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Get today's top DraftKings daily fantasy hockey lineup picks for December 4, 2025. Doug's expert NHL DFS goalies picks, value plays, stacks, and power play picks.
10 NHL games await us tonight, with the early window highlighted by the Toronto Maple Leafs heading to Carolina to take on a potent Hurricanes offense. Other premium teams in the early window include Colorado facing the Islanders in New York and Tampa Bay hosting Sidney Crosby and the Penguins.
The late window of games had only three matchups, but when one of the teams is Edmonton, you have to pay attention. The big question tonight is whether the Oilers will be the ones we want to rely on for a late-game hammer, or if a surprise team will jump up and take that spot. Read on to find out!
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NHL DFS Analysis And Picks For 12/4/25
Colorado Avalanche (COL1 - Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas; $23500 DK)
Defensive Addition: Cale Makar ($8300 DK)
We tried this on Tuesday and are going back to it again tonight. The Colorado Avalanche will cost you $31800 to stack fully, but they are in an incredible matchup and are one of the few NHL teams that could justify that price point.
The quartet of Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, and Cale Makar has combined for 5.98 even-strength goals per 60 minutes on the road over their past 10 games, producing 44.11 scoring chances and 15.7 high-danger chances. There’s just nothing at all like them in the league, and they can break a slate any night of the week.
While you may think that it’s acceptable to roll with a three-man stack and fade Makar, remember that the line’s production slips 2.5 goals and nearly 10 scoring chances per 60 minutes without Makar on the ice. He’s essential to your Avalanche stack if you want full value. Unlike on Tuesday, we actually have a whole stack we can comfortably use with Colorado (more on that in the value section below), making these guys far more palatable to roster in tournaments.
NHL Awards Watch 🏆
It's early, but Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Matthew Schaefer have already built some very strong cases for the Hart, Norris and Calder.https://t.co/CbcG5jBKwI pic.twitter.com/4iyUCZb7D0
— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) December 1, 2025
Tampa Bay Lightning (TB1 - Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel; $20100 DK)
Defensive Addition: Darren Raddysh ($5000 DK)
Pittsburgh goalie Tristan Jarry is playing at an unsustainably high level, allowing 0.87 fewer goals than expected on the road. He’s saving a ridiculous 90% of the high-danger shots he faces, another number that’s nearly impossible to maintain. It’s particularly tough when he has a defense in front of him that’s allowing over 11.5 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, and facing an offense that produces 12.55 high-danger chances.
What’s crazy about the Lightning is that their top line hasn’t even hit its stride yet this year, scoring two goals fewer per 60 minutes than expected over their past 10 home games. The top line, including defender Darren Raddysh, has produced 19.04 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, yet is scoring only 2.12 even-strength goals per 60 minutes.
While adding Raddysh to a stack of Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov, and Brandon Hagel (three or more shots on goal in six games in a row and eight of 10) will give you power-play correlation, the numbers suggest he may not be someone you want in your stack. If you take Raddysh out of the equation, the team has actually produced better at even-strength. Hence, at $5000, he is far from a necessary addition to your team or for differentiation purposes.
Those numbers don’t correlate at all, meaning Tampa could be ready for an explosion. The key to this game is Jarry; if he continues playing over his head, then the Lightning are in trouble, but if he comes back to Earth and plays like he’s expected, then they are going to be one of the highest scoring teams on the evening.
Calgary Flames (CGY2 - Joel Farabee, Nazem Kadri, Yegor Sharangovich; $12700 DK)
Defensive Addition: Rasmus Andersson ($5300)
The Calgary Flames are a weird team. They don’t score a ton of goals, but they produce a lot of high-danger chances. Over their past six home games, the top line of Joel Farabee, Nazem Kadri, Yegor Sharangovich, and defender Rasmus Andersson has scored zero goals, yet they’ve had 20.63 high-danger chances per 60 minutes.
They were expected to score just 1.62 goals per 60 minutes over this stretch, meaning that they’re not due for a ton of regression. On the other hand, if you take Andersson off the ice, they’ve been expected to score 3.07 goals per 60 minutes with 15.98 high-danger chances and 31.95 scoring chances per 60 minutes.
What does this all mean? It means that the team is being slightly less aggressive without Andersson, but giving themselves more chances to score when he’s off the ice. If I’m stacking Calgary tonight, it’s going to be without Andersson, and I do want to stack Calgary tonight.
Their positive regression is one thing, but they also have an incredible defensive matchup against Minnesota’s defensive pairing of Zeev Buium and Zach Bogosian. That duo has allowed 3.81 expected goals and 14.64 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on the road over their past 10 games. Goalie Filip Gustavsson has played out of his mind, allowing just 1.99 goals per game on the road over the team’s past 15 games.
Like with Jarry, advanced data suggest he’s playing well above his pay grade, as he was expected to allow 3.15 goals in those games. That tells me that unless Gustavsson continues to stand on his head, he should be in for a long night against a Calgary offense ready to pop.
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— 🇺🇦Shockmain (@Shockmain) January 6, 2023
NHL DFS Value Stack of the Night
Boston Bruins (BOS3 - Tanner Jeannot, Fraser Minten, Mark Kastelic; $7900 DK)
It sounds wild, but the third line for the Bruins has the best matchup of anyone on tonight’s slate. They’ll be on the ice primarily with the defensive pairing of Cam Fowler and Logan Mailloux. Over the past 10 games, that duo has allowed a slate-high 4.63 expected goals, 33.64 scoring chances, and 14.42 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. Goalie Jordan Binnington has allowed 16 goals over his previous five road games, with only one game of fewer than three goals allowed.
The trio of Fraser Minten, Mark Kastelic, and Tanner Jeannot is averaging 10.45 high-danger chances, 27.16 scoring chances, and 2.99 expected goals per 60 minutes over their past ten home games. That would make them appear to be a productive line, yet they’ve scored exactly zero goals in that time period.
Ignore the past 10 games and instead focus on the matchup and advanced data because this is a line that’s ready to bust out. More importantly, this is one of the few lines that you can stack with a four-man Colorado Avalanche stack.
NHL DFS Goalie to Target
Jeremy Swayman (BOS - $7500 DK)
I am not letting Tuesday’s five-goal abomination deter me. Jeremy Swayman was far too hot before that game to think that he’s suddenly lost the ability to tend goal. Swayman had gone 10 straight games without allowing more than three goals, saving at least 90% of the shots he faced in each. He scored 12.5 or more DraftKings points in nine of those ten games. The man is on fire, and one bad game isn’t changing that.
Tuesday’s game was on the road in Detroit, and now the Bruins are back home, where Swayman is nearly a whole goal better, allowing just 2.27 per game. St. Louis comes to Boston for this game, and they’re not nearly as threatening an offense as Detroit, averaging just 1.67 even-strength goals per 60 minutes on the road over their prior 10 games. Swayman should bounce back in this one, and I view him as a safe play in both cash and tournament lineups.
Others in consideration: Jet Greaves (CBJ), Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB), Spencer Knight (CHI)
NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
