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Welcome back, RotoBallers! As the All-Star break draws ever closer, we have our last massive slate before the pause in play. Wednesday night brings us a 12-game ledger on DK and a 13-game schedule on FD, the latter also including the Clippers-Warriors tilt. Such an expansive player pool can sometimes definitely lead to "paralysis by analysis," but we'll do our best to offer a comprehensive breakdown of where it might be most prudent to narrow your focus tonight.
The key to being successful in NBA DFS comes down to making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always really important to have a game plan and the best players and spots circled first before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and also gain access to our RotoBaller Premium Discord where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate up until lineups lock!
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 2/14/24. Remember to monitor NBA injury news and our awesome NBA injuries report tool, as the slate can completely change before lineups lock at 7:00 p.m. EST on FanDuel and DraftKings. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Today's NBA DFS Core Picks
Let's first take a look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.
With LeBron James ruled out Wednesday due to rest purposes, what was already a premium scenario for Anthony Davis against a Jazz team that's struggled defensively all season and that he's already averaging right below 60 fantasy points against in two previous outings becomes even more appealing.
Victor Wembanyama is coming off a monster 10-block effort against the Raptors and now gets a crack at Daniel Gafford's shoddy defense down low versus the Mavericks, giving the rookie phenom tremendous upside at salaries that are likely to keep climbing throughout the rest of the season.
Brandon Ingram is in an excellent matchup himself versus a fast-paced, defensively challenged Wizards squad that has given up an NBA-high 26.2 offensive efficiency rating to two-guards, along with 38.3 percent three-point shooting to the position.
- Anthony Davis, LAL at UTA - PF/C ($10,100 DK; $11,200 FD)
- Victor Wembanyama, SAS at DAL – PF/C ($9,200 DK; $10,400 FD)
- Brandon Ingram, NOP vs. WAS - SG/SF/PF ($8,100 DK; $8,300 FD)
Since moving to center, Victor Wembanyama has been playing like the best rookie this century, pairing a much-improved offensive game with his unique two-way impact.
Full breakdown:https://t.co/6mjwkOiwG0 pic.twitter.com/GdXUgYVTeT
— Nerd Sesh (@Nerd_Sesh) February 13, 2024
Today's NBA DFS Value Picks
The Wizards have been a sieve against centers all season, and nothing has changed with Daniel Gafford leaving town. That simply puts Marvin Bagley III at the forefront of the center depth chart for Washington, and he can be equally as vulnerable as his former teammate. Washington checks in having allowed over 61 fantasy points on either site to centers in the last 15 games, while Jonas Valanciunas, whose production can fluctuate at times, nevertheless looks primed to take advantage after already lighting up the Wizards for 47 DK/44.1 FD points in their one prior meeting this season.
Buddy Hield has been fantastic since arriving in Philadelphia, helping make up for the absence of Joel Embiid (knee) by putting up over 30 fantasy points on either site in all three games he's played thus far with the Sixers, including a pair of tallies over 40. The Heat played Tuesday night and figure to remain short-handed for Wednesday's matchup, brightening Hield's prospects further.
Keldon Johnson's salaries are especially eye-catching considering he has the upside of a $7K-$8K player. The fifth-year pro has had a few hiccups in recent games, but he's still exceeded 30 fantasy points in six of his last 12 games. He might be best left for tournaments, but Johnson, who's averaged 16.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists across a modest 27.5 minutes in two games versus Dallas this season, is a very viable option, particularly on DK.
Top Value Plays:
- Jonas Valanciunas, NOP vs. WAS – C ($6,600 DK; $6,400 FD)
- Buddy Hield, PHI vs. MIA – SG/SF ($6,300 DK; $7,100 FD)
- Keldon Johnson, SAS at DAL – SF/PF ($5,400 DK; $6,400 FD)
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Today's NBA DFS Picks: Point Guard
Luka Doncic is always naturally a consideration, but especially against a Spurs team that's allowed an NBA-high 32.2 offensive efficiency rating to point guards and has already conceded tallies of over 60 and 70 fantasy points to Doncic in two prior meetings this season.
Trae Young will undoubtedly be an integral part of a game with one of the highest projected totals of the slate and is facing a Hornets squad that's allowing the third-highest offensive efficiency rating to PGs (30.6), along with over 56 DK and 54 FD points per contest to the position in the last 15 games.
Devin Vassell is another member of the Spurs who is intriguing at his salaries Wednesday, considering he's averaging 36.8 DK/35.3 FD points in his last five games alone and is facing a Mavs team that's yielded the third-most DK (45.8) and FD (44.6) points per contest to two-guards in the last 30 games.
Top PG Options:
- Luka Doncic, DAL vs. SAS ($12,100 DK; $12,800 FD)
- Trae Young, ATL at CHA ($9,500 DK; $9,700 FD)
- Devin Vassell, SAS at DAL ($6,600 DK; $7,400 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Picks: Shooting Guard
Ingram, as mentioned earlier, is in a premium matchup against a Wizards team that's been the worst in the league at defending his position. It's also worth noting the veteran wing comes in running hot, having shot 51.7 percent, including 40.0 percent from behind the arc, in the last five games.
