RADIO
Hello and welcome to many of you for the last FAAB run of the year. With championships in the crosshairs and no massive shake-ups to most teams, you'll want to be aggressive and make sure to prioritize your needs if short on funds. Ordering your $0 bids appropriately is critical. Note your opponent's budget and I hope you play in a league that locks eliminated teams from moves! Let's get it.
Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, and our free new Who Should I Pickup? Waiver Wire comparison tool, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable causes for a manual override. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 17.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Gardner Minshew (QB, PHI) - FAAB Bid: 5-10%
27% rostered
Minshew gave Philadelphia a fighting chance against Dallas with 355 passing yards and three total touchdowns to go with three turnovers. Most of us will stomach the turnovers when it comes with pushing the pace and a trio of touchdowns.
We’ve known him to be aggressive and we saw that again, with plenty of fantasy upside provided by A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert around him. Week 17 against New Orleans is not an easy matchup but the Eagles are so high-powered that he remains a viable streamer.
Mike White (QB, NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 5-10%
17% rostered
White has been cleared to play in Week 17 and that makes him a solid add going into Seattle. The Seahawks’ secondary can ball but White is capable of pushing the pace and overcoming mistakes with volume.
BREAKING: Jets QB Mike White was cleared by the doctors today and will start on Sunday in Seattle, according to a source.
— Brian Costello (@BrianCoz) December 26, 2022
While Seattle hasn’t given up 300 passing yards in a game since Week 4, they’ve allowed opposing quarterbacks to score six touchdowns with zero interceptions in the last three weeks.
Baker Mayfield (QB, LAR) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
9% rostered
Mayfield picked apart the Broncos on Christmas, going 24-of-28 for 230 yards and two scores as Cam Akers ran through the defensive line at will. He isn’t turning in QB1 ceilings but the familiarity with his offense appears to be growing.
The Rams have a tall task against the Chargers in a battle for LA next week, but he’s gone from “Superflex only” to mid-range streamer for the affair.
**Keep an eye on Teddy Bridgewater (0% rostered) with Tua Tagovailoa once again in concussion protocol after reporting symptoms on Monday.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Zack Moss (RB, IND) - FAAB Bid: 50-100%
44% rostered
The Colts failed to do much on Monday night with Nick Foles, but Moss was easily the No. 1 RB. I really thought Deon Jackson’s versatility would be needed but he barely saw the field. It’s shocking the Colts aren’t giving Sam Ehlinger some run in a lost year, but they’re happy to see if Moss is a fit moving forward.
Zack Moss seeing the majority of snaps in most situations. pic.twitter.com/reN0PRSOiF
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) December 27, 2022
With Jonathan Taylor on IR and Jackson seemingly behind Jordan Wilkins for brief backup action, Moss is the top option if still available. They face the Giants next week, an above-average matchup for fantasy RBs, who could provide a payoff for 15-20 Moss touches.
Royce Freeman (RB, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 10-20%
0% rostered
It wasn’t pretty, but Freeman led the RB room with 16 carries and a reception for 38 total yards in Week 16. Dare Ogunbowale only had eight carries for 28 yards and Rex Burkhead didn’t see a carry, catching two balls for seven yards on the day. Ugly, I know.
But it’s clear Freeman is the guy with no Dameon Pierce to break three tackles on each play. Desperate teams should scoop Freeman and pray for pass interference in the end zone to grant a goal-line plunge against Jacksonville in Week 17.
Hassan Haskins (RB, TEN) - FAAB Bid: 10-20%
0% rostered
Derrick Henry didn't practice on Monday due to a hip injury, which puts Haskins into play. Week 17 has no impact on Tennessee's playoff hopes, with their Week 18 tilt against Jacksonville holding their fate.
The Titans rested Henry back in 2019 when faced with a similar scenario. The offense isn't humming with Malik Willis still finding his footing in the NFL, but a small avenue toward RB starting snaps is visible here.
