RADIO
Juan's top NFL DFS value plays for Week 13 of the 2023 season. These sleepers are cheap on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Yahoo daily fantasy football contests.
Welcome to the Week 13 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 13th main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Brock Purdy, SF at PHI | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,800, Yahoo: $32
Purdy continues to be offered at very reasonable salaries, particularly on DK, and he runs into a particularly intriguing scenario this week where he could be coaxed into one of his top-end performances. The 49ers often have the advantage of not having to lean on Purdy and the passing game an overt amount due to their elite ability to run the ball and frequent sizable leads, but a matchup against an Eagles defense the know they'll have to remain aggressive against and that's vulnerable to the pass could change that significantly.
The Eagles are facing a league-high 67.97% pass play rate for good reason -- Philly is shutting down the run to the tune of a miserly 85.3 rushing yards per game allowed. The constant barrage of pass attempts against them has inevitably led to the Eagles allowing some elevated metrics versus the pass, as they surrender an NFL-high 293.6 passing yards per home game at 10.4 yards per completion. Christian McCaffrey will still naturally see his fair share of rush attempts, but Purdy should be plenty busy throughout the afternoon, including on plenty of occasions where San Fran will likely opt to replace the run with the short pass to its explosive back.
The best throws from #49ers Brock Purdy — your NFC Offensive Player of the Week 🫡 pic.twitter.com/brt4bJvCs3
— 𝙏𝙝𝙚𝙎𝙁𝙉𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙨 (@TheSFNiners) November 22, 2023
Kenny Pickett, PIT vs. ARI | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $20
Pickett's inclusion is based on about one part empirical evidence and two parts gut instinct, all of it stemming from the Steelers' offense's Week 12 performance against the Bengals. With new play caller Mike Sullivan and new scheme architect Eddie Faulkner at the helm of the unit this past week following Matt Canada's dismissal, Pickett looked like a new quarterback despite Pittsburgh not putting up an impressive amount of points, throwing for a season-high 278 yards on a season-best 72.7 percent completion rate.
The Cardinals have been more vulnerable to the run, but that doesn't make them a stay-away pass defense by any stretch. Arizona is allowing 225.7 passing yards per road game at a notably elevated 11.4 yards per completion and bloated 70.8 percent completion rate. With the "new-look" Steelers offense looking like it's going to be more aggressive and creative than its previous version and Pittsburgh's pass-catching playmakers healthy, consider giving Pickett a shot in a game that could be reasonably competitive.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Gardner Minshew, IND at TEN | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $23
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Rachaad White, TB vs. CAR | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $27
White put together a 100-yard performance in Week 12 against what is arguably a tougher run defense than the one he'll face in this matchup, and he actually was underused in the passing game compared to his usual robust profile in that area. His salaries would ideally be a bit lower across the board, but given his typical volume and the high likelihood of an eventual positive game script for Tampa Bay's ground attack, he's very much in consideration.
The Panthers have improved some against the run as the season has unfolded, but Carolina is still allowing 135 rushing yards per road game and doing so at 4.4 yards per carry. White has struggled for running room often behind Tampa Bay's spotty blocking, but the matchup and the fact Carolina has also conceded a 49-269-3 line through the air to running backs certainly helps his cause.
RB Must Start Stud:
Rachaad White vs CAR
CAR allows the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs this season…
White has finished a top 20 RB for six straight weeks…
16+ opportunities in each of those games…
Low-end RB1 based on volume.
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) November 30, 2023
Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. ARI | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $22
Warren was a DFS value darling last week, and while his performance against the Bengals certainly wasn't poor, it was actually backfield mate Najee Harris who enjoyed more success on the ground. Given it was the first game under the team's new offensive leadership, that workload split could have some staying power, or it could simply have been circumstantial in nature. In any event, with Warren having proven one of the few viable components in the recent weeks leading into the coaching change, it's only logical he'd continue to see plenty of opportunity in a tweaked scheme that already looks like it will emphasize getting the ball into the hands of playmakers.
As alluded to in Pickett's entry, the matchup against the Cardinals run defense is a tantalizing one, with the Rams' Kyren Williams offering a very tangible example of such in Week 12. Arizona is allowing 174.3 rushing yards per game over the last three contests, and the Cards allow 1.45 yards before first contact per carry, the league's fifth-highest rate, as per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Warren should still be in line for 12-15 carries and 3-4 targets at minimum, giving him more than enough of a platform to do some damage.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Zack Moss, IND at TEN | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $17
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Michael Pittman Jr., IND at TEN | DK: $7,100, FD: $7,900, Yahoo: $24
Pittman turned in a trademark 10-catch, 107-yard effort against the Buccaneers in Week 12, and although his salaries are a bit on the elevated side of the value scale -- particularly on FD -- he's still carrying a very good chance of returning a solid fantasy-point-per-dollar return in a game against a Titans pass defense that's had its share of struggles this season.
