We Must Overreact Immediately! Week 4 Outliers

Week 4 of the 2019 fantasy football season brought many surprises and unexpected sleepers and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes common overreactions to such performances in order to provide reasonable advice to fantasy owners.

Through the first four weeks of the NFL season, we are starting to get a better picture of the fantasy landscape as offensive roles continue to solidify. However, as we start to figure out who the go-to-guys are on each team, so are opposing defensive coordinators.

Because of this, from week to week, certain studs will be taken out of the game, which often leads to big days from their teammates. There were a few players, such as Mohamed Sanu, that had unexpected big games in Week 4, and some studs that came up extremely small.

Last week is now in the rearview mirror, and all we can do is evaluate how to move forward for Week 5.

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Marcus Mariota (QB, TEN)

Week 4 Stats: 18 of 27, 227 yards, 3 TD

Through the first three weeks of the season, the Atlanta defense had given up just 221 yards passing and 1.3 passing touchdowns a game. The Titans only put the ball in the air 29.75 times per game and after his three-touchdown performance in Week 4, Mariota now has seven touchdown passes on the season.

Bottom Line:

Mariota simply doesn't put the ball in the air enough to sustain consistent fantasy production. Although he can gain yardage with his legs, when he does run it, he usually gets hurt. In 12-team leagues, let somebody else chase Mariota's points, but if you're in a deeper league, he may be worth a speculative add with bye weeks looming.

Jordan Howard (RB, PHI)

Week 4 Stats: 15 carries, 87 yards, 2 TD, 3 catches, 28 yards, 1 TD

Through the first three weeks of the season, Jordan Howard touched the ball a total of 28 times, which averages out to less than 10 times per game, and gained 118 yards of total offense. In Week 4, the Eagles offensive line absolutely dominated the Packers defensive front and Howard touched the ball 18 times for 115 total yards and three touchdowns. On Howard's touchdown catch, the Packers had a breakdown in coverage and left him completely uncovered.

Bottom Line:

Jordan Howard has always been a good "yards after contact" runner, a throwback if you will, but he's not the dynamic type of running back that thrives in today's NFL. That being said, if the Eagles offensive line has a plus matchup against the opposing defensive front, it may be time to fire up Howard and get him in your lineup. Absent that, you cannot trust him on a week-to-week basis as anything but an RB3 in 12-team leagues.

Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)

Week 4 Stats: 6 targets, 2 catches, 6 yards

Kirk Cousins was under siege by the Bears Defense all day, getting sacked six times. As a result, Cousins wasn't looking downfield much, averaging just 6.5 yards-per-attempt, opting to dump the ball off to his running back on eight of his 36 throws. It also didn't help that Thielen was covered by Bears cornerback Kyle Fuller for much of the day.

Bottom Line:

Thielen scored in two of the Vikings four games and has exceeded 10 PPR-points in three of four games this season. The Vikings simply aren't throwing the ball a lot, so expectations need to be tempered, but Thielen will be the most consistent wide receiver on the Vikings roster.

Corey Davis (WR, TEN)

Week 4 Stats: 6 targets, 5 catches, 91 yards, 1 TD

The Falcons secondary had a tough time tackling the Titans wide receivers after the catch in Week 4 and Corey Davis reaped the benefits of that, breaking a tackle on a short catch and taking it 23 yards to the house.

Bottom Line:

Marcus Mariota, Corey Davis and A.J. Brown all came through for fantasy purposes in Week 4, but the Titans offense is still an extremely low volume passing offense. Corey Davis will always draw the opposition's top cornerback, but if the matchup isn't terrible, Davis has a chance to come through. If there is a suitor out there in your league that needs a wide receiver, sell Davis now.

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, CLE)

Week 4 Stats: 7 targets, 2 catches, 20 yards

Beckham was shut down by Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey in Week 4 and Baker Mayfield distributed the ball elsewhere. Moreover, the Ravens Defense had a bad day with defensive tackle Brandon Williams out of the lineup, and Nick Chubb ran wild because of it. Because Chubb was able to dominate, Mayfield didn't really need to force the issue to Beckham.

Bottom Line:

This was likely Beckham's worst game of the season, so if there's an owner in your league that's fed up with the embattled wide receiver, buy low.

Mohamed Sanu (WR, ATL)

Week 4 Stats: 12 targets, 9 catches, 91 yards

Mohamed Sanu was targeted 12 times in Week 4 against the Titans, but he was only targeted 19 times in the three previous games combined. The Titans made an effort to slow down Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, which opened the door for Sanu to have a solid day at the office.

Bottom Line:

Sanu will have big weeks from time to time but they will be few and far between and difficult to predict given the number of weapons in the Falcons offense. The Rutgers product is a WR4 in 12-team leagues and worth flex consideration.

Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, CLE)

Week 4 Stats: 3 targets, 3 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD

Even though David Njoku is out of the lineup due to injury (wrist), Seals-Jones still only played on 30.4% of the Browns offensive snaps in Week 4 against the Ravens. With weapons like Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and now Antonio Calloway returning from suspension, it's not likely Seals-Jones has a consistent role in the offense from week to week.

Bottom Line:

Seals-Jones was left uncovered on his 59-yard reception, and that won't happen every week. Seals-Jones is nothing more than a boom-or-bust streaming option in 12-team leagues and worth a speculative add in deeper leagues.

Austin Hooper (TE, ATL)

Week 4 Stats: 11 targets, 9 catches, 130 yards

Hooper has 10 or more PPR-points in three of four games this season and is No. 2 on the Falcons in targets (33) to Julio Jones (37). The Falcons tight end is also the No. 2 fantasy tight end so far this season with 70.70-PPR points, and has as many targets as Travis Kelce (33).

Bottom Line: 

If you haven't already realized it, Hooper is a legitimate TE1 this year, so start him with confidence.

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