RADIO
John Brubaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - TNF Week 11 Bengals vs Ravens showdown slate on 11/6. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! After a few lackluster Thursday Night Football matchups we have probably one of the most fun matchups we'll see throughout the year. It'll be Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) heading over to take on their AFC North rival Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (7-3). While this game could certainly turn into a defensive battle, which won't necessarily be great for fantasy purposes, this should be a fun one.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bengals vs. Ravens NFL DFS showdown slate on November 16. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Ja'Marr Chase - WR, $16,500 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 99 targets, 69 receptions, 821 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR1: -1.22%
I'll start things off tonight with Ja'Marr Chase. The Bengals will obviously be without Tee Higgins in this one, and while this may end up hurting Chase, I think it'll help. My model projects Chase to catch 7.27 of 9.76 targets for 96.99 yards and 0.65 touchdowns. While I believe the Bengals may have some trouble moving the ball down the field against this vaunted Ravens defense, I think Chase will be the primary driver of that Bengals offense.
Mark Andrews - TE, $13,200 (DK), $13,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 59 targets, 43 receptions, 521 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs TE: 24.73%
I'll take a look at Mark Andrews next. Andrews projects as the best pass-catcher on the other side of this game, as my model has Andrews catching 5.58 of his 7.14 targets for 70.68 yards and 0.46 touchdowns. He has not only a very strong matchup in terms of DVOA (as seen above), but he also has a 22% matchup advantage according to PFF. If this game turns into a higher-scoring affair, I think Andrews has himself a huge night, perhaps even catching multiple touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, Keaton Mitchell
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DFS Flex Plays
Lamar Jackson - QB, $10,800 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 2,177 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, five interceptions, 92 rushing attempts, 481 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns, and six fumbles lost.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 11.26%
I'll take a look at Lamar Jackson next. Lamar isn't necessarily projected to have a huge game through the air: 19.13/31.69 for 247.54 yards, 1.47 touchdowns, and 0.87 interceptions. However, he is projected to have a huge game on the ground: 8.7 carries for 60.2 rushing yards and 0.41 rushing touchdowns. The Bengals rank 28th in QB rushing attempts (5.22) and QB rushing yards (27.44) per game while ranking 22nd in QB rushing touchdowns per game (0.33).
Gus Edwards - RB, $7,000 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 121 rushing attempts, 502 rushing yards, eight targets, seven receptions, 111 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: 34.47%
I'll take a look at Gus Edwards here next. As you can see above, the Ravens have a very strong matchup against the Bengals in the run game. Edwards projects to 10.69 carries for 48.05 rushing yards and 0.4 rushing touchdowns. The Bengals have defended the run much better lately, but are due for some regression and should find their level against this top-ranked Baltimore run game. It'll most likely be a split between Edwards and Keaton Mitchell, but more on that later...
Other Flex Options: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Zay Flowers
DFS Value Plays
Baltimore Ravens - D/ST, $4,600 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 14.9 points per game allowed, 39 sacks, 10 interceptions, five fumble recoveries, and one defensive touchdown.
As I mentioned earlier when talking about Ja'Marr Chase, things may get sticky for the Bengals in this one. Cincinnati came through against the Ravens back in Week 2 in a 27-24 victory. However, it's worth noting that this rivalry fluctuates between very high and very low-scoring games. The Ravens project a whopping 34.75% pressure rate and 8.11% sack rate in this one while providing little resistance in the run game. I'll back them to hold the Bengals' offense down here.
Keaton Mitchell - RB, $5,600 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 12 rushing attempts, 172 rushing yards, four targets, three receptions, 37 receiving yards, and two touchdowns.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: 34.47%
To wrap things up, I'll take a look at Keaton Mitchell. Mitchell projects to 31.06 rushing yards on just 6.51 carries while adding 1.12 receptions on 1.89 targets for another 8.46 yards and 0.27 touchdowns. Mitchell has come on strong over these past few weeks, and I expect him to keep things rolling against Cincinnati's defense that ranks 29th in rushing DVOA (1.63%). In my Baltimore-dominant lineups, I have no problem playing both Edwards and Mitchell, but if I'm picking one, I'd actually choose Mitchell over Edwards for the upside.
Other Value Plays: Justin Tucker, Evan McPherson, Rashod Bateman
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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