Austin Reaves has been an excellent mid-salary fantasy producer throughout the majority of the season, and he checks into Wednesday's very favorable matchup against a Jazz team allowing 40.1 percent three-point shooting to two-guards with a hot hand. Reaves, who's already shooting 66.7 percent in two game versus Utah this season, is also averaging 37.9 DK/37 FD points over his last five games.
Ayo Dosunmu's game environment doesn't necessarily stand out on a night with several likely high-scoring affairs, but the emerging guard's salaries are too enticing to ignore. Dosunmu is thriving in Zach LaVine's (foot) absence and is coming off a career-high 29-point showing against the Hawks on Monday, which pushed his average over the last five games to 28.2 DK/27.3 FD points. Zooming further out, he's hit or eclipsed 28 DK points in six of the last 11 games and has hit or gone over 29 FD points with the same frequency in that span.
Top SG Options:
- Brandon Ingram, NOP vs. WAS ($8,100 DK; $8,300 FD)
- Austin Reaves, LAL at UTA ($6,900, $7,500 FD)
- Ayo Dosunmu, CHI at CLE ($5,200 DK; $6,200 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Picks: Small Forward
Kevin Durant will be taking the floor without Bradley Beal (hamstring) on Wednesday, a scenario where he sports a 31.5 percent usage rate and averages 49.9 DK/48.4 FD points per 36 minutes.
Hield's appeal as a value pick was already discussed earlier in that section, as was Johnson's.
Top SF Options:
- Kevin Durant, PHX vs. DET ($9,900 DK; $10,000 FD)
- Buddy Hield, PHI vs. MIA ($6,300 DK; $7,100 FD)
- Keldon Johnson, SAS at DAL ($5,400 DK; $6,400 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Picks: Power Forward
Wembanyama was already discussed in some detail in the Core Plays section, and in addition to what was cited there, it's worth noting the Mavs are now ranked No. 19 in offensive efficiency allowed to centers and are giving up over 55 DK and 53 FD points per game to the position on the season.
Miles Bridges will be a principal component in what could turn into the best game environment of the night and checks in shooting 51.6 percent, including 42.5 percent from three-point range, over his last six games while averaging 44.5 DK/42.9 FD points in that span. Atlanta also comes in ranked No. 28 in offensive efficiency rating allowed to PFs (31.3) and surrendering an NBA-high 53.7 DK points per game to fours, as well as 51.8 FD points per contest to the position.
Jalen Johnson is in a good spot himself as Bridges' opposite number Wednesday, as the Hornets surrender over 50 fantasy points per game to power forwards on the season and an Eastern Conference-high 31.4 offensive efficiency rating to the position. Johnson has also been offering excellent returns on most nights for multiple weeks and is averaging 40.2 FD points per game over the last 11 while shooting 49.0 percent in that span.
Top PF Options:
- Victor Wembanyama, SAS at DAL – PF/C ($9,200 DK; $10,400 FD)
- Miles Bridges, CHA vs. ATL ($8,800 DK; $9,100 FD)
- Jalen Johnson, ATL at CHA ($7,300 DK; $8,400 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Picks: Center
Davis' highly favorable spot has already been discussed in the Core Plays section, and it's worth adding he averages over 54 fantasy points per 36 minutes on either site with LeBron James off the floor. The Jazz are also surrendering the second-most DK (64.3) and FD (64.1) points per game to centers in the last 15 games.
Domantas Sabonis may be on the second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights on Wednesday, but after recording 87.5 DK/85.6 FD points on Tuesday against the Suns with a 35-point, 18-rebound, 12-assist triple-double, it's impossible to not include him. The Nuggets have allowed an average of 54 DK/49.5 FD points in two games to Sabonis this season as well.
Daniel Gafford has been a hit thus far in Dallas with an average of just under 45 fantasy points per game in his first three contests. The matchup against the Spurs will include having to navigate Wembanyama down low, but San Antonio still checks in allowing a Western Conference-high 36.8 offensive efficiency rating to centers, along with just over 60 DK and over 59 FD points per contest to the position in the last 15 games.
Domantas Sabonis has his 16th triple-double of the season tonight vs. Denver, the most in the NBA this season.
He now has 48 career triple-doubles, including 30 with Sacramento. pic.twitter.com/wdbKu4rOJ3
— Sacramento Kings (@SacramentoKings) February 10, 2024
Top C Options:
- Anthony Davis, LAL at UTA ($10,100 DK; $11,200 FD)
- Domantas Sabonis, SAC at DEN ($10,000 DK; $10,700 FD)
- Daniel Gafford, DAL vs. SAS ($6,100 DK; $7,100 FD)
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stacks
- Hawks at Hornets (238.5 total)
- Spurs at Mavericks (242.0 total)
- Pacers at Raptors (245.0 total)
- Lakers at Jazz (240.5 total)
Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids
- The Knicks-Magic tilt has the feel of a grindy, defense-centric game that will justify its slate-low 211.5-point total.
- The Nets as a whole are a stay-away group for me tonight being on the road and on the second night of a back-to-back set against the same Celtics squad they took a loss to in New York on Tuesday.
My Favorite NBA DFS Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite overall play on the slate: Anthony Davis
- My favorite CASH play on the slate: Miles Bridges
- My favorite GPP play on the slate: Victor Wembanyama
- My favorite value play: Keldon Johnson
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