RADIO
Welcome to the Week 11 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 11th main slate of the 2023 campaign, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a rollercoaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Sam Howell, WAS vs. NYG | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,700, Yahoo: $27
Howell continued to produce at salaries just slightly lower than this week's figures in Week 10, producing 28.2 DK/24.2 FD and Yahoo points in the narrow loss to the Seahawks. The performance was Howell's third straight over 300 yards, and he also has an 8:2 TD:INT in that same span. The second-year signal-caller has clearly proven a very good fit for offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy's pass-centric scheme. This week, he faces a Giants team that's clearly spiraling and perhaps even lacking a bit of incentive as they start the back end of a season gone horribly wrong.
Kyler Murray, ARI at HOU | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,600, Yahoo: $28
One of the big questions in fantasy circles going into Week 10 was how Murray would look in his first game action in exactly 11 months. It had appeared the Cardinals were slow-walking the star quarterback's return, fueling some conspiracy theories about the team trying to tank, by activating him in the third and final week of his practice window. However, it appears the patient approach may have been prudent, considering Murray looked to be in true mid-season form by throwing for 249 yards and rushing for 33 and a score in a spirited win over the Falcons.
Kyler Murray is all the way back 🔥
(🎥 @AZCardinals)
pic.twitter.com/nhfYCGajJS— PFF (@PFF) November 14, 2023
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Geno Smith, SEA at LAR | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $25
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Running Back DFS Value Plays
Tony Pollard, DAL at CAR | DK: $6,600, FD: $7,700, Yahoo: $23
Pollard increasingly qualifies for the "how the mighty have fallen" category from a fantasy perspective as the season approaches the stretch run, as his numbers, relative to preseason expectations, have been disappointing. Nevertheless, Pollard's ceiling remains as strong as ever, and this matchup might be one that could coax one of the veteran back's best performances out of him. The Panthers have struggled to stop the run the majority of the campaign, and if Dallas overpowers Carolina as expected, game script should work in the Cowboys' running game's favor.
Devin Singletary, HOU vs. ARI | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $20
Dameon Pierce failed to practice for a second straight day Thursday, casting serious doubt on a Week 11 return for the second-year back. Given how inefficient Pierce has been this season and Singletary's stellar output in Week 10, there's probably not a significant degree of urgency to get Pierce back in the fold anyhow. Meanwhile, Singletary's salaries are surprisingly still very modest despite his 150-yard, one-touchdown tally against the Bengals, and the Cardinals defense presents another highly appealing scenario given its troubles to stop the run.
Devin Singletary had a season-high rush rate at 88.2%, with a previous high of 76.5% in Week 9. In 2022, his season-high rush share came in Week 6 at 54.8%, with an 81.5% rush share in Week 15 of 2021.
It's rare to see him dominate the backfield rush share, but he looked good. https://t.co/T56VlxyImk pic.twitter.com/uAJEzJPYRl
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 13, 2023
ALSO CONSIDER:
- James Cook, BUF vs. NYJ | DK: $6,100, FD: $6,200, Yahoo: $17
- Brian Robinson Jr., WAS vs. NYG | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $21
DraftKings-Yahoo Special:
- Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs. CHI | DK: $7,000, Yahoo: $24
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Christian Kirk, JAC vs. TEN | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,900, Yahoo: $21
Kirk came out of the Week 9 bye with another productive performance, posting a 6-104 line on 11 targets versus San Francisco. The veteran wideout's rapport with Trevor Lawrence is above question, and he's now boasting a 48-615-3 line on a 23.9% target share since Week 2. Kirk's floor remains as safe as any mid-salary wideout, and he'll get a crack Sunday at a Titans defense that's allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts of teams that have played nine games to date (1,646).
Christian Kirk has a perfect 158.3 NFL Rating when targeted deep. (20+ Yards) #Jaguars
Kirk: 7 TGT, 6 REC, 189 Yards, 2TDs
pic.twitter.com/CqeO82QvWZ— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) November 11, 2023
Tank Dell, HOU vs. ARI | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $21
Plenty of the DFS field will undoubtedly flock to Noah Brown when targeting Texans receivers in Week 11, and the veteran is indeed a fine play and featured in the "Also Consider" section below. However, Dell should be the healthier of the two by far if Brown even plays, which is in doubt heading into Friday considering he's missed the first two practices of the week with a knee injury. Nico Collins (calf) has managed to turn in two limited practices to open Houston's Week 11 prep and therefore seems to have a fair chance of returning Sunday. Still, Dell is a fine play under any circumstance against a Cardinals team that's allowed nine receiving touchdowns and 13.1 yards per catch to wideouts through 10 games.
Jayden Reed, GB vs. LAC | DK: $4,000, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $20
Reed's salaries are especially eye-catching when considering the upside the rookie offers and the increasing role he seems to be enjoying in Green Bay's offense. Reed is coming off a 5-84-1 line against the Steelers in Week 10, and he also posted a 4-83 tally versus the Vikings in Week 8. While Jordan Love has certainly had trouble with his accuracy and Reed has seen six or fewer targets in five straight games, his matchup against a Chargers defense that's allowed 10 touchdowns and an elevated 15.0 yards per catch to wideouts -- along with a 41.0 DK/32.8 FD and Yahoo points per game to the position -- puts the speedster in play for tournaments as a high-ceiling value option.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Noah Brown, HOU vs. ARI | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $19
- Marquise Brown, ARI at HOU | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $16
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. NYJ | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $17
Kincaid has rapidly gained Josh Allen's trust during the tight end's rookie campaign, and the struggling quarterback is likely to latch on to any playmaker he can at the moment, especially in a matchup that's given him as much trouble as the Jets. Not only has Kincaid seen between six and 11 targets in each of the last four games, but in contrast to how effective New York has been against receivers, Gang Green has been vulnerable to the tight end position.
One of the good things from a rather disappointing season is the emergence of tight end Dalton Kincaid
It’s looks like the Bills have found themselves a stud at the tight end position #BillsMafia | #GoBills
pic.twitter.com/kxO2vkDBSd— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) November 15, 2023
Trey McBride, ARI at HOU | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $19
McBride's breakout performances in recent weeks have caught many in fantasy circles off guard, but anyone who saw the second-year tight end's body of work in his final season at Colorado State may have seen this coming. McBride racked up 90 catches for 1,121 yards and a touchdown and also even scored on a 69-yard run. The athletic McBride showed excellent rapport with Murray in the latter's Week 10 debut as well, posting eight receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown.
ALSO CONSIDER:
- Tyler Conklin, NYJ at BUF | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $11
DraftKings-FanDuel Special:
- Cole Kmet, CHI at DET | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,600
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