among all 62 fighters to attempt at least 10.
Since the UFC started in the '90s, Overeem became one of only four fighters to finish a fight with 85-plus SS-attempts, an 84%-plus SS-rate, and a 100% takedown rate (1 of 1 against Walt Harris). It also happened in 2019 (Billy Quarantillo), 2018 (Valentina Shevchenko), and 2008 (Dong Hyun Kim).
Harris' loss broke a two-fight streak in which he had beaten his opponents by KO in under 50 seconds both times.
UFC FN 176: Darren Elkins vs. Nate Landwehr
You might have missed this one, but Darren Elkins put on a show (or at least tried to) but ultimately end losing his fight. Elkins attempted the most takedowns (13) of all participants in UFC FN 176 but only got one successfully, and he also led all fighters of the event in Significant Strikes attempted (253) while landing 121 (51%) of them.
Only Niko Price (73.8 DKFP) racked up more points than Elkins (68.5) while losing his fight in UFC 249, but Elkins got the most points as a loser in UFC FN 176.
If you play fantasy football, you know volume is the most important thing. There have only been 15 fighters to attempt 250-plus SS and at least 10 takedowns and 10 of those 15 went on to get at least 65 DKFP.
Elkins' performance shouldn't have finished in a loss. Judging by the numbers, and among that group of 15 fighters, seven of them landed at least 39% of their SS, and Elkins was the only one to lose the fight.
Ultimately, though, Elkins could only complete 8% of his takedown attempts, and all but one of those 15 fighters to finish his fight with a takedown rate under 20% went on to lose the bout.
