Fantasy Baseball First Base ADP Report - Draft Targets and Avoids (2025)

January 30, 2025

Tim's 2025 fantasy baseball first base (1B) draft sleepers, targets, avoids based on ADPs. His favorite first base fantasy baseball sleepers to draft in 2025.

The first baseman class for the 2025 fantasy baseball season has usual suspects like World Series MVP Freddie Freeman in the top tier, with varying degrees of helpful players in different categories outside of the top four names.

Investing heavily in first basemen has become less frequent in both fantasy and reality baseball. Those addressing the position on draft day with one of the four studs (some would say five -- more on that later) should have a plan afterward to make up for stolen bases. An increasingly logical strategy says to buy first base in the middle and late rounds while loading up on swipes at other positions.

What do early drafting trends say about first basemen in 2025 fantasy baseball? I've compiled this fantasy baseball average draft position (ADP) data from 20 NFBC Draft Champion drafts. You'll find the ADP tables below, along with my analysis of the ADP at the position, player values I like/dislike, etc. Reminder: This report doesn't reflect my personal rankings but instead breaks down how the early draft market values these first basemen for 2025 fantasy baseball leagues.

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First Base Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

First Basemen I Plan To Draft Most Frequently

1. Michael Toglia - Colorado Rockies
2. Ryan Mountcastle - Baltimore Orioles
3. Jake Burger - Texas Rangers
4. Vinnie Pasquantino - Kansas City Royals
5. Cody Bellinger - New York Yankees
6. Paul Goldschmidt - New York Yankees
7. Christian Encarnacion-Strand - Cincinnati Reds
8. Spencer Horwitz - Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Luke Raley - Seattle Mariners
10. Deyvison De Los Santos - Miami Marlins

I typically aim to lean on the cheaper side at first base while focusing on stolen-base wizards in the early rounds, but I'll start by writing about a quiet, emerging power star.

Toglia's home environment wasn't all that helped his 2024 breakthrough: He finished 15th in barrels per plate appearance (9.6%) and knocked down the 30-homer door this year:

Michael Toglia is destined for 30+ bombs in 2025 and I can’t wait to watch it go down

In the top 9% of the MLB in xSLG, EV, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit%
pic.twitter.com/Z4kbNP1exn

— Overdue Sports (@OverdueSports) December 30, 2024

I hope his near-200 ADP sticks for the rest of the preseason.

Mountcastle and Burger represent the exact type of middle-to-late-round power sources I am looking for.

In Sleeper Fantasy Bats Who'll Rebound In 2025, I wrote about how Camden Yards' latest revisions of their outfield fences could help Mountcastle rekindle his pop.

Burger's batted-ball data ranks among the elite, and the move from Marlins Park (92 Statcast HR Park Factor) to Globe Life Field (115) should put him square in the 30-homer category.

Yes, I will keep chasing the Pasquantino power breakout if you're going to let me snag him in the middle rounds of mixed drafts. Some fixes to the 27-year-old's bat speed and swing path could unlock 30-plus homers annually.

I'm happy to scoop up either Bellinger (preference due to dual-position eligibility) or Goldschmidt. (Don't ignore Goldy's nine HR in 62 games to end 2024.) Also, buy back in on CES after his injury-shortened 2024; track his recovery from right wrist surgery. Jonathan India's trade should help cement his at-bats with the big club.

Horwitz could wind up a sneaky depth helper in OBP leagues, with the bonus of multipositional eligibility. Even in a mere top-side platoon role, Raley's multipositional eligibility could install stealth stolen-base upside at a position that doesn't typically offer it.

Having launched 26 homers across 421 plate appearances in two Triple-A stops, De Los Santos could occupy a middle-of-the-order spot in a (perpetually) up-and-coming Marlins lineup.

First Base ADPs I Don't Love

1. Christian Walker - Houston Astros
2. Pete Alonso - Free Agent
3. Josh Naylor - Arizona Diamondbacks

I'm not going to fault anyone for aggressively grabbing one of the top names, and I might add Alonso to that list for certain as a stud, depending on where he lands. However, I can easily see his cost spiking if he signs with a team boasting a hitter-friendly park, stellar lineup, or both. I prefer not to pay up for someone who we pray hits .250; you can get power guys like that later.

When a position group carries a big gap between the upper tiers and the middle section, I don't want to grab a name first from the middle section. I'm not keen on buying Walker aggressively during his age-34 season.

In the eyes of many drafters looking to wait on a first baseman, Naylor's landing in a positive lineup and park with the Diamondbacks could shield his risk spots (batting average, inflated 18.6% HR/FB when his fly-ball rate didn't change much). Though many of his gains could stick, the gap between Naylor and other bargain names I've mentioned is not as wide as this ADP data suggests.

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