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Mike Fanelli's first 2023 NFL Mock Draft of the year. He predicts the round 1 draft picks, and which players will be selected in the first round.
The 2023 NFL Draft is less than five weeks away, and the rumor mill is on fire. With free agency winding down, team needs have changed for every club.
Usually, there are 32 first-round picks in the NFL Draft. However, this year’s draft will only have 31 first-round selections. The Miami Dolphins had to forfeit their first-round pick after an investigation revealed they violated league policies.
Many mock drafts don’t have trades in them. However, the NFL Draft has multiple first-round trades every year. Therefore, this mock draft will include five hypothetical trades.
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The Top 10: Four Quarterbacks Off The Board
1) Carolina Panthers (via Chicago) – C.J. Stroud (QB – Ohio State)
After making a blockbuster trade deal with the Chicago Bears, the Panthers will take a quarterback with the first overall pick. The only question is, which quarterback will they draft? The betting market has Stroud as the heavy favorite to be the selection. Furthermore, Carolina is reportedly leaning toward the former Ohio State star.
2) Houston Texans – Bryce Young (QB – Alabama)
Houston screwed themselves out of the No. 1 overall pick in Week 18 with their win over the divisional rival Indianapolis Colts. The Texans stayed put despite speculation that they would trade up to the No. 1 pick with the Bears. While some might have concerns over Young’s size, that’s not enough to stop Houston from drafting the former Alabama superstar.
*** TRADE ALERT ***
Indianapolis Colts receive pick 3. Arizona Cardinals receive picks 4, 79, 106, and 2024 third-round pick.
3) Indianapolis Colts (via Cardinals) – Anthony Richardson (QB – Florida)
Rather than watching the Cardinals trade this pick to another quarterback-needy team, the Colts happily flip a few mid-round selections to secure Richardson. While some want them to trade for Lamar Jackson, the Colts are a rebuilding team and should add a rookie instead. Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew can start until Richardson is ready to play.
4) Arizona Cardinals (via Colts) – Will Anderson (EDGE – Alabama)
The Cardinals could have traded down farther with a team like the Tennessee Titans or Las Vegas Raiders. However, this way, they add multiple draft picks to jump-start their rebuilding project. More importantly, Arizona still lands the best non-quarterback prospect in the draft.
5) Seattle Seahawks (via Denver) – Tyree Wilson (EDGE – Texas Tech)
While Seattle could consider a quarterback with this pick, giving up Wilson might be too difficult. Last year Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor led the team with 9.5 apiece. However, both are entering the final year of their contracts, and the Seahawks need more long-term help at edge rusher. Wilson has as much physical upside as any edge rusher in the draft this year.
*** TRADE ALERT ***
Tennessee Titans receive pick 6. Detroit Lions receive picks 11, 41, and 2024 second-round pick.
6) Tennessee Titans (via Lions, Los Angeles) – Will Levis (QB – Kentucky)
Tennessee is at a crossroads. While they have committed to Ryan Tannehill for the 2023 season, the veteran is entering the final year of his contract. Furthermore, he will turn 35 years old in July. The Titans have to figure out their long-term plan at quarterback. With the Raiders on the clock next, Tennessee moves up to secure the last top-tier quarterback prospect.
7) Las Vegas Raiders – Jalen Carter (DL – Georgia)
Despite signing Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, the Raiders could still draft a quarterback. The veteran’s contract has an out in it after the 2023 season. However, Las Vegas turns their attention to the defense with no quarterback with the selection on the board. Carter was once considered a potential No. 1 overall pick. Unfortunately, off-the-field concerns and a poor workout have hurt his draft stock, pushing him into the back half of the top 10.
8) Atlanta Falcons – Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – Ohio State)
Many expected the Falcons to be aggressive spenders this offseason as they had the second-most cap space heading into free agency. However, Atlanta invested most of their resources in defense. Unfortunately, their receiving core is still in awful shape. While the addition of Mack Hollins is solid, it shouldn’t be enough to keep the Falcons from adding a wide receiver early in the draft.
9) Chicago Bears (via Carolina) – Nolan Smith (EDGE – Georgia)
After their blockbuster deal with the Panthers, the Bears can go in several directions with this pick. If Smith-Njigba was still on the board, Chicago would be foolish to pass on him. However, they turn to the defense with the receiver already picked. Smith had a historic performance at the NFL Combine and should be a top-10 pick.
10) Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans) – Peter Skoronski (OL – Northwestern)
The Eagles could be a prime trade spot with this pick. However, they can pass on Skoronski. The former Northwestern star might be the most versatile offensive lineman in the draft. Many believe Skoronski can play all over the line in the NFL, but his best position is at guard. After losing two offensive linemen in free agency, including a starter, Philadelphia needs to replenish its depth.