Chase Edmonds (RB, DEN) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
22% rostered
Denver is broken, but at least they’re moving on from Nathaniel Hackett now. Latavius Murray hasn’t done anything wrong and remains the 1A, but Edmonds got more work in the rout to the tune of 53 yards on eight touches.
Garbage time still counts and could provide momentum as the pass-catching back going into Arrowhead next week. If the Rams can put up 51 on the Broncos then just think what negative game script Patrick Mahomes and company will provide.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Jahan Dotson (WR, WAS) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
23% rostered
Dotson’s third straight game with 50 or more yards and a touchdown supplied yet another playoff boost. He’s consistently running with Terry McLaurin as a starter on most of Washington’s snaps, with 15 more snaps and five more routes run than Curtis Samuel.
A turn back to Carson Wentz could bring us back to those first four weeks of 2022 when Dotson emerged as a red-zone favorite with four scores. That he now has some consistent volume in his sails alongside that edge could be a difference-maker in Week 17 versus Cleveland.
Jahan Dotson could be the missing piece to securing that fantasy championship.
Last three games:
18.8 Fantasy PPG
23.76% Target Share
31.05% Air Yard ShareDotson is rostered in only 23% of Yahoo leagues.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) December 27, 2022
Isaiah Hodgins (WR, NYG) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
2% rostered
Hodgins caught 8-of-11 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown in Week 16’s tight loss to the Vikings. That makes three TDs in his last four games as Hodgins is playing himself into a starting role for 2023 and beyond.
Richie James (17% rostered) also caught 8-of-12 targets for 90 yards as the Giants did press Minnesota’s weak secondary for most fantasy players to be happy. Both of them will have a tougher assignment in Week 17 versus Indianapolis, a bottom-10 matchup for fantasy WRs.
Greg Dortch (WR, ARI) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
2% rostered
Dortch went from being a ghost in the box score to stepping up as Trace McSorley’s primary slot man on Sunday night. He saw a season-high 11 targets for 10 grabs, tallying 98 yards while DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown sputtered.
It’s possible Brown’s pre-existing groin injury led to Arizona limiting him through a perimeter rotation with A.J. Green. Either way, Dortch has put up significant numbers when given a starter’s workload. Monitor reports going into Week 17’s date with Atlanta’s vulnerable secondary and decide whether you’ll willing to risk it.
Rashid Shaheed (WR, NO) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
8% rostered
Shaheed somehow saw five targets in a game with 15 passing attempts from Andy Dalton, which speaks to the upside with Chris Olave out. Proving to be more than a raw speedster, Shaheed should be needed against a potent Eagles offense that will challenge NO’s defense.
Others like Demarcus Robinson (19% rostered) and Dante Pettis (0% rostered) also fit the mold of “de facto No. 1 WR in a poor passing-volume offense.”
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
22% rostered
Renfrow looked good on paper with 4-42-1 on seven targets, making the most of entering for passing situations. Still working toward 100% participation, Renfrow only played on 25-of-53 snaps but ran 23 routes.
It’s hard to hang finals hopes on a sharp upward trend in usage against a tough San Francisco defense in Week 17. But I know some don’t have the luxury of deep choices and the 49ers are a cement wall against running backs, allowing the fewest points to opposing RBs. Hope that Renfrow can sit down in holes underneath while SF spotlights Davante Adams.
Kendrick Bourne (WR, NE) - FAAB Bid: 6-10%
1% rostered
It took nearly the entire season for Bourne to recapture the versatile magic shown in 2021, but we finally got it. Week 16 saw Bourne total 100 receiving yards with a touchdown alongside a 29-yard rush. He hadn’t topped 60 total yards in a game all year.
