Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Hitters Delivering Elite Results For Week 11

June 9, 2026

Kevin analyzes hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts surging for Week 11 of 2026. Are they true breakouts, or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.

We're in the thick of things both in the MLB world and the fantasy baseball world. Things continue to get clear with who's who every week but that won't stop me from bringing you another edition of Fantasy Baseball Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs. The next big thing could be sitting there on the waiver wire with tremendous recent stats, but you don't want to snag him if he's a fake out.

That's where we come in and help you with identifying who's a breakout that's going to help your roster win more this season. The advanced stats tell all and we'll use them to the best of our abilities.

With that said, let's dive into another group of hitters that are breaking out. This week, we'll evaluate a quartet of hitters - Colton Cowser, Bryce Eldridge, Sam Antonacci and Jared Young. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Monday, June 1st.

Colton Cowser, OF, Baltimore Orioles

2026 Stats: .734 OPS, 108 OPS+, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 20 R, 1 SB, 13% Rostered (Yahoo!)

It was an outrageously bad start to the season for Cowser that looked even worse than his sophomore slump in 2025. He was hitting for just a .489 OPS in March and April, well below what we've been used to out of the 26-year-old. But as of late he's starting to take a turn.

May saw him flip the switch, hitting for an .891 OPS with four homers. Over the last 14 days he's been one of Baltimore's best hitters, crushing for a 1.137 OPS in 41 PAs. He's looking the part of a breakout, but should we be worried this is a fake out? Let's dive in.

BACK-TO-BACK DAYS WITH A WALK-OFF BLAST FOR COLTON COWSER! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/cFq9t0S1CK

— MLB (@MLB) May 25, 2026

Starting with his plate approach we can see that he's tracking much closer to his 2024 season when he finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year race. His 28.8% strikeout rate is still very high but much improved from last year's 35.6% rate. The walk rate is also in the double-digits, coming in at 11.0% after 7.5% last season.

Over the last 30 days we've seen the strikeout rate drop to 23.8%. The walk rate is down too at 9.5%, but that's a number I'm more than willing to live with.

Moving on to the batted ball profile and it's fair to say that he is who he is. He's got a 38.4% fly-ball rate, 46.5% ground-ball rate and a 15.1% line drive rate. That is, for all intents and purposes, pretty much exactly who he's been over the past three seasons. The HR/FB rate of 18.2% is in line with his norms as well. So not many changes happening here.

As we move onto his BABIP we see it's coming in at a .309 clip. That's great to see that there aren't many indicators of either bad luck or good luck. It's fairly neutral. After last season's .262 rate he was due some positive regression. A lot of that's being realized now as his .361 BABIP over the last 30 days is certainly a bit high, but it was coming to him one way or another.

Heading over to his Baseball Savant page and we might start to see some worries here. His wOBA of .325 is decent but is paired with an xwOBA of .315 that ranks in the 42nd percentile. We don't like to see negative regression coming for anyone, but at least the drop appears to be minimal.

If we extract his xwOBA over his last 50 PAs we can at least see that he's getting better results over the last 25 PAs or so. That at least helps signify that maybe he's turning a corner.

Where I start to have some worries is the hard-hit rate. It's coming in at 30.7% which ranks in the 13th percentile. That's 16% below his rates from the past two seasons. With the batted ball profile being nearly identical to his past it seems that something could be off. Even over the last 30 days his hard-hit rate is at 23.8%. And while that OPS is over 1.000 in that span, it certainly spells out that there's a bit of luck happening in this breakout.

At the same time, the barrel rate is coming in at 12.5% which puts him in the 79th percentile. That's a touch below where he's been the past two seasons, but still is a solid number to be posting. He's at least doing what he normally does when he gets it in the air.

Special delivery! 🥛 pic.twitter.com/d0xzP7BOo1

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) June 7, 2026

Moving onto the pitch mix, the top two pitches he faces both have positive and negative regression. He sees four-seamers at a 24.2% clip and is hitting them for a .316 wOBA, paired with a .377 xwOBA. That xwOBA matches closer to the results he had against them last season (.375 wOBA) so I would expect his luck to turn on this pitch sooner rather than later.

The pitch he sees the second most is changeups, hitting them for a .275 wOBA that's paired with a .202 xwOBA. Neither of those numbers are anything I really want to have a part of and is a continuing trend of his struggles against changeups last season. The positive regression we'll see from four-seamers is likely getting wiped out by changeups.

