Second Half Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates - Underperforming Hitters To Buy Low

July 16, 2026

Frank analyzes fantasy baseball breakout hitters, sleepers for the second half of 2026. These underperforming hitters are buy-low fantasy baseball trade targets.

Every MLB team has now played at least 90 games, meaning the season is nearly 60% complete. As with every season, there are underperforming hitters compared to where they were taken in drafts coming into the year. While it's always frustrating for a poor first half from one of your premium picks, that doesn't mean that they can't turn it around in the second half.

With that in mind, we're going to take a look at second-half breakout candidates who are worth buying low on as we try to capture lightning in a bottle on a strong performance after the All-Star break.

The average draft position (ADP) here is taken from NFBC preseason drafts. The “hitter rank” is based on FanGraphs’ Player Rater 5x5 roto settings for 12-team leagues.

Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, San Diego Padres

ADP: 13
Hitter Rank: 56

Fernando Tatis Jr. was a Round 1/2 turn pick coming into the 2026 MLB season. It's easy to understand why. He's a dynamic outfielder entering his age-27 season, coming off a 2025 campaign where he hit .268 with 25 home runs and 32 steals in 691 plate appearances.

We always think back to Tatis' epic 2021 season, where he hit 42 homers with 25 steals. That's always in the back of our minds when drafting Tatis, wondering whether he can ever rediscover that form.

But that couldn't be further from the truth so far this year. Tatis is slashing .277/.340/.374 with five homers and 23 steals in 416 plate appearances. The power outage is hard to understand, especially since he has a 10.7% barrel rate, which isn't much worse than last year (10.9%).

Tatis is still hitting the ball hard, as highlighted by an elite 52.6% hard-hit rate, which is even better than what he did last year. The problem has been that Tatis is hitting the ball on the ground too much, as his 51.4% ground-ball rate is by far the highest of his career.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a leadoff homer OUT OF THE BALLPARK 😤 pic.twitter.com/mEzl9CwE2P

— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2026

With that said, I know it's cliché, but baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. We have to trust in the track record here. Tatis is a perennial 25-25 threat with the ability to go 25-40.

While he probably won't get to 25 home runs this season, I can't rule out a power binge that gets him to 20. That would mean 15 homers for the rest of the year, which would be quite valuable to go along with his speed.

We saw some signs of life from Tatis back in June, when he put up a season-high .509 slugging percentage. It's only a matter of time before he gets going. Check in on your league mate to see if they're frustrated with the lack of power. Now is your time to pounce. Always trust in the track record.

Cal Raleigh, C, Seattle Mariners

ADP: 17
Hitter Rank: 197

Cal Raleigh had a historic season in 2025, when he slashed .247/.359/.589 with 60 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 705 plate appearances. This bumped up his ADP to the mid-second round in two-catcher formats. But it's been Ben Rice and Shea Langeliers who have been dominating the catcher position, while Raleigh has struggled mightily.

In fact, it's not a stretch to say that Raleigh is the biggest bust in fantasy baseball right now. The Mariners catcher is slashing .169/.271/.310 with nine home runs in 280 plate appearances. His strikeout rate has skyrocketed from 26.7% to 32.5%, while his barrel rate has plummeted from 19.5% to 11.0%. But we're sticking with the theme of trusting the track record here.

Cal Raleigh adds on with a 3-run homer!

The @Mariners have scored double digits 😳 pic.twitter.com/RWDp7cAZzB

— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2026

Remember, even before Raleigh's monster 2025 season, he was still a productive power hitter. This is a hitter who slugged 34 homers with a 118 wRC+ back in 2024. He came into this year with three consecutive 30+ homer seasons.

Now granted, it's clear that 2025 was a massive outlier. We can't expect him to get to a 50-homer pace again. But there's a good chance that he'll hit at a 35-homer pace for the rest of the year.

After missing a part of the first half, it's taken time for Raleigh to get it going, but I trust in the track record here. Sometimes in fantasy baseball, there aren't any tangible signs to indicate a looming breakout. The case is just; they've done it before on several occasions. That's what we're dealing with here. You're able to trade for Raleigh at a rock-bottom price, so why not take a shot?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 18
Hitter Rank: 98

Yet another hitter with a track record who has been incredibly disappointing. This time, it's Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I came into the season with high hopes for Vlad Jr., believing that he'd translate that amazing postseason power surge into a full year of high-end production.

But that hasn't been the case, as the Blue Jays first baseman is currently slashing .262/.346/.357 with six home runs in 387 plate appearances.

What's most notable, aside from the power outage, is that Vlad's barrel rate has absolutely plummeted from 12.2% to 6.9%. While maybe we've always overhyped his power potential, thinking he can get to 40 homers when 30 is a more realistic ceiling, what we've seen this year is a complete outlier. He's not a 15-homer type of bat. The power is going to come; we just need to be patient.

PLAKATA 💥

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ties the ballgame with a 3-run blast! pic.twitter.com/8ITafMJYgh

— MLB (@MLB) July 12, 2026

What gives me some hope is that the power outage hasn't come with an uptick in strikeout rate, as he still has a 12.9% K% on the season, which is better than last year's 13.8%.

The fact that he's still putting a ton of balls in play makes me optimistic for a strong second half. The good news is that, unlike Raleigh, Vlad has shown some signs. Right before the All-Star break, he homered twice in his last four games.

We can't rule out the Blue Jays going on a second-half surge, led by Vlad, just like he carried them throughout their magical postseason run last year. I'd try to buy low before that happens.

Manny Machado, 3B, San Diego Padres

ADP: 34
Hitter Rank: 124

Finishing off our buy-lows for the second half is yet another proven hitter who is having a poor season. We're concluding this column with Manny Machado, who is currently slashing .203/.290/.418 with 19 home runs in 390 plate appearances. His strikeout rate has increased from 19.3% to 22.3%, while his barrel rate has gone from 12.9% to 10.4%.

Manny Machado hits a solo home run to the opposite field to give the Padres a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the 2nd inning!

Dbacks @ Padres#MLB #ForTheFaithful pic.twitter.com/X4EmSgH8xW

— San Diego Strong (@PadresStrong) July 10, 2026

However, this is a hitter with 10 seasons with 27+ home runs. It's only a matter of time before he gets going. In fact, it's already started, as Machado is slashing .308/.413/.564 in July. When we're dealing with such a proven hitter, you can't lose hope, even if it looks as bad as it does with Machado, where he's flirting with the Mendoza Line.

Expect him to finish his year strong, with good production for the rest of the season. I'd try to flip an overachieving hot starter, like Luis Garcia Jr., to see if I can acquire Machado. Perhaps your league mate will buy into the idea that Garcia has taken his game to the next level.

Give me the hitter with the proven track record instead. Buy low on Machado.

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