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Dave Ventresca's fantasy football outlooks and draft advice for Saquon Barkley, Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson. Who is the No. 1 pick in 2025 fantasy football drafts?
NFL rookie minicamps have begun. That means the 2025 NFL season is not far away. It also means it’s time to start preparing for your league’s annual fantasy football draft.
One of the starting points to any potential championship fantasy football season starts with nailing your Round 1 pick. Selecting the wrong player in Round 1 puts you behind the eight ball right out of the gate. Therefore, you must get this pick right. Three players sure to come off draft boards early this year are Saquon Barkley, Ja'Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson. If you’re lucky enough to own the first pick in your draft, odds are good you’ll be taking one of these players. But which one should you choose?
All three players are talented enough to finish as the top player in fantasy football. Let’s have a quick dialogue on Barkley, Chase, and Jefferson and discuss which one you should select in your 2025 fantasy football draft.
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Saquon Barkley 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Barkley is coming off an all-world 2024 season. He ran for a career-high 2,005 rushing yards and became the ninth player in NFL history to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark.
SAQUON BARKLEY IS GONE. 68-YARD TD.
📺: #PHIvsWAS on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/lhBWLZclYZ— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
Philadelphia’s RB1 also posted career highs in rushing touchdowns (13) and yards per carry (5.8). Barkley’s advanced metrics were also off the charts. Among 46 running backs with 100+ carries, Barkley finished:
Second in rush yards over expected (RYOE), per Next Gen Stats
Second in rush yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/ATT)
11th in PFF rushing grade
21st in PFF elusive rating
Seventh in missed tackles forced (MTF), per PFF
First in explosive rushing yards, per Fantasy Points Data Suite
Barkley crushed it just about everywhere you look. He finished 2024 as the PPR RB2. It was truly an incredible year capped off by a Super Bowl LIX victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Fun to recap Barkley’s 2024, but we must turn the page to 2025. Barkley has been one of the first players picked in early NFFC (National Fantasy Football Championship) drafts. His current NFFC ADP is 3.04 overall. That price is certainly understandable given his 2024 season. However, it’s worth pointing out that even with Barkley’s incredible 2024, he still didn’t finish as the top back in full-PPR leagues.
Barkley also touched the football 482 times last year (including playoffs). That is an absurd amount of touches for any running back to handle. There’s a long history of running back production declining following a season with this kind of usage. Barkley has also had his fair share of injury issues throughout his career. It's fair to wonder if all that work will catch up to him in 2025.
Even if he remains healthy, it will be incredibly difficult for Barkley to repeat his 2024 production. He is more likely to regress to his career means than put up another 2,000-yard effort.
So, while it’s understandable that gamers are excited to select him after what we saw last year, he may not be as safe a selection as early drafters think. However, he remains in one of the best ecosystems for running backs in the league and is still capable of producing a quality running back season.
Ja’Marr Chase 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
Chase is also coming off a career year in 2024. He posted a 127-1,708-17 line and won the wide receiver triple crown by leading the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.
It should be no surprise that he finished 2024 as the overall WR1.
Ja'Marr Chase 40-YARD TD! 🔥
Incredible! #CINvsDAL | ABC, ESPN pic.twitter.com/tX8GXYA0Oq
— ESPN (@espn) December 10, 2024
Chase has been the near-unanimous first overall pick in early NFFC drafts. He has an average ADP of 1.33 overall. Again, this is understandable given the season Chase had in 2024. His situation remains fantastic as well.
Joe Burrow will still be throwing him passes, and Cincinnati signed fellow wideout Tee Higgins to a four-year, $115 million contract this offseason. His presence will continue to help Chase as it will not allow defenses to gang up on the Bengals’ WR1.
While the team took steps to try and fix a defense that plagued it during the 2024 season, it’s uncertain if the additions Cincinnati made will improve that side of the ball. The Bengals also made the highly questionable decision to fire well-respected defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. This all means that Cincinnati's defense could remain an issue, and it may have to rely on the offense yet again.
That would be great news for Chase as he could be playing in many neutral or pass-happy situations again in 2025. So, while we should not expect a repeat of his 2024 numbers, Chase feels like a relatively safe pick at the top of draft boards this year.
Justin Jefferson 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook
There were more questions than ever surrounding Jefferson in 2024. His longtime starting quarterback, Kirk Cousins, was gone, and Sam Darnold stood as Minnesota’s new QB1. As a result, fantasy gamers were a bit more cautious about investing in Jefferson. As things turned out, they shouldn’t have been.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON 97 YARD TUDDY!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/0PJs9mheCK
— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
Darnold had a career year, and Jefferson, well, still looked like Justin Jefferson.
ANOTHER UNREAL SAM DARNOLD PLAY ‼️
HE FINDS JUSTIN JEFFERSON FOR THE 39-YARD TD TO GIVE MINNESOTA THE LATE LEAD 👏
(via @Vikings) pic.twitter.com/df2NTGs6XO
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 22, 2024
Minnesota’s WR1 posted a 103-1,533-10 line in 2024. He eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the fifth consecutive year, tied a career high in touchdown receptions, and finished as the PPR WR2. Not too shabby.
Jefferson made all those who doubted him look foolish last year. Gamers who drafted him in the middle/back end of Round 1 were handsomely rewarded.
After an end-of-season meltdown, Minnesota decided not to re-sign Darnold this offseason. That means the team is prepared to hand the keys over to the 2024 NFL Draft’s 10th overall pick, J.J. McCarthy.
J.J. McCarthy to Trishton Jackson for the 45 yard TD!
And @JJettas2 LOVES it!
📺: #LVvsMIN on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/QmEKsnabMz— NFL (@NFL) August 10, 2024
The team is reportedly very bullish on McCarthy’s outlook and believes he’s ready to take over as the starter. While that’s good to hear, his presence also means that Jefferson faces quarterback questions for the second consecutive offseason. Unlike last year, though, gamers seem to have learned their lesson and are not letting Jefferson slip in drafts as he has an NFFC average ADP of 5.8 overall.
It’s understandable to worry about the impact an unproven player like McCarthy will have on Jefferson, but we just watched this story play itself out a year ago. Kevin O’Connell seems to be an above-average coach and play-caller. He was able to get the absolute best out of a career journeyman like Darnold. The odds are good that he will put a system in place that highlights McCarthy’s strengths and covers his flaws. That will probably mean calling a lot of plays for Jefferson.
Unless McCarthy is Zach Wilson-level bad, there isn’t much to worry about with Jefferson. He seems to be quarterback-proof and has produced at a high level with multiple signal-callers throughout his career. We might not see him hit double-digit touchdowns with basically a rookie quarterback under center, but Jefferson should still finish 2025 as one of the highest-scoring receivers in fantasy football.
Who Should I Draft in Fantasy Football?
This is a tough call because all three players are talented enough to be the top scorer in all of fantasy football. Barkley presents the most risk of the group because of the nature of his position and due to the fact he is a major regression candidate.
Jefferson once again has major quarterback questions surrounding him. But unlike last year, gamers are not getting a discount on Jefferson this time around. Chase has the fewest question marks surrounding him and is the safest player among this group. This makes him the preferred pick.
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