Picks 11-20: Offensive Linemen Galore
11) Detroit Lions (via Titans) – Christian Gonzalez (CB – Oregon)
Detroit managed to trade back and still land a potential target they could have taken sixth overall. The Lions improved their secondary in free agency, adding Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton, and Emmanuel Moseley. However, Jeff Okudah has struggled with injuries in his career, and the team has to decide whether or not to pick up his fifth-year option soon. Either way, the Lions still need a No. 1 cornerback they can count on with Justin Jefferson and DJ Moore in the division.
12) Houston Texans (via Cleveland) – Myles Murphy (EDGE – Clemson)
While all the talk in Houston has been on which quarterback they will draft, the Texans have a massive need on defense. Last year, Jerry Hughes led the team with nine sacks. However, he will turn 35 years old before the start of next season. Furthermore, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo was the only other player with more than 3.5 sacks last year. Unfortunately, he signed with the Cleveland Browns in free agency.
*** TRADE ALERT ***
Green Bay Packers receive pick 13. New York Jets receive Aaron Rodgers, conditional 2024 draft pick.
13) Green Bay Packers (via Jets) – Paris Johnson Jr. (OT – Ohio State)
Trade talks between the Jets and Packers are going in circles. However, the two sides will likely agree to a deal that gives Green Bay the 13th overall pick while providing the Jets with a complicated conditional 2024 draft pick based on how well Rodgers plays next year and if he retires in the offseason.
Meanwhile, the Packers don’t have a significant need at left tackle but should prepare for the future. David Bakhtiari has missed 22 games over the past two years. While he is under contract this year, Green Bay will almost certainly release the left tackle next offseason. Johnson is an elite pass protector. He can start his career at right tackle before replacing Bakhtiari in 2024.
14) New England Patriots – Broderick Jones (OT – Georgia)
New England used their first-round pick last year on Cole Strange. He had a solid rookie year, but the offensive line still needs work. Trent Brown is entering the final year of his deal, while Riley Reiff signed a one-year deal this offseason. Jones has as much potential as any offensive tackle in the draft class. The Patriots can slide Brown back to right tackle and start Jones at left tackle as a rookie.
15) Green Bay Packers – Brian Branch (DB – Alabama)
The Packers have used 11 of their past 12 first-round selections on defense, with the only exception being Jordan Love in 2020. Meanwhile, Branch feels like a Green Bay player. He can play multiple spots in the secondary. With Darnell Savage heading into the last year of his rookie deal, the team needs help at safety.
16) Washington Commanders – Devon Witherspoon (CB – Illinois)
While some thought Washington would be in the mix for a quarterback this offseason, the team will give Sam Howell a shot at starting next year. The Commanders made several moves in free agency, mostly on offense. However, they still need help at cornerback. Witherspoon is one of the most physical players in the draft this year, regardless of position.
17) Pittsburgh Steelers – Joey Porter Jr. (CB – Penn State)
After losing Sutton to the Lions in free agency, the Steelers signed veteran Patrick Peterson. However, he turns 33 in July and isn’t a long-term solution at cornerback. More importantly, the AFC North has several elite wide receivers. Pittsburgh needs a cornerback capable of defending Ja’Marr Chase and Amari Cooper. Furthermore, the Penn State cornerback is the son of Steelers legend Joey Porter Sr.
18) Detroit Lions – O’Cyrus Torrence (iOL – Florida)
When the Lions traded Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams, Jared Goff was sent back to Detroit allegedly for salary cap reasons. However, the former No. 1 overall pick played well enough last year to likely keep the team from drafting a quarterback this year. Instead, Detroit continues to beef up its offensive line with Torrence. Meanwhile, both starting guards are entering the final year of their contracts.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Darnell Wright (OT – Tennessee)
Following Tom Brady’s second retirement, the Buccaneers are undergoing a rebuilding process. They released former franchise left tackle Donovan Smith before the start of free agency. While some believe the team will move Tristan Wirfs to left tackle, Tampa Bay would be better off drafting Wright. Some believe the former Tennessee star tackle is the top pass protector in the draft class.
*** TRADE ALERT ***
New York Giants receive pick 20. Seattle Seahawks receive picks 25, 89.
20) New York Giants (via Seahawks) – Jordan Addison (WR – USC)
The Giants made a surprising move, trading a late third-round pick to the Raiders for Darren Waller. However, they haven’t fixed their problem at wide receiver. Instead of pursuing a No. 1 caliber receiver, New York re-signed Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton while adding Parris Campbell and Jamison Crowder. The Giants fix that problem by trading ahead of several wide receiver-needy teams for Addison.
