5 Running Back Fantasy Football Draft Avoids: Overvalued RBs to Fade

Dave's running back busts for 2025 fantasy football leagues. His overvalued RBs and draft avoids, including Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamra, and more.

As summer winds down, we are drawing ever closer to the beginning of another fantasy football season. With this upcoming weekend being the final one before the start of the 2025 NFL season, many leagues will host their annual fantasy football draft.

While much of fantasy gamers' draft preparation focuses on which players to draft, it’s equally important to analyze which players to avoid on draft day, too. This is especially true when it comes to running backs. The position offers legendary upside, and if you hit on the right backs, it can be all you need to win your league. However, if you whiff entirely on the position, it can put your team behind the eight ball right out of the gate.

So, which running backs are potential landmines for fantasy gamers this year? Let’s go over a few candidates. Here are five potential running back busts that you should fade in your 2025 fantasy football draft.

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Saquon Barkley - Philadelphia Eagles

Barkley was a league-winning pick for gamers in 2024 as he ran for over 2,000 yards and scored 15 total touchdowns.

SAQUON ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!

📺: #WASvsPHI on FOX
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/26534Ls9Mx

— NFL (@NFL) January 26, 2025

As a result, Barkley has consistently been one of the first players taken in drafts this summer. However, managers may want to pump the brakes on a repeat of last season. He is coming off a career-high 482 touches (including the postseason) last year. That is an insane amount of touches for any running back.

We have long seen a dip in production the year after a back runs for over 2,000 rushing yards or has 400+ touches. Unfortunately, Barkley checks both these boxes. He also struggled with injuries earlier in his career with the New York Giants. Considering the amount of volume Barkley received last year, this issue may rear its ugly head again in 2025.

Playing behind Philadelphia’s offensive line, Barkley remains in an ideal situation for fantasy success, but there are legitimate reasons for concern in 2025. It might be a safer move to select Ja’Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs instead of Barkley at the top of drafts.

James Conner - Arizona Cardinals

2025 is Conner’s age 30 season. That is noteworthy because this is an age where running back production often experiences a steep decline. Conner does have an injury history and set a career high in touches last year, too. Given his age, he could be at a higher risk for injury in 2025.

There have also been some murmurs that Arizona wants to further incorporate second-year back Trey Benson into the team’s offense. We will have to see if that comes to fruition, but it feels noteworthy given Connor’s age and injury history. While he’s been a value in drafts the last two years, there is more risk in drafting Conner in 2025. It is wise to target other options in his range of fantasy drafts.

Joe Mixon - Houston Texans

As we draw closer to the start of the season, we still don’t have a clear picture of what type of ailment is bothering Mixon, and we don’t have a clear timeline to return to the field. All we know is that this is some foot injury, and Mixon will miss the first four games of the year.

Texans are not activating running back Joe Mixon by Tuesday’s 4 pm ET deadline, making him ineligible to play at least the first four games this season due to an ankle injury.

Mixon will be moved to Reserve/Non-Football Injury, which automatically rules him out for at least… pic.twitter.com/i0GaVsJslA

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 25, 2025

This is quickly becoming a highly concerning situation. Fewer unknowns are usually better for fantasy drafters. There’s a lot of uncertainty regarding Mixon’s injury, and we really don’t have any details.

Even if we remove the injury concerns, there are still other reasons to avoid Mixon. Houston completely revamped its offensive line this offseason, and it’s hard to say this unit will be any better than it was a year ago. Despite being a dependable back for fantasy purposes, Mixon also did not fare well in several advanced metrics last year.

Among 46 backs with 100+ attempts, Mixon finished 37th in both PFF elusive rating and Fantasy Points Data Suite’s missed tackles forced per attempt. These metrics indicate Mixon struggled to create yards beyond what the offensive line made for him. Playing behind what could be an even worse offensive line this year could be a massive problem for Mixon.

Combine Mixon's injury with the fact that he is now 29 years old, and he becomes one of the more clear fades at running back this year. Nick Chubb is reportedly in line to take over RB1 duties in Mixon's absence. Chubb was a great player for the Cleveland Browns, but a devastating knee injury two years ago has left him a vastly different player.

That could mean the preferred way for gamers to attack this backfield is through veteran Dameon Pierce or rookie Woody Marks.

Alvin Kamara - New Orleans Saints

After the sudden retirement of quarterback Derek Carr, the 2025 Saints feel like a team in transition with an eye toward 2026. New Orleans will trot out some combination of Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, and Jake Haener at quarterback. That could mean bad things for the team’s offense, and it will also affect Kamara in a negative light.

Although he ran for a career-high 950 rushing yards last year and finished 2024 as the PPR RB9, Kamara once again scored poorly in several advanced metrics. Among 47 RBs with 90+ carries, Kamara finished 38th in PFF elusive rating, 37th in Next Gen Stats rush yards over expected (RYOE), and 31st in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s missed tackles forced per attempt.

He also failed to crack 4.2 yards per carry for the fourth consecutive season. All of this continues to indicate Kamara is a declining player.

At some point, his poor metrics will catch up to him. Throw in the fact that the Saints' offense will be a complete mess, and it’s unlikely Kamara maintains the same level of production he showed last year. Stay far away from this offense in your drafts.

David Montgomery - Detroit Lions

Montgomery is coming off a 2024 season where he scored double-digit rushing touchdowns for the second straight year.

David Montgomery stays on his feet for the TD! 🔥

📺: #DETvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/GaSgaYdTxz

— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2024

While many managers consider Montgomery a value due to his role in Detroit's offense, there is a possibility that Gibbs continues his ascent and completely takes this backfield away from the veteran. Head coach Dan Campbell might be a huge Montgomery advocate. Still, there’s no denying that Detroit’s offense was considerably more explosive last year when Gibbs was the featured back in Montgomery’s absence.

Detroit’s offensive line could also take a massive step backward after center Frank Ragnow unexpectedly retired this offseason. Montgomery has benefited from better offensive line play since he arrived in Detroit. If this unit performs poorly, then Montgomery’s efficiency likely regresses to what we saw during his days playing for the Chicago Bears.

That would be highly problematic for his fantasy value since he is already splitting carries with Gibbs.

Montgomery also scored a ridiculous 12 rushing touchdowns on just 185 attempts in 2024. This is also likely to regress, and Montgomery could actually underperform in this department if Detroit’s offense as a whole takes a step back without Ben Johnson calling plays.

The seventh year back has been a reliable option each of the last two seasons, but 2025 could be a year where he disappoints. It just feels like there are more scenarios where Montgomery disappoints rather than hits. Consider other options on draft day.

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