Tennessee is playing tighter and more effective coverage of late, but the Titans are still facing an elevated 61.0% pass play rate at home and have surrendered 39.2 DK/30.4 FD points per game to wide receivers, along with 12.2 yards per reception and 10 receiving touchdowns. Pittman has one of the safest floors at his position and is drawing a whopping 30.7% of the Colts' targets while drawing a target on 25% of his routes. With Tennessee not incapable of putting some pressure on opposing offenses with Will Levis showing some improved efficiency in the last pair of contests, Pittman could certainly have a productive afternoon.
Second 4th down conversion by the #Colts. 4th-and-3, Michael Pittman Jr. vs Carlton Davis III, MPJ gets inside leverage and gets his strong hands on the ball that was thrown behind him.
Set up a 58-yard field goal attempt to end the 1st half. pic.twitter.com/VjHPbMPkKq
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 28, 2023
Courtland Sutton, DEN at HOU | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $19
Sutton's salaries have stubbornly remained low all season, despite the veteran receiver having more touchdown equity than at any time before in his career. The talented wideout has demonstrated impressive chemistry with Russell Wilson all season and has generally carried a safe floor, posting double-digit fantasy points on nine occasions on DK and in seven instances on FD/Yahoo.
The Texans have often done a good job on receivers, but as the Jaguars' Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk demonstrated last week, they're certainly not above surrendering some production in that regard. Houston is also giving up an elevated 68.9% completion rate and 291.3 passing yards per contest in the last three games, along with 13.5 yards per catch to wide receivers specifically. Sutton's red-zone role --he has 15 targets from the 20-yard line in over 11 games -- dovetails nicely with the 61.1% red-zone TD percentage that Houston surrenders at home.
George Pickens, PIT vs. ARI | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $16
As mentioned in Warren's entry, the new Sullivan-Faulker offensive brain trust in Pittsburgh already looks primed to focus in on getting the ball into the hands of the team's most explosive players, as would seem logical. Pickens wasn't an immediate beneficiary of the new approach in Week 12 against the Bengals -- although he did post a serviceable 3-58 line on five targets -- but that does nothing to change his ceiling, which is especially noteworthy at his salaries.
The Cardinals have surrendered the sixth-most receptions (158), sixth-most receiving yards (2,032) and 10 receiving touchdowns to wideouts, leading to Arizona conceding 36.6 DK/ 28.7 FD and Yahoo points per game to the position. Pickens has the ability to offer strong returns on his reasonable salaries with just a couple of catches as well, considering 14 of his 40 catches have gone for 20+ yards, with three of those going for 40+ yards.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Lynn Bowden, NO vs. DET | DK: $3,000, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $10
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Taysom Hill, NO vs. DET | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,500, * listed as QB*: Yahoo: $20
The Saints' offense could be down both Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (thigh) in addition to Michael Thomas (IR-knee) for Sunday's game, setting up a scenario that could be ideal for Hill's highly eclectic skill set. The versatile veteran should see an uptick in pass-catching work under any circumstance, and it will come in a matchup against a team that's been vulnerable to tight ends all season.
The Lions check in having surrendered a 53-530-5 line to tight ends on the campaign, while Hill already has a career-high 24 receptions, which he's taken for 214 yards. Additionally, he can accumulate points for you through passing and rushing as well, and on the latter front, it's worth noting he's already logged a robust 23 red-zone rush attempts in 11 games.
Taysom Hill looking like a WR1 out there 😱
📺: #NOvsATL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/1dOevJjoZZ pic.twitter.com/jfbDEWufQK— NFL (@NFL) November 26, 2023
Logan Thomas, WAS vs. MIA | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $14
The Commanders' receivers have largely had the wealth of Washington's pass-heavy approach spread amongst them, preventing each from truly standing out in any given week for a true had-to-have-it DFS score. However, Thomas has been a bit of an exception from the tight end position, as he's actually had one nine-catch outing and also stands out this week as an option Sam Howell may have to frequently avail himself of with his starting wideouts set to be covered by Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey.
The Dolphins have allowed a 62-606-3 line to tight ends this season on 81 targets, leading to an elevated catch rate surrendered of 76.5%. Thomas' 45-424-3 line is the second best of his career behind only that of his standout 2020 season, and the veteran also has a career-high 72.6% catch rate. With the Commanders potentially going even more pass heavy than usual given the opponent but the receivers likely to face sticky coverage, Thomas could be in for a very busy afternoon.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. ARI | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $14 // Juwan Johnson, NO vs. DET | DK: $3,400, FD: $4,900, Yahoo: $11
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