The rest of his pitch mix generally has true results. He's strong against sliders and sinkers while he absolutely struggles against curves and split fingers. Since the percent of pitchers that throw split-fingers isn't all that high I'm not as worried about it, but if pitchers have a decent curve then they'll certainly lean on that more and more against Cowser.

Verdict: The recent streak that Cowser is on is looking like he's overachieving. Not that he didn't deserve it as he did have positive regression coming his way. But these kinds of results we've seen over the last 30 days aren't what we should expect from the 26-year-old going forward. He's likely to stay close to a league-average OPS+ going forward.

If he's able to start hitting the ball hard again then I'll have more faith that he's able to produce for more power more consistently. But as of now I think we're looking at someone that's not quite a fake out, but someone that's simply overachieving. At 13% rostered I don't have any issues with anyone riding out his hot streak if they're in need of outfield help, but I do think the hot streak comes to an end sooner rather than later.

Bryce Eldridge, 1B, San Francisco Giants

2026 Stats: .801 OPS, 131 OPS+, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 13 R, 0 SB, 18% Rostered (Yahoo!)

When the Giants called up their top prospect in early May they were looking to invigorate their lineup with youth and power. The struggling lineup needed it. And while it took Eldridge a bit to get going, he's finally in the swing of things.

A four-hit performance against the Rockies really showcased his potential. He's been lights out over the last 14 days, posting a 1.032 OPS. This sure looks like he's breaking out, but we've got to ask: Is he a breakout or a fake out? Let's dive in.

Bryce Eldridge SMOKED this ball 😤 pic.twitter.com/fbvwTP4TuZ

— SF Giants on NBCS (@NBCSGiants) May 31, 2026

Starting with the plate approach, Eldridge is clocking in with a 23.4% strikeout rate to go along with an 11.7% walk rate. That's a generally fantastic eye for the zone, something we saw a noticeable improvement on in Triple-A Sacramento this year.

The walk rate at Sacramento was up to 14.6% this year, but the strikeout rate was also up at 29.9%. Keeping his walk rate at 11.7%, while dropping the strikeout rate, is a solid start.

Looking at his batted ball profile we are seeing something very positive right out of the gates and that's a concerted effort to keep the ball off the ground. He's posting a 29.5% ground-ball rate, a 37.7% fly-ball rate and a 32.8% line drive rate. This profile is a very close representation for who he's been throughout the minor leagues.

His ability to keep this profile anywhere close to similar at the major league level is a good sign moving forward. The only area that's lacking is his HR/FB rate, which is currently at 8.7% when he's normally closer to a 20% rate. That should improve with time, but still is something to be noted for now.

With such a high line drive rate it's no surprise that his BABIP is a bit high. It's coming in at .356 for this season. We'll expect some regression, but he's traditionally been above .300 at every level. Throughout the minors last season he posted a .316 BABIP and in 2024 he had a .357 BABIP. I'd expect him to end closer to the .316 number when all is said and done.

But let's see what his Baseball Savant page has to say before assuming negative regression. Statcast views him pretty favorably as his .351 wOBA is paired with a .377 xwOBA. That xwOBA, if he was a qualified hitter, would be in the 89th percentile and put him in the company of Cody Bellinger, Jonathan Aranda, Dominic Canzone and Nathaniel Lowe.

Bryce Eldridge hits his first Major League home run! pic.twitter.com/xJ99jBqjmm

— MLB (@MLB) May 10, 2026

His hard-hit rate is certainly helping to keep that xwOBA as high as it is. That's clocking in at 52.5% which would put him in the 95th percentile, similar to Jordan Walker. The barrel rate is a bit more average, coming in at 9.8%. If he's able to get those hard hits and more solid launch angles then the long ball will become more prominent.

As we look at the pitch mix that pitchers attack him with, it's mostly true results besides one pitch. And the good news? It's got positive regression coming.

That'd be four-seamers. He's only hit them for a .217 wOBA, but that's paired with a .369 xwOBA. Small sample size is a factor here but that's a solid amount of positive regression for the pitch he sees the most.

