RADIO
Welcome to the Week 16 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 16th main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Baker Mayfield, TB vs. JAX | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $27
Mayfield has been a pleasant surprise all season for the Buccaneers as Tom Brady's immediate successor, but his Week 15 performance was actually better than many the future Hall of Famer put together in his final season in 2022. Mayfield was locked in at what was arguably a career-best level against the Packers, throwing for 381 yards and four touchdowns while remaining interception-free for the second straight game. The Bucs remain in the thick of the playoff hunt and the visiting Jaguars are allowing 256.6 passing yards per game, including 262.3 in the last three, keeping Mayfield firmly in play at his salaries.
Finally had time to put the melt together, but I present to you:
Baker Mayfield in his bag #GoBucs pic.twitter.com/AmnlCPGrku
— Evan Closky (@ECloskyWTSP) December 21, 2023
Joe Flacco, CLE at HOU | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $26
Flacco has been the talk of the league with his ability to step in off the couch and help increasingly lock in a postseason spot for the Browns following their quarterback carousel earlier in the season. The grizzled veteran has thrown for 311 and 374 yards in his last two games yet continues to sport virtually unchanged salaries. Flacco has also tossed multiple touchdown passes in each of his three starts, and although he's had issues with interceptions, he should have increased chemistry with his pass catchers with each game he plays. The Texans have been relatively solid against the pass all season, but Flacco's experience and solid array of pass-catching weapons, which includes plenty to work with in that regard at running back and tight end in addition to receiver, should help usher him to another strong showing.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Geno Smith, SEA at TEN | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $26
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. GB | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $23
Hubbard snatched the lead-back role from Miles Sanders and didn't look back, and he'll check into Week 16 having logged at least 22 carries in three straight games. It's a tough week to find value at running back, and the combination of Hubbard's volume with a matchup against a Packers team allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (138.8), including 152 over the last three contests as well as 4.3 yards per carry and 12 rushing TDs to running backs, puts the Panthers' lead runner firmly into play.
Devin Singletary, HOU vs. CLE | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $23
Singletary makes for an intriguing option against a Browns defense that's been a completely different unit on the road than it has at home. Cleveland is surrendering 345.3 total yards per game on the road compared to 197.9 per home contest, and the Browns have given up 122 of those yards per road contest on the ground. Cleveland has also surrendered eight rushing TDs to running backs while Singletary has clear possession of the primary back role and is coming off a game where he posted 170 total yards on 30 total touches, making him very appealing at his salaries.
Case Keenum AND DEVIN SINGLETARY SAVE THE TEXANS' PLAYOFF CHANCES! pic.twitter.com/sE2zqnn8Fj
— Ben Brown 🌻 (@BenBrownPL) December 17, 2023
DraftKings-FanDuel Special:
- Bijan Robinson, ATL vs. IND | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $29
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Amari Cooper, CLE at HOU | DK: $6,400, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $18
Cooper makes for an intriguing stacking partner with Flacco, with whom he seems to have developed quick chemistry. The duo teamed up for a dynamic fourth-quarter touchdown in Week 15 and Cooper has a 14-220-1 line and 25.5 percent target rate on routes run since Flacco took over the starting role three games ago. The Texans have been an above-average team at limiting wide receiver production, but they've also yielded an elevated 13.9 yards per reception to wideouts. Cooper has 22 targets over his last two games alone and is too important a part of the Browns' air attack not to see big volume again, so he remains very much a consideration at his salaries, especially on Yahoo.
AMARI COOPER: CLUTCH 🔥pic.twitter.com/U5akyvDdys
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) December 17, 2023
Jordan Addison, MIN vs. DET | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $24
In Week 15, Addison rewarded those DFS players that rightfully recognized he still had plenty of upside despite Justin Jefferson's return, posting a 6-111-2 line against the Bengals that netted 32.1 DK/26.1 FD and Yahoo points. The rookie should continue to benefit greatly from the attention bestowed on Jefferson in Week 16 by a porous Lions secondary that's allowed 251 passing yards per road game at 11.8 yards per completion. Detroit has also 16 receiving TDs to wideouts, while Addison has a solid 18 red zone targets in 14 games this season. With Nick Mullens having proven competent in his first start and now having had extra time to develop rapport with his pass catchers, Addison could be in for another noteworthy performance.
Drake London, ATL vs. IND | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $18
London gets Taylor Heinicke back under center this week, and while that may not represent much of an upgrade over the demoted Desmond Ridder, Heinicke at least brings the benefit of experience that should help London avoid the duds he's sandwiched around a standout 10-172 effort versus Tampa Bay in Week 14 that served as a true indicator of the second-year wideout's ceiling. London has eight catches on 11 targets in the two games he's played with Heinicke this season, and he faces a Colts defense that's surrendered 13.2 yards per catch and 12 receiving touchdowns to wideouts. With Atlanta having no choice but to get a bit more aggressive than usual as their season hangs in the balance and the fast track of his home dome environment, the conditions could be right for London to overdeliver on his salaries again.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Tyler Lockett, SEA at TEN | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $17
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Evan Engram, JAX at TB | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $22
Engram still doesn't have complete certainty when it comes to which quarterback he'll be catching passes from Sunday, but he's an excellent play in any scenario given his typical role and the matchup. The veteran tight end is now just 12 receptions short of his 100-catch season, and he has a whopping 109 targets on the season, the second-highest total of his career. Engram has seen at least six targets in every game since Week 2, and he'll be facing a Bucs defense that's given up a 78-833-5 line to tight ends over 14 games.
Evan Engram’s 88 Receptions in 2023 ranks 6th in #Jaguars’ history.
Three games yet to play!
pic.twitter.com/a27bwmozjF— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) December 21, 2023
David Njoku, CLE at HOU | DK: $5,30, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $22
As alluded to earlier in Flacco's entry, Njoku is a valuable weapon who has become even more involved with the veteran quarterback under center. Njoku is coming off a stellar 10-104-1 showing against the Bears that netted 29.4 DK/21.4 FD points, and he's posted 16 catches for 195 yards and three touchdowns overall in his last two games. The Texans have generally been tough against wide receivers but have yielded the second-most receptions (91) and fourth-most receiving yards (875) to tight ends, putting Njoku firmly in play.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Jake Ferguson, DAL at MIA| DK: $4,900, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $18
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