RADIO
Welcome to the Week 17 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 17th main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Derek Carr, NO at TB | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $26
Carr has been up and down in his first Saints season, but he's working with the healthiest pass-catching crew he'll have for what remains of the season and will be doing so in a critical game against a secondary that's been vulnerable for a good portion of the season. Carr is also coming in off one of his best performances of the season and with the benefit of extra rest and practice time, brightening his outlook further against a Buccaneers' defense that's allowed 264.1 passing yards per game, including 289 per game, over the last three contests.
#Saints TOUCHDOWN!
Derek Carr with a DIME to Juwan Johnson!#Rams lead 30-14...pic.twitter.com/0KhpegQLq2 https://t.co/KSfvt8KU2C
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 22, 2023
Jarrett Stidham, DEN vs. LAC | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $20
Stidham is going to likely draw a fair amount of attention from DFS players this week considering his salaries, the talent he'll be working with, and the goodwill he built up late last season in a curiously similar situation with the Raiders. Stidham was called on to replace Carr in Las Vegas with two games remaining and put together a memorable 365-yard, three-touchdown outburst against the 49ers in Week 17 that netted 31 DK/ 28 FD and Yahoo points. He now draws a matchup against a Chargers' defense giving up 260.6 passing yards per road game, giving him an excellent opportunity to overdeliver on his very modest salaries.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Jacoby Brissett, WAS vs. SF | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $20
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Austin Ekeler, LAC at DEN | DK: $6,700, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $24
Ekeler somewhat unsurprisingly regained his usual role as the lead back in his first game under interim head coach Giff Smith, with the versatile running back totaling 84 yards on 18 touches. Ekeler's 15 carries in that game were actually his highest tally since Week 10, and he should therefore be primed for another busy afternoon in what has developed into the most favorable matchup in the AFC for running backs. The matchup versus the Broncos' defense could hardly be better, considering Los Angeles has yielded an AFC-high 141.1 rushing yards per contest on the season.
Austin Ekeler got his regular usage in his first game with Giff Smith compared to his final game with Brandon Staley:
Snaps: 38% ⬆️ 66%
Attempts: 19% ⬆️ 58%
Routes: 42% ⬆️ 54%Ekeler gets the Broncos (31st in fantasy PPG to RB) up next.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) December 27, 2023
D'Andre Swift, PHI vs. ARI | DK: $6,500, FD: $7,600, Yahoo: $23
Like Ekeler, Swift is a multi-talented asset that will enjoy a very good positional matchup on paper in Week 17, with the Cardinals' run defense essentially the NFC version of the Broncos' porous front. Swift checks into the contest already enjoying some solid momentum, as he's netted 166 rushing yards and a touchdown on 38 carries over his previous two games. He now tangles with an Arizona squad that's allowed an NFL-high 147.0 rushing yards per game, including 174.7 per contest in the last three games.
ALSO CONSIDER: Devin Singletary, HOU vs. TEN | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $20
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Rashee Rice, KC vs. CIN | DK: $6,900, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $26
There's rightfully plenty of talk about one of the big reasons for the Chiefs' underwhelming offensive performances this season being the lack of a true No. 1 receiver, but it's highly likely that won't come close to applying by this time next year. That's due to the presence of Rice, who's already made quite the impression as a rookie with a 74-811-7 line on 96 targets through 15 games.
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice’s 565 yards after the catch ranks 4th in the league while also the best in the league among rookies in the same category and is a huge asset for the Chiefs’ offense.#ChiefsKingdom
pic.twitter.com/4uym0fmgrr— Chiefs Kingdom (@ChiefsFan4Lyfe) December 27, 2023
Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. PIT | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $19
Lockett hasn't had anywhere the prolific touchdown production of years past, but his 12 red zone targets are his highest tally since 2020 and third-most of his long career. What's more, Lockett is still drawing 33.1 percent of the Seahawks' air yards and 23.3 percent of his team's targets, meaning he's certainly worthy of consideration at his salaries for the amount of opportunity he should see in yet another critical game for Seattle.
Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs. LAC | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $16
Jeudy admittedly requires a bit of faith to roster, but there are a couple of factors that could indeed lead to him putting together a productive performance in Week 17. One of them is the ascension of Stidham to the starting job, who, as already illustrated in his entry, has a positive track record when it comes to late-season starting assignments. The other is the potential absence of position mate Courtland Sutton, who's missed the first two practices of the week with the concussion that forced his early exit from Week 16 against the Patriots.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- George Pickens, PIT at SEA | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $23
Yahoo-Only Specials:
- A.J. Brown, PHI vs. ARI | $29
- Stefon Diggs, BUF vs. NE | $26
- Puka Nacua, LAR at NYG | $26
Tight End DFS Value Plays
George Kittle, SF at WAS | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $21
Kittle offered a reminder of his ability to pop off for a must-have DFS score in a tough on-paper matchup against the Ravens on Monday night, recording a 7-126 line on 10 targets that netted 22.6 DK/16.1 FD and Yahoo points. The gifted tight end should be an integral part of the air attack once again in Week 17 as Brock Purdy looks to rebound from his ugly four-interception night versus Baltimore, and the matchup against Washington's porous pass defense could hardly be better.
GEORGE KITTLE GIFTING FANTASY MANAGERS EARLY 🎁
pic.twitter.com/htjZQhVmZo— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 26, 2023
Juwan Johnson, NO at TB | DK: $3,400, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $11
Johnson hasn't fully built on his encouraging 2022 for a variety of reasons, injury among them. However, the talented veteran has shown signs of increasing chemistry with Carr after a late start to the season, and he'll have a chance to continue building that rapport at bargain salaries across the board in a game the Saints must have to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. The matchup against a Buccaneers' defense that's been vulnerable to tight ends all season is enticing as well, with Tampa Bay having surrendered a robust 88-928-5 line to the position on the campaign.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Isaiah Likely, BAL vs. MIA| DK: $4,600, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $16
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