And while small sample sizes are going to be a factor in most of these numbers here, we're at least seeing numbers close to each other. They're showing strengths of his against sinkers (.668 wOBA, .633 xwOBA) and changeups (.421 wOBA, .481 xwOBA) and a weakness against curves (.256 wOBA, .261 xwOBA) and cutters (.283 wOBA, .249 xwOBA).

The pitch mix is relatively clean for this small of a sample size and we can at least see his strengths are his strengths and his weaknesses are his weaknesses. There are much fewer questions here than there could be.

Verdict: There's a lot to love with Eldridge. While I am not sure I buy the positive regression that xwOBA is predicting, I'm also not sure we'll see as much negative regression as BABIP may be insinuating. His batted ball profile is so consistent to who he was in the minors and I think that's a great sign for continued success at the major league level.

He also should become a better hitter at home over time. His .604 OPS at Oracle Park should easily get better. Eldridge is a buy for me. There's no reason he should only be 18% rostered as there's plenty to love for the left-handed rookie going forward, especially if those hard hits start to lead to more barrels.

Sam Antonacci, OF, Chicago White Sox

2026 Stats: .765 OPS, 117 OPS+, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 29 R, 8 SB, 26% Rostered (Yahoo!)

I asked the question last week and I'll ask it again: How many productive young lefties do the White Sox have? It feels like an endless supply and Antonacci is another one that's been crushing it for Chicago.

The 23-year-old has been a solid fixture atop the White Sox lineup and just had a solid week, posting a .961 OPS as one of Chicago's most productive hitters. But as always, we need to ask if he's a breakout or a fake out. Let's find out.

Sam Antonacci's third hit of the day brings the @whitesox lead to 5⃣ pic.twitter.com/9manCdNUDF

— White Sox on CHSN (@CHSN_WhiteSox) June 3, 2026

Starting with the plate approach we can see that he's focused on balls in play this year. His 14.7% strikeout rate mirrors much of what he did in the minors while he's paired that with a 6.3% walk rate.

The walk rate is a bit concerning, but it may just be an adjustment to the majors. In the minors he was traditionally posting a double-digit rate with the lowest being a 12.9% walk rate at Double-A Birmingham. That could change with more time, but it definitely needs to be noted.

His batted ball profile certainly paints the picture of a contact hitter's profile. He's got a ground-ball rate of 49.3% and a fly-ball rate of 25.4%. We'd love to see fewer balls on the ground and more in the air, but it does mean he's pairing it all with a 25.4% line drive rate.

As was the case with Eldridge, this is generally who Antonacci has been throughout his time in the minors. We may not have much hope for more balls in the air at this point, so the line drive rate has to stay high.

With a high line drive rate it's no surprise to see him posting a .338 BABIP. That's also a number he's generally been close to throughout the minors. Two straight hitters with profiles this close to their minor league careers? That's just making things easy here and I'm not complaining.

As we move onto his Baseball Savant page we see a mix of red and blue. The good news is the red includes his xwOBA, which ranks in the 87th percentile. Even better news is it's at .375 and paired with his current .350 wOBA. That spells out some positive regression.

Sam Antonacci ties the game in the ninth with a triple! pic.twitter.com/o5aMKqena0

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 29, 2026

But the blue is also in two key areas we'd rather see red in. That's his hard-hit rate (36.0%) and his barrel rate (6.7%). Those rank in the 26th and 33rd percentiles respectively.

With his profile being closer to a contact hitter I'm not surprised to see the barrel rate being lower, but I'd love for the hard-hit rate to be higher. That would help me buy into the expected stats a bit more, but this part of the equation does give me a bit of pause.

As we look at the pitch mix we see four pitches that are worth diving further into. He's been at his best against four-seam fastballs, putting up a .474 wOBA that's paired with a .430 xwOBA. With a floor that high I'm not worried about the negative regression.

The pitch he sees second-most often is sinkers. This is where things may start to look a lot better. He's hit them for a respectable .332 wOBA, but it's paired with a .428 xwOBA. That is a lot of positive regression for a pitch he sees 18.6% of the time.

But we can't get too far ahead of ourselves. The next pitch is changeups, which he hits for a .332 wOBA that's paired with a .267 xwOBA. As soon as we got the chance to get excited about sinkers we get that hope taken right away from us.

The last pitch to consider is sliders, which he's hitting for just a .139 wOBA. It's paired with a .290 xwOBA. So we can expect positive regression, but the xwOBA number isn't exactly exciting.

