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Get today's top DraftKings daily fantasy hockey lineup picks for December 16, 2025. Doug's expert NHL DFS goalies picks, value plays, stacks, and power play picks.
Happy Tuesday, RotoBallers. We have been waiting for this slate on our Discord for a few weeks now for the $5-entry Barn Bash tournament on DraftKings, with a $10,000 top prize, and our goal is to get as many of us in the money as we can. The scheduling Gods have helped us out with a plethora of good spots to target on tonight’s 10-game slate.
The night starts with heavy-hitters like Toronto, Detroit, and Montreal all in good spots for big nights. The Oilers head to Pittsburgh in the second hour of the night, just a few days after swapping goalies. The night ends with a pair of games on the West Coast that look to be defense-heavy, but there are a couple of sneaky spots that the Heat Map thinks could be worth a look.
I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. NHL Premium members can find members of the RotoBaller NHL family on Discord, where our chat is always active. I'll bring my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Tuesday, December 16, 2025, at 7:00 p.m. ET. Be sure also to check out RotoBaller's awesome NHL tools, including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, and Heat Map.
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NHL DFS Analysis And Picks For 12/16/25
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR1 - William Nylander, Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews; $22,100 DK)
Defensive Addition: Morgan Rielly ($4,800 DK)
The biggest question I’ll be asking myself tonight is if Toronto’s matchup is good enough to invest over $22,000 on the trio of William Nylander, Matthew Knies, and Auston Matthews when many lines with strong matchups are significantly less expensive. This is the first time these guys are back on the same line in a while, and when they are clicking, they are one of the top five lines in hockey.
Case in point, when they have been on the ice together over their past 10 games, they are averaging 3.17 even-strength goals and 12.7 high-danger chances per 60 minutes at home. Add in defender Morgan Rielly, and those numbers go up to 4.21 goals and 25.26 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, and you do want to add in Rielly as the Blackhawks are the most generous team to opposing defenders this season.
Chicago has one of the best goalies in the league in Spencer Knight, but he’s been prone to bad games lately, allowing three or more goals in five of his past seven starts. A lot of this has to do with the atrocious defense in front of him.
Multiple line pairings have played poorly on the road this year, but we are going to target Matt Grzelcyk and Artyom Levshunov. They have allowed 3.27 expected goals, 35.82 scoring chances, and 19.29 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, putting Knight under significant pressure early and often against this high-powered offense in Toronto.
Montreal Canadiens (MTL1 - Cole Caufield, Zack Bolduc, Nick Suzuki; $16,300 DK)
Defensive Addition: Lane Hutson ($5,100 DK)
I expect tonight’s game between Montreal and Philadelphia to produce fireworks. Both defenses have been terrible over their past 10 games, and I want to take shots all over the ice against them. The line I want to focus on most is Montreal’s top line of Cole Caufield, Zack Bolduc, and Nick Suzuki. They are a fast-paced line that will get up and down the ice and put both teams in position to put the puck on the net.
When this line is skating at even-strength at home, they and their opponents combine for over 71 shots on goal and more than 75 scoring chances per 60 minutes. This has resulted in this line averaging 4.72 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their past 10 home games; one of the more impressive numbers on the slate.
Philly’s defensive pairing of Jamie Drysdale and Emil Andrae has been as bad as Montreal’s offense has been good. They have allowed 3.45 expected goals, 17.54 high-danger chances, and 34.25 scoring chances per 60 minutes over their past 10 road games. Goalie Dan Vladar started the season strongly, but has leveled off recently, allowing three or more goals in five of his past nine games.
Advanced data suggests that things could get worse, as he’s surrendered 0.64 fewer goals than expected over the team’s past 10 road games, and given how good the Montreal offense can be, tonight could be the time it all comes crashing down. Montreal is significantly cheaper than Toronto, and that will allow you to build a more well-rounded lineup if you choose them as the line to build around.
