RADIO
Austin gives you his top five fantasy football rookie avoids. First-year players to avoid in 2026 dynasty rookie drafts include Ty Simpson, Jonah Coleman, and more.
Anyone who has been playing dynasty fantasy football for a while knows that it's extremely easy to find busts in a given rookie draft.
Talent uncertainty, team fit, injuries, and more can derail these shiny prospects -- all picked by their respective NFL teams due to the best possible outcome -- from ever being weekly staples in your lineups. We all have our favorites, but this article is the hard one.
In an ambiguous draft beyond the first few selections, here are my five choices for the upcoming 2026 drafts. These won't be overly surprising if you caught my top-50 rankings of this year's prospects.
Editor's Note: The FFPC Baby Gorilla Tournament is now open, featuring a $100,000 grand prize and a $675,450 total prize pool! This 12-team, Tight End Premium contest uses a 20-round draft format, with the overall winners determined by total points scored during Weeks 15–17. Get $25 to use toward your first entry by signing up through our link. Grab your team now! Sign Up Now!
Ty Simpson - QB, Los Angeles Rams
I didn't ever think I'd ever mirror my feelings about Daniel Jones with another first-round quarterback selection ever again. Fans laughed at the Giants, and I was sort of in line with the masses. An argument for Jones at No. 6 overall made very little sense.
At No. 13 overall, Ty Simpson makes absolutely no sense. The only reason he's currently going as a top-20 selection in rookie drafts is an unwavering faith in the combination of Les Snead and Sean McVay. Everything else about Simpson will require him to be a historical outlier.
Pre-snap process and accuracy are both relative strengths in Simpson's profile, but everything else is pretty nightmarish. He's got suboptimal arm strength and size at 6'1." He only made 15 starts in college at Alabama, failing to beat out Jalen Milroe when Kalen DeBoer had the choice.
QBs with 15 or fewer college starts who went 1st round over the last decade. It's not a disqualifier, but still tough.
Anthony Richardson
Mitchell Trubisky
Dwayne Haskins https://t.co/Qb8ZYvkSbT— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) January 7, 2026
There wasn't even a Cinderella playoff run, as Simpson, due to college ailments, petered out, posting under 275 passing yards in seven of his last nine games as the competition stiffened.
Oh, yes. He's also going to be basically unusable for half of his rookie contract behind Matthew Stafford as a dynasty pick, too.
The 2027 NFL Draft is potentially loaded with Arch Manning, Dante Moore, and other eligible quarterbacks who might rival 2024's class in terms of star power and talent. Taking Simpson now just to wait longer than investing next spring seems like a gross misappropriation of resources.
Jonah Coleman - RB, Denver Broncos
For the record, my ranking of Jonah Coleman (17th) isn't that of a true bust. I'd be happy to get him in the early third, but he won't last that long.
I'm old enough to remember when a Sean Payton backfield, headed by Mark Ingram II and Alvin Kamara, was a fantasy goldmine, but those days are long gone. The best PPR positional finish for a running back in Payton's tenure with the Broncos was RJ Harvey -- Coleman's top competition for touches -- in 2025.
The best Denver Broncos RB positional finish in PPR by year in the Sean Payton era:
2023: RB33 (Javonte Williams)
2024: RB30 (Javonte Williams)
2025: RB24 (RJ Harvey)I'd rather trade my second-rounder than use it on Jonah Coleman, TBH. #DynastyFF
— Austin Swaim (@ASwaim3) June 4, 2026
Payton seems to have turned a new leaf and is married to an ugly committee of responsibilities. In games where J.K. Dobbins was active in 2025, Dobbins and Harvey combined to post just one total game with a greater than 65% snap share.
Even after Dobbins' injury, Harvey topped 65% of the snaps twice, ceding work to Tyler Badie and Jaleel McLaughlin. Dobbins and Harvey remain on the roster, and the team is adding a fourth-round rookie.
All of this comes before touching on the talent concerns. At 5'8" and 220 pounds, Coleman is a short-yardage thumper, but that slow-footed approach on tape also came with not running at the combine. He caught 31 passes and showed plus pass-blocking skills for the position.
Coleman will be on the field and likely will score a handful of touchdowns in his rookie campaign. Developing into anything more than a dart throw in daily fantasy will likely depend on Payton significantly changing the way he has used running backs with the Broncos so far.