Verdict: I think Antonacci is a very, very intriguing case. He's clearly excelling with contact and is finding holes. The advanced stats say that he's set for positive regression, but I'm still worried about the hard-hit rate and barrel rate stopping that from happening.

At the same time, even if he doesn't realize that positive regression I don't think he's going to fall off from where he's at thanks to a consistent batted ball profile and a high line drive rate. An improvement in walk rate would be great, but even if it doesn't happen he's still around a 120 OPS+ type of hitter.

Antonacci is a buy. At 26% rostered there's a solid chance he's on your waiver wire. The next couple weeks are rough on the White Sox schedule but you'll still have a very solid hitter after that.

Jared Young, 1B, New York Mets

2026 Stats: .884 OPS, 149 OPS+, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 8 R, 0 SB, 1% Rostered (Yahoo!)

It's hard to get excited about much in Queens right now but Young is working to show there might be some fun things happening. The 30-year-old had missed time from surgery to repair a torn meniscus, but since his return he's been cooking.

The former Doosan Bear (shoutout to the infamous KBO run of 2020, by the way) has made an immediate impact, crushing three homers in his last eight games. He's looking like a solid breakout, but we've still got to see if there's a chance he's a fake out.

Jared Young ties it with a 424-foot blast 🍎 pic.twitter.com/m5x2u6YREL

— MLB (@MLB) June 2, 2026

With his plate approach he's coming in with a 25.0% strikeout rate and a 10.9% walk rate. With so few PAs in his other three MLB seasons it may be better to compare to his KBO stats in which he posted a 20.7% strikeout rate and a 12.4% walk rate.

I love to see that his walk rate is staying high, at least for the moment. That helps to make the strikeout rate more palatable, even if it's not extravagantly bad. They're both close to his KBO numbers, so that's a solid sign to start.

As we look at the batted ball profile it looks a bit concerning. That's because he's coming in with a 56.4% ground-ball rate. It hasn't been that high since his 16 game stint with the Cubs in 2023.

That leaves his fly-ball rate at 28.2% and his line drive rate at 15.4%. There's very clearly room for improvement in his batted ball profile. In the KBO when he posted a 1.080 OPS he had a 30.0% ground-ball rate, 47.3% fly-ball rate and a 22.7% line drive rate.

Now obviously the majors aren't the same as the KBO, but this does show that he has the ability to get the ball in the air more. That's going to help ensure his production stays high.

His BABIP is also coming in high at .351 so far. That does seem a bit surprising given the high ground-ball rate, so maybe he's hitting the ball hard and benefitting from it. More on that later.

Let's head to Baseball Savant now and see what the advanced stats say. And so far they love him. He's posting a .385 wOBA that's paired with a .398 xwOBA. We shouldn't get carried away with that number yet given the small sample size, but it does put him in the 96th percentile.

Now for the hard-hit rate that we need to confirm. The good news is he's crushing the ball, posting a 52.5% hard-hit rate and a 17.5% barrel rate. Those numbers provide a lot more validity to his wOBA, xwOBA and BABIP.

Jared Young's first home run of the year! pic.twitter.com/VexkYji4GT

— SNY (@SNYtv) May 30, 2026

As for the pitch mix there's not a ton to pull from it quite yet. We see he's been really strong against four-seamers (.597 wOBA, .563 xwOBA), changeups (.414 wOBA, .616 xwOBA) and sinkers (.383 wOBA, .360 xwOBA).

Pitches he may struggle with soon are sliders (.300 wOBA, .292 xwOBA) and curves (.307 wOBA, .228 xwOBA). Pitchers that are dominant with breaking balls may only throw them exclusively to Young in the future.

Verdict: It's a bit hard not to get caught up in this hot start, especially because it's been such a welcome surprise to the struggling Mets. But I do think the expectations for the future need to be tempered. I absolutely love the hard-hit rate and the barrel rate he's posting, but I can't escape the ground-ball rate being that high.

Now while I'm skeptical that he'll continue to hit at a 149 OPS+ level, I do think there's enough here to keep him as a productive MLB hitter and a solid fantasy addition. At the very least, he's 1% owned so what do you have to lose? He's a must buy at that level. Get him while you can and let him bring the Mets back to prominence. Or at least a better chance in the wild card race, you never know.

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