How To Attack Hitters In The First Three Rounds Of Fantasy Baseball Drafts

February 16, 2024

Mike breaks down draft strategy for selections in the first three rounds of fantasy baseball drafts. How can you ensure you're building the best team right from the start?

We're in the middle of preparing for the most fun thing we will do all year: drafting our fantasy baseball teams. You have probably often heard the idea that you can't win your league with your first picks, but you can sure lose it by starting with bad picks. That being said, let's take a look at how you might attack the first three rounds of a snake draft.

This might go without saying, but you should be looking for hitters who can contribute in at least four of the five hitting categories, assuming a straight 5x5. Many fantasy players will look for players who can get double-digit home runs and stolen bases and also contribute to the batting average and runs scored or RBI categories. Drafting a player named Ronald Acuna Jr. gives you a broad base of skills in every category. He's a no-brainer with the first pick.

But let's say you are picking fifth in a 12-team league. It's a little less clear the further down the first round you go. Mookie Betts is available to you, as are Kyle Tucker and Fernando Tatis Jr. You have one minute to decide. Let's talk about that process. The ATC projections of those three players are listed below.

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Building the First Three Rounds: Mindset and Example

Round 1

Betts has the highest ADP of the group. He has the most projected RBI of the group, but the lowest projected stolen base total. Selecting Betts means that you might have to chase stolen bases later, but you should be able to "bank" on a high batting average, 30 home runs, 100 RBI, and perhaps more than 100 runs in a stacked Los Angeles Dodgers lineup.

Betts is a great foundational piece. He also has dual eligibility at second base and outfield. Keep in mind that selecting him here means you will have to find stolen bases later.

Round 2

Moving to Round 2, you will have the 20th pick. Looking at current ADP values on NFBC, you could have your pick of Austin Riley, Elly De La Cruz, or Francisco Lindor. Here are the ATC projections:

Your choice here to go with Betts might be to look at how to augment your stolen bases. De La Cruz could hit 25 home runs and steal 40 bases; Lindor could hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases. Consider as well that Betts will likely hit close to .300; Lindor and De La Cruz might hit .250 or less.

Riley is a pure power hitter who could get 40 home runs. The choice is almost completely arbitrary, and it depends on how you want to construct your roster. De La Cruz is probably the biggest risk with the biggest potential reward here. The chart below sums up the risk and reward of De La Cruz; his 119.2 max exit velocity is in the top 1% of all the MLB, while his 33.7% K% is in the lowest 3% in baseball. High risk, high reward, indeed.

Round 3

Let's take a look at possible third-round targets for your team. If you start with the fifth pick, you will pick 29th overall in the third round. Per NFBC ADP in 12-team drafts, the following players could be available to you:

Let's say for the sake of argument that you drafted Betts with the fifth overall pick and De La Cruz with the 20th pick. Both players have multiple positional eligibility (Betts at 2B and OF, De La Cruz at SS and 3B). Betts gives you the high floor you like in the first round, and De La Cruz gives you a very high ceiling with a touch of trepidation baked in here.

Henderson also provides multiple position eligibility, but you love Luis Robert Jr. Robert is an outfielder. Depending on what you do here, you could use Betts in the outfield and have two premier picks at that thin position. Then, you could target a second baseman later in a later round.

Having flexibility as you build a roster is like having gold. If you roster Betts, De La Cruz, and Robert in the first three rounds in a 12-team draft, you may have rostered 85 home runs, 70 stolen bases, and nearly 300 runs scored and 250 runs batted in.

That's a good start for any roster. So much depends on your strengths in building rosters and how much risk you are willing to embrace. Last year, Robert traded 20 points of batting average (.284 in 2022, .264 in 2023) for more power, hitting 38 home runs and stealing 20 bases as well. This was a good trade-off. The Robert profile is enticing, indeed. The chart below has lots of red.

If you start a draft with Betts, De La Cruz, and Robert, you can likely then take an ace in the fourth round, and maybe get a closer in the sixth or seventh round, too. The goal is to build a broad skill base of players that allows you to attack every hitting category with those top three picks.

Some Final Tips

The outfield ranks thin quickly. In many leagues, you may need to fill five outfield slots. In a 12-team league, that would be 60 outfielders deep. In a 15-team league, that is 75 outfielders deep. In some leagues, you might only need to start three outfielders. Considering that you will likely carry at least one or two extra outfielders and that many MLB teams have platoons or unsure players in the outfield, when in doubt in a snake draft early, take the outfielder. Look for boring players later and also those with upside. There is nothing wrong with rostering Tyler O'Neill around pick 220 and maybe taking a chance on Jung Hoo Lee a round or two later. That balance of known floors and unknown upsides makes the game fun and helps build a balanced roster.

Keep in mind that you will need more stolen bases to be competitive in the category this year. When deciding on hitters in subsequent rounds, always look for guys who could chip in with 10-15 steals. Never stop adding steals if you can help it. If you grab a guy with zero steals, like Giancarlo Stanton, you need to make that up later with a guy who could augment your bottom line of stolen bases, like Jake Fraley or Brenton Doyle. Not particularly high on either guy, but you get the point of the exercise.

If it's a league you historically have played in, know where your league mates value and draft pitching. This could change your first three rounds strategy. In higher-stakes leagues, know that mock drafts will not prepare you for the early run on starting pitchers and closers. You will likely need to adapt your strategy depending on what your thoughts about having an ace and a top closer are this year.

Populating a strong queue is the best thing you can do for yourself in a fast-moving snake draft. You might have a minute to make a decision. Always have 4-5 possibilities that you can pivot to quickly. Chances are high that you will get sniped on a player you like. Always have alternatives and always be ready to pivot and take what the draft brings you. A run on a certain position could open up a buying opportunity elsewhere for you.

Do not fall in love with any player, but if you do, get that player. Many analysts will suggest on podcasts and articles "go get your guy." Do that, unless your guy is Leury Garcia. After all, fantasy baseball should be about having fun, first and foremost.

Take a quick analysis of where you are at after three rounds to better identify what you might need to attack later. Be mindful of position scarcity as you meander through your draft. Be aware that you might need to select a guy sooner than ADP if you really want them.  ADP is a fine guide, but don't be married to it. As said earlier, get your guys.

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