Chris Brazzell II - WR, Carolina Panthers
There's a simple "bust" case for Chris Brazzell II, and there's a more complicated one. Both can't be denied as viable arguments.
It's not wise to blindly scout helmets, but there's a pretty rocky history of top-125 picks at wide receiver from Josh Heupel's unique Tennessee offensive scheme -- especially tall perimeter specialists. Think of Cedric Tillman, Dont'e Thornton Jr., and Jalin Hyatt.
Brazzell's tape isn't really dissimilar. There's an argument that the 6'4", 198-pound wideout is the best route runner of the five, but for what you get in terms of speed (4.37-second 40), you see struggles with contested catches and securing at the catch point.
Versatility against certain coverages will be an argument for CB2. He posted 3.10 yards per route run (YPRR) against zone and 2.05 YPRR against man, per Pro Football Focus.
The problem? That's actually less productive than the list he's trying to avoid. Compare him to the other top Vols receivers in their final season at Tennessee.
| YPRR of Tennessee WRs vs. Man and Zone Coverage | |||
| Leading WR in YPRR | College Year | Man YPRR | Zone YPRR |
| Jalin Hyatt | 2022 | 3.80 | 3.55 |
| Squirrel White | 2023 | 2.18 | 2.36 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | 2024 | 3.47 | 3.22 |
| Chris Brazzell II | 2025 | 2.05 | 3.10 |
This is just a system that prints stats that, in other contexts, are valuable for forecasting productive NFL prospects. Even beyond those concerns, this is also a sneaky deep wide receiver room to earn targets in with Tetairoa McMillan, Jalen Coker, and Xavier Legette all still in the mix.
Carson Beck - QB, Arizona Cardinals
Probability is an important concept in fantasy football, right? What are the chances that Carson Beck plays the Arizona Cardinals into drafting his replacement compared to those that he becomes their franchise quarterback?
As an experienced starter at both Georgia and Miami, it wasn't surprising to see Beck rise in a weak quarterback class as his arm strength returned from a 2024 elbow injury each progressive month. His decision-making and maturity blossomed in his final year with the Hurricanes.
He just clearly profiles as a backup in terms of athleticism and arm talent at the next level. Even at the collegiate ranks, Beck was managing the game.
In eight games against teams ranked when Miami (FL) played them in 2025, Beck averaged just 224.3 yards per game with 19 touchdowns compared to seven interceptions. Even that is sort of hollow when South Florida counts in that group, and that (340 yards) was clearly his best effort.
It felt like any time the training wheels needed to come off, calamity ensued:
HOOSIERS ARE KINGS OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL!!! 🏆 🤯 🔥
A final-minute interception of Carson Beck seals a first-ever National Championship for the University of Indiana!!#CFBNationalChampionship pic.twitter.com/Y0dglUyCJU
— ESPN Australia & NZ (@ESPNAusNZ) January 20, 2026
Arizona's win total hovers at most sportsbooks around 4.5, and if Beck isn't maximizing this team's elite skill talent in a losing season, it'll probably be in a position to replace him with Moore, Manning, or someone else.
Oscar Delp - TE, New Orleans Saints
In March, it was whispered that Oscar Delp might end up a Day 2 draft pick. That came to fruition amid a stunning run of unproductive college tight ends selected, setting an NFL Draft record (21). I still don't get it.
Delp might offer "13 personnel" versatility for the Saints, but we saw even with the Rams' success under McVay that it doesn't make a player fantasy-relevant. Plus, there's a clear projection in this case when he caught 41 total passes during his last two seasons in Athens.
Some might like the long strider, but I see average athleticism in one of the deepest tight end rooms in the NFL. Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau, and Noah Fant have all had their Sundays, and none have even turned 30.
It's easy to deeply consider Delp, Eli Raridon, Marlin Klein, Nate Boerkircher, and others who represent this wave of "draft capital" tight ends. Keep the bigger picture in mind, though.
Brenton Strange and Theo Johnson were significantly more athletic prospects with 30-plus catches, 325-plus yards, and five-plus touchdowns in their final college season. Neither has posted a top-15 positional finish in PPR.
Don't waste your late picks when guys like Puka Nacua, Chase Brown, Kyren Williams, Sean Tucker, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have come from the end of the draft in just the last half-decade.
More Dynasty Fantasy Football Analysis
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