Picks 21-31: A Fifth Quarterback Drafted
21) Los Angeles Chargers – Bijan Robinson (RB – Texas)
Fantasy players won’t like this selection, but it makes sense for the Chargers. Austin Ekeler has been a superstar over the past few years. However, he turns 28 next month and has 587 touches over the past two seasons. More importantly, Ekeler has been a bargain for the team’s salary cap. Unfortunately, Los Angeles can’t afford to sign Ekeler to a massive extension, given their cap situation. Instead, they replace him with arguably the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley.
22) Baltimore Ravens – Kelee Ringo (CB – Georgia)
Baltimore has two massive needs heading into the draft: cornerback and wide receiver. After the Giants traded up for Addison, the Ravens turn their attention to cornerback. Marcus Peters remains unsigned, while the team missed out on Darius Slay. However, Ringo is an excellent consolation prize.
*** TRADE ALERT ***
Kansas City Chiefs receive pick 23. Minnesota Vikings receive picks 31, 95, 122.
23) Kansas City Chiefs (via Vikings) – Lukas Van Ness (EDGE – Iowa)
The Chiefs currently have 10 picks in the draft this year. Therefore, expect them to be aggressive in trading up on draft day. By comparison, the Vikings have only five picks heading into the draft, so a trade between these two teams makes perfect sense. Meanwhile, the Chiefs released Frank Clark this offseason. With several potential edge rusher-needy teams picking ahead of them, Kansas City moves up to secure the Iowa star.
24) Jacksonville Jaguars – Adetomiwa Adebawore (EDGE – Northwestern)
Despite spending their first-round pick last year on Travon Walker, the Jaguars still need help at edge rusher. Arden Key and Dawuane Smoot combined for 9.5 sacks last year. However, Smoot remains unsigned, while Key signed with the Titans this offseason. Furthermore, Josh Allen is heading into the final year of his rookie deal.
25) Seattle Seahawks (via Giants) – Hendon Hooker (QB – Tennessee)
This selection is my surprise pick of the mock draft. If the Seahawks don’t take a quarterback with their early first-round selection, expect the team to trade back from the 20th overall pick and target Hooker. The former Volunteer was a first-round lock before suffering a torn ACL. Meanwhile, he was one of the top deep ball throwers in college football. More importantly, Seattle can let Geno Smith start in 2023 before handing the keys to Hooker in 2024.
26) Dallas Cowboys – Michael Mayer (TE – Notre Dame)
When the Cowboys placed the franchise tag on Tony Pollard, it signaled the end of Dalton Schultz’s time in Dallas. The veteran tight end signed a one-year deal with the Texans, leaving the Cowboys with a hole at tight end. While they spent a fourth-round pick on Jake Ferguson, that shouldn’t stop Dallas from adding Mayer to Dak Prescott’s receiving core.
27) Buffalo Bills – Zay Flowers (WR – Boston College)
Buffalo has a significant need at wide receiver. Stefon Diggs has struggled in the playoffs over the past two years. Meanwhile, Gabe Davis hasn’t turned into the star everyone projected. Furthermore, he is heading into the final year of his rookie contract. While the team added a few cheap veterans in free agency, that shouldn’t stop them from adding Flowers.
28) Cincinnati Bengals – Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – Alabama)
This pick came down to two options for the Bengals: Gibbs and Darnell Washington. However, the team recently signed Irv Smith Jr. in free agency, some mitigating their need at tight end. Meanwhile, Samaje Perine signed with the Denver Broncos in free agency. More importantly, Joe Mixon had a disappointing 2022 season and could be a cap casualty, depending on what the Bengals do during the draft.
29) New Orleans Saints (via Denver, Miami, San Francisco) – Calijah Kancey (DL – Pittsburgh)
The Saints signed Derek Carr before free agency started, filling their top need. New Orleans started five quarterbacks over the past two years. Unfortunately, the team did lose both starting defensive tackles in free agency. While they sign some replacement options, Kancey would be a significant upgrade. He ran a 4.78 unofficial 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. However, Kancey was clocked at a blazing 4.67 official time.
30) Philadelphia Eagles – Trenton Simpson (LB – Clemson)
While the Eagles were able to keep several of their top free agents this offseason, they couldn’t hold onto multiple starters on defense. Two of those starters were linebackers, T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White. Last year the team used a third-round pick on Nakobe Dean. He will have a significant role this year. However, Philadelphia still needs help at linebacker. Simpson shouldn’t have made it this far, but the Eagles will gladly add the Clemson star to their defense.
31) Minnesota Vikings (via Chiefs) – Quentin Johnston (WR – TCU)
After trading back and adding two draft picks, the Vikings still fill their top need. Adam Thielen was a cap casualty, creating a hole at wide receiver. While K.J. Osborn has flashed potential, he is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Minnesota must add someone to keep defenses from double-teaming Jefferson on every play.
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