Bourne was elevated with DeVante Parker out once again (concussion) and could see a similar opportunity in Week 17 against Miami. Tyquan Thornton has failed to break out, though he ran 34 routes on 52 snaps. Bourne only had 22 routes on 32 snaps but saw triple the targets. If you need a flier, look for momentum with Bourne.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson (TE, NO) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
31% rostered
Johnson predictably disappeared in the horrible Cleveland weather, catching 1-of-2 targets for nine yards. Luckily, the Saints will have slightly warmer temps in Philly for Week 17 where Johnson will look to build on having seven touchdowns in his last eight games.
The Saints don’t have the greatest passing volume but winter storms limited them to 15 pass attempts in Week 16, so I’m acting as if it didn’t happen. Fire Johnson up as a high-end TE2 across 12-teamers in search of the title. As I said, I'm erasing Week 16 for him so this tweet's numbers still hold up (except 31% rostered instead of 21%!):
Juwan Johnson over his last 7 games:
-7 TDs (1st among TEs)
-Five Top-10 Finishes (71%)
-Four Top-5 (57%)
-Two Top-2 (28%)And he's only 21% rostered.
— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) December 20, 2022
Noah Fant (TE, SEA) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
24% rostered
Fant salvaged his Week 16 with a touchdown on a day the Seahawks largely failed. Marquise Goodwin provided a goose egg as the correct answer to “Who steps up next to DK Metcalf with Tyler Lockett out?” was no one.
Realistically, Fant and Goodwin still showed promise in usage but Laquon Treadwell also saw seven targets and Colby Parkinson shared plenty of TE snaps. I’d still lean toward Fant if Lockett can’t go in Week 17 against the Jets, who will push the action more with Mike White at QB.
Shane Zylstra (TE, DET) - FAAB Bid: 0-2%
0% rostered
Zylstra was the 1A tight end for Detroit, with 28 snaps (of 66) and 22 routes run to fuel his 5-26-3 line. Zylstra’s touchdown hat trick created many headaches for those banking on other playmakers to get those points. I’d hate to bank on this moving forward, but I feel obligated to remark on it given the low bar at TE.
Also, look for Tyler Conklin (27% rostered) if Mike White does indeed play, as well as Daniel Bellinger (3%) and Mitchell Wilcox (0%) if you’re desperate on the fringes.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
New York Giants Defense (vs. IND) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
11% rostered
You watched the Colts get demolished by the Chargers, yes? In case you missed it, the Colts surrendered seven sacks with three interceptions served up. It was pathetic at best.
Kayvon Thibodeaux and the Giants should tee off in a similar fashion in Week 17, as the Colts have now given up at least three sacks in five straight. Pressure leads to mistakes. Mistakes lead to points for the defense. Stack against these Colts and profit.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense (at HOU) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
17% rostered
Houston has tightened up in the last three weeks but Jacksonville’s defense is also red-hot in that window. The Jags have 10 sacks, eight turnovers, and a score in that three-game span. Ride the roaring wave and see if they can keep applying pressure as the offense puts the Texans into a hole.
Miami Dolphins Defense (at NE) - FAAB Bid: 1-2%
25% rostered
The Dolphins opened as road favorites in a game sitting around a 21-20 implied score based on sportsbook tallies. The Patriots just yielded four sacks and a lost fumble to Cincinnati in Week 16 after the hilarious Week 15 debacle in Las Vegas.
The Pats haven’t broken 20 offensive points scored in four of their last six. It’s been a while, but Week 1’s game between the two was a thrashing by Miami with two sacks, three turnovers, and a defensive TD.
Detroit Lions Defense (vs. CHI) - FAAB Bid: 0-1%
9% rostered
I know, I know! But you may recall the Lions had three sacks, an interception, and a defensive TD back in Week 10’s game versus Chicago. Some may be in leagues where nearly every viable defense is stashed away, with the Lions being my last line of defense against blind prayers.
While the Bears say they won’t shut Justin Fields down the stretch, we must note he aggravated the injured non-throwing shoulder in Week 16. A dinged Fields could be vulnerable and less mechanically sound on throws for those in dire straits.
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