RADIO
Measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data. Ben Rolfe takes a look at QB, RB, WR, and TE numbers through the first two weeks of the season and what that might mean for them going forward.
Assessing consistency after two weeks of the season is always tough but in a 16-game season we have already seen an eighth of it. Therefore, looking at how players have started the season is still useful. It may not be a predictor of long-term fantasy consistency but it does give us an impression of who is hot and who is not. It also gives an early chance to see a players potential floors and ceilings, which is always useful whenever it is presented.
The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.
A final note for this article is that although this article will be published following Thursday Night Football, the numbers from those games will not be included. I will also be unlikely to touch on those players unless they stand out as major players you should be targeting on the following weeks waiver wires. Therefore, do not be surprised to not see much mention of Cleveland Browns or New York Jets players below.
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Quarterbacks
The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through two games from largest to smallest. Jared Goff currently sits just behind Sam Darnold in the COR rankings but his 16.79 average is underwhelming. We might get a better idea of what Goff can offer us this week, when the Rams get tested for the first time. Joe Flacco and Philip Rivers are an interesting pair in the top five. Both have the potential to put up points this season with their offensive weapons, and could both end up top-10 come the end of the season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes are the early leaders among fantasy quarterbacks. Both are likely to have tough games down the road but for now both are a must-start this week. Kirk Cousins has the potential to have some very good weeks this year but what the Vikings ask him to do week-to-week may vary depending on how their defense handles their opponent. Therefore, he is likely to be an inconsistent starting QB option in 2018.
Near the bottom of the list we find Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger may be a regular at the bottom of this list if he cannot fix his home-road splits, and how he does this week in Tampa Bay is a big indicator. Ryan needs to be as efficient in the red zone as he was last week if he is to be a regular starter level player this year. If he cannot then he will also be a regular at the bottom of this list. Finally, we have Luck, who will hopefully grow into the season as we progress. However, with his offensive weapons he is always going to struggle for consistency.
Running Backs
James White appearing at the top of this list has been due to both the injury issues in the Patriots running back group and the fact they were largely chasing the game last week. How he features in games they are leading with all the backfield options healthy will be a big test of whether he can be a regular fantasy starter this year. Javorius Allen appearing third and Alex Collins 24th is a big concern for Collins owners who invested heavily in him. It will be interesting to see whether Collins can bounce back and provide anywhere near the value of his average draft position.
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman are likely to vulture from each other for the forseeable future and that could damage them both as regular fantasy options. We have a similar situation in San Francisco, although it feels as though Matt Breida may be about to make the starting job his. That leaves Alfred Morris as a likely touchdown dependent option in that offense.
Some surprising names that appear lower down on the list include Jordan Howard, Kenyan Drake, Dion Lewis, Derrick Henry and Kareem Hunt. Howard may struggle to be a regular contributor if the Bears find themselves chasing games this season and his output will likely depend on whether Mitch Trubisky can step it up in the rest of 2018. Drake has faced two pretty stiff run defenses this year, but he will face some of those the rest of the year and he needs to prove we can rely on him. Lewis and Henry's values will be hurt every time Marcus Mariota is out of the game. Hunt's issues are going to be that the passing game in Kansas City may over run everything. However, as the season progresses and teams adjust to Mahomes he should be able to provide more regular contributions to your fantasy teams.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams at the top of this list is an interesting name that will only remain there if he continues playing with Aaron Rodgers. Kenny Golladay is the name that stands out to me most in the top-10. He has looked a huge part of this Lions offense so far this year and I think that continues to happen as the year progresses. Whether that is bad news for Marvin Jones or Golden Tate is yet to be fully seen but my bet would be that Jones is the one who loses out.
Among the top-10 right now we also have Tyler Lockett and DeSean Jackson. Both of those options are likely to prove to be extremely touchdown dependent and now might be a sell-high time on them both, especially if they have another good week.
Some surprising names near the bottom of this list are Robert Woods, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones. Jones is going to have the odd dip this year in an offense with that many weapons, unfortunately you have to start him every week and just roll with it. Woods has a similar issue to Jones in terms of number of weapons. Had Woods caught a couple of deep bombs in Week 1 and he probably is not even in this discussion. Right now he is the example of what Jackson and Lockett could be without their touchdowns. Beckham is a whole different issue. Eli Manning and the Giants offense is a mess and that is going to hurt Beckham. Much like Jones for now you have to start him but this could be incredibly ugly.
Tight Ends
Tight end is such a messy position on a week-to-week basis. It is so tough to find guys who consistently put up solid fantasy production. Outside of the top couple of options you are mostly relying on touchdowns. So what do you do? Play the touchdown lottery or try and use a middling option who can at least give you some sort of consistent production?
Maxx Williams with two six-point outings is an example of that second choice. He is not flashy or particularly good, but if he can give you six-points a week to backup a good fantasy team then that is better than gambling and getting a one- or two-point week. At the bottom of this weeks list is Jimmy Graham, who is now in an offense that does not value the tight end and that is going to make each week a slog for his fantasy owners. The name on this list that I think will stand out come the end of the year is O.J. Howard. He is becoming more-and-more a part of that Buccaneers offense and he should continue to see a solid number of targets.