Le capitaine met la table dans la Grosse Pomme
A Big Apple in the Big Apple#GoHabsGo pic.twitter.com/mpE9HeVo3H
— Canadiens Montréal (@CanadiensMTL) December 14, 2025
Pittsburgh Penguins (PIT1 - Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell; $19,000 DK)
Defensive Addition: Erik Karlsson ($5,600)
In a game of old faces in new places, the Oilers and former Pens goalie Tristan Jarry head to Pittsburgh to face former Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner. That data prefers the home team in this game, and it does by a pretty wide margin. The Oilers have been one of the worst defensive teams in hockey when they are on the road, and it wasn’t all Skinner’s fault.
A lot of their struggles stem from their defensive pairings, and tonight we are going to focus on Ty Emberson and Spencer Stastney. They have allowed 3.32 expected goals and 15.93 high-danger chances per 60 minutes over their past 10 road games.
They’ll try to stop Pittsburgh’s top line of Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, and Rickard Rakell, playing together for just the third time in the team’s past 10 home games. In fact, this trio, who have been so productive in the past, haven’t played much together this year due to injuries sustained by Rust and Rakell. When they have been on the ice as a trio, they haven’t been overly productive this year, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
When Crosby has skated with either Rust or Rakell, they are averaging over 17 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. When Rust and Rakell skate without Crosby, they have averaged over 20 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. What that tells me is that they just haven’t had enough data points for the data to shake out, and that they are due to explode.
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— 🇺🇦Shockmain (@Shockmain) January 6, 2023
NHL DFS Value Stack of the Night
Philadelphia Flyers (PHI2 - Sean Couturier, Owen Tippett, Matvei Mitchkov; $13,400 DK)
We already saw how much I like the Montreal side of this game, but don’t sleep on Philly in this one. Both teams popped in the Heat Map because of how poorly the defenses and goalies have played over their past 10 games.
Montreal’s defensive duo of Lane Hutson and Alexandre Carrier may be playing worse than anyone on tonight’s slate. Over their past 10 home games, they have surrendered 36.09 scoring chances, and slate-highs of 24.06 high-danger chances and 4.93 expected goals per 60 minutes.
No pairing on the slate is within one expected goal of Hutson and Carrier; truly one of the most generous pairings I’ve seen all year. Goalie Jakub Dobes has been hit or miss, but overall, he’s allowing over three goals per game at home this year in eight starts. He’s allowed three or more goals in 10 of his past 13 starts, and that makes sense given how poorly his defense has played in front of him.
NHL DFS Goalie to Target
Jesper Wallstedt (MIN - $7500 DK)
Minnesota goalie Jesper Wallstedt has been ridiculously good this year. He’s scored 22.8 or more DraftKings points in seven of his past eight starts. Four of those starts were shutouts, and he’s recorded 30 or more saves in six of those games. How is he $900 cheaper than the most expensive goalie on tonight’s slate? How are there 12 goalies who cost more than him?
I get that he’s facing a solid Washington offense, and I get that this success isn’t sustainable long-term, but I’m going to take advantage of the price and play a lot of Wallstedt in tournaments tonight. The Capitals are a high-volume offense, taking over 29 shots on goal per game, so even if they net a few, they should still put up enough shots for Wallstedt to have a solid game.
The Caps are also inefficient on the power-play, ranking 26th in the league, while the Wild allows the fewest penalties in the league. That means that Wallstedt shouldn’t find himself in disadvantageous positions, setting him up for another night of success. I’d rather be a day late on Wallstedt than a day early, and I refuse to miss out on a massive score because I’m afraid of regression.
Highest save percentage by a rookie goalie 23 or younger through their first 12 games of a season:
.941- Jim Carey (1994-95)
.938- Marc Denis (1999-00)
.936- @mnwild Jesper Wallstedt (2025-26)
.936- Robin Lehner (2012-13)
.936- Calvin Pickard (2014-15)
.933- Juuse Saros (2016-17) pic.twitter.com/xKNPtx5RV3— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) December 13, 2025
Others in consideration: Jet Greaves (CBJ), Jonathan Quick (NYR), Mackenzie Blackwood (COL)
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