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The FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship) is the home for serious fantasy football players to compete in dynasty leagues. Scott Engel looks at some early ADP trends in FFPC startups.
Most seasonal fantasy leagues hold their drafts in the summer. Naturally, participants want to see how preseason player news and trends affect their strategies and outlooks before drafting. For those who play in dynasty leagues, though, the focus is on the longer term, and that means the drafting windows open earlier. Once the NFL Draft concludes, dynasty drafting season fully begins.
The Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) is your ultimate destination for dynasty drafting. Startup dynasty leagues are now forming at all entry fee levels and in various formats to suit your desires. You can join an FFPC dynasty league today, and I personally enjoy the slow draft format very much, as it provides regular anticipation of preparing to make new picks every day.
Here is an early look at some spotlighted players from the RotoBaller FFPC Average Draft Position Reports. I have chosen to feature players who I see as being overdrafted or underrated based on the latest standard dynasty ADPS early in the NFL preseason.
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FFPC Fantasy Football ADP Trends: Dynasty Startups
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (14.06): Despite coming off an ACL tear, Hall is expected to be ready for the regular season. He is the second RB off the board in FFPC dynasty drafts, as he should develop into a significant focal point of the Jets’ offense over the next two seasons. Despite the acquisition of Aaron Rodgers, the running game will be an important staple of the New York offense.
Still, I am always wary of expecting the best possible production from an RB in his first season back from a major knee injury. With an eye on winning this season as well as in the future, taking Hall right after Bijan Robinson in a dynasty startup draft is a slightly aggressive move for me.
While age is definitely in Hall’s favor at 22 years old, I will likely not draft him as the second RB overall if I have that option. Pivoting to another position at his spot will be a strong consideration.
“I’m willing to draft Breece Hall after his ADP, but I’m playing it cautiously for now.” pic.twitter.com/Z94JRAmFIB
— Establish The Run (@EstablishTheRun) May 24, 2023
Travis Etienne (30.62), RB, Jacksonville Jaguars: We are already seeing published reports that Etienne may see a reduced workload after taking 74 percent of the snaps last season. Fantasy players may have to rely on Etienne more for efficiency in 2023, as D’Ernest Johnson and Tank Bigsby might function as parts of a backfield committee in Jacksonville, causing some fantasy frustration. Those who draft the 24-year-old will be banking on Etienne’s ability to make the most of his touches as a runner and receiver out of the backfield.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (37.78): As a real-life NFL player, I am a fan of Walker, who can score from anywhere on the field. The second-year man improved in terms of consistency later in the 2022 season, but my expectation is that rookie Zach Charbonnet will be a busy complement to Walker. He is a physical type who should help the Seahawks improve on their rank of 20th in third-down conversion percentage last season while getting much quality work.
Charbonnet can get ample goal-line carries, and we may see a near-even timeshare in the Seattle backfield. I am not drafting Walker as a fantasy RB1 in any format.
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys (49.28): While age is a natural major factor in dynasty leagues, I tend to evaluate players in some shorter time windows than others. Much can change in terms of player outlooks within three years, and I don’t downgrade guys who can still have three or more possible good seasons ahead because they are over 25.
Pollard is 26 years old, but he only has 510 carries in four seasons so far in his career. The new featured RB for Dallas may be on the verge of three to four more standout campaigns, and I am all-in on taking him as the 13th RB off the board in FFPC dynasty drafts.
Jaxon-Smith Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks (33.0): This is a clear case where the rookie status and long-term outlook are overemphasized. The Seahawks’ first-round pick likely won’t have enough of an immediate prominent role in the team’s offense to instantly satisfy fantasy dynasty players who draft him as a top WR2. The rookie might operate as a luxury No. 3 WR for Seattle in his first season, and Tyler Lockett still has another good year or two left in him.
The veteran is 31 years old, but that is not quite the end of the quality production line for a WR, as supported by previous studies from the late, great Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros. Smith-Njigba may not be able to surpass Lockett in output for a year or two, and drafting him too early can lead to disappointment in 2023 and possibly 2024.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos (58.2): This is an intriguing target who can pay off nicely in the next two seasons. Jeudy is 24 years old, and with Sean Payton coming into Denver, we might see a true breakthrough year from Jeudy in the next year or two. Russell Wilson has a legitimate chance to bounce back to respectability this season, and if he doesn’t, a new Denver QB could help Jeudy start to tap more into his tremendous potential in 2024.
Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans (61.92): I am targeting Burks as a riser in all formats. He has little competition for volume in the Tennessee passing game, and he can start to develop a longtime and healthy on-field rapport with Will Levis as soon as this season.
Jonathan Mingo, WR, Carolina Panthers (120.22): The Carolina rookie is one of my favorite FFPC dynasty values at wide receiver. I believe he can instantly become worthy of starting fantasy consideration at some point in his rookie year. Adam Thielen is past his prime and the unreliable D.J. Chark is living off the reputation of one good season in 2019. Mingo is a sizable target who can quickly become a frequent target for Bryce Young.
Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans (132.44): The former Cowboy is not being picked in the top 15 at his position in a TE-premium format in the FFPC. Schultz can be a terrific bargain, as he will be 27 this season and is capable of delivering at least three to four more good seasons if he clicks with CJ Stroud. The Texans’ rookie apparently lacks reliable WR weapons and may lean frequently on his TE as some young QBs do.
Even more interesting that Dalton Schultz (130) is going in the same range as these guys.
Rookie QBs like their safety blankets, and Schultz's main target competition in 2023 will be *checks notes* 31-year-old Robert Woods 👀 https://t.co/gmA1WIUr8W
— 𝔽𝔽𝔸 🏈 𝐌𝐄𝐍𝐆 (@FFA_Meng) May 23, 2023
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (24.76): As I noted in my Fantasy Football QB Burning Questions column, Jackson may be on the verge of a top 3 fantasy QB season in 2023. He finally has been surrounded by a quality crew of playmakers at WR. While Jackson’s rushing attempts might be trimmed, he will still be a potential top dual-threat, and the former MVP is 26 years old. That age marker gives him a minimum possible range of five more years as a top fantasy starter.
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (25.4): As the eighth QB off the board behind Jackson, Fields is a very good target for even more added upside, as soon as this season. He has more rushing promise than Jackson, and I rank the two of them right near each other in most formats.
I slightly prefer Fields over the Ravens' star for dynasty purposes, as the addition of D.J. Moore bumps Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool down the depth chart into more natural spots, while Cole Kmet can still improve. The supporting cast looks better for Fields and he can potentially certify himself as a top 4 fantasy QB in the next two seasons.
Daniel Jones (74.3): Jones was a top 10 fantasy QB last year and he should perform in that range again this season. The Giants have invested in him with a new contract and more playmaking options, most notably Darren Waller and Jalin Hyatt, one of my favorite value plays at WR in dynasty leagues. Jones is also 26 years old and he is a good value as the 15th QB off the board in FFPC dynasty drafts.
Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.
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