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Sam Chinitz reviews the 2021 ATC projections for fantasy baseball to identify the biggest surprises for hitters in roto categories (HR, SB, R, RBI).
By their nature, projection systems don’t typically offer many big surprises. Outside of Lucas Giolito’s ZiPS projection, there aren’t many player projections that jump off of the page this season.
Still, even seemingly small surprises can have significant fantasy implications, and it’s worth exploring those surprises. To add an element of objectivity to this analysis, a surprise will be relative to other projection systems. To that end, ATC projections were compared to a straight average of three other projection systems (ZiPS, THE BATX, and Steamer) for each of the five standard hitter categories. The straight average of those three projection systems is called the “aggregate projection system” in this article.
It’s worth noting that ATC is already an aggregate system in that it averages other projection systems, but ATC is more complicated than a straight average, and there were still plenty of surprises to dive into for this article using this methodology. Batting average is the one exception, for which there were no surprises worth examining by this methodology. With that in mind, below are ATC hitter surprises for each category.
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Home Runs
ATC likes Winker more than the other systems by most metrics, but his home run production (and power in general) stands out the most. With ATC giving Winker a group-high .211 ISO, it’s clear that ATC expects Winker’s 2020 power gains to stick more than the other systems do.
From a contact quality perspective, Winker did pretty much everything right in 2020. His estimated average bat speed, dynamic hard-hit rate, and launch angle standard deviation all improved significantly last season. Given that Winker made contact quality improvements in both his power and launch angle and that he had demonstrated strong contact quality when healthy, Winker seems more likely than not to produce closer to ATC’s projection than the aggregate projection of the other systems.
Value-wise, decreasing Winker’s projected home run total from 23 to 19 while leaving the rest of his ATC projection constant takes Winker from being the 108th most valuable fantasy hitter to the 122nd (using the same z-scores based approach mentioned in Giancarlo Stanton’s breakdown). That’s a considerable difference, and fantasy managers should feel comfortable taking Winker towards the top-end of that range based on his ATC projection.
Giancarlo Stanton
ATC is the most skeptical projection system of this group when it comes to Stanton, and it’s the only system projecting Stanton for fewer than 35 home runs in 2021. Part of that (relatively) pessimistic projection is playing-time-related; ATC projects Stanton to accumulate 520 PA in 2021, compared to 580-600 for most of the other systems. ZiPS expects Stanton to pick up a similar 527 PA with 38 home runs, though, and ATC projects Stanton for the lowest wOBA of the group at .358, so playing time doesn’t explain all of ATC’s pessimism.
Given that all of the systems expect similar strikeout and walk rates from Stanton, ATC appears to expect Stanton to either hit fewer fly balls or post a smaller HR:FB (or both) than what is expected from the other projection systems. Regardless, a drop from 38 home runs to 31 is substantial for a hitter like Stanton.
A z-scores based ranking using ATC projections has Stanton as the 84th best fantasy hitter based on his existing projection. Bumping his home runs up from 31 to 38 (with no other changes in his projection) brings Stanton’s projected value up 21 picks.
From a historical perspective, ATC’s projection appears to be the most likely, at least on a per-plate-appearance basis. Posting a home run rate above 6.5% is extremely difficult and correspondingly rare -- even Stanton has only done it three times in his career -- and it’s more likely that Stanton ends up with a home run rate closer to six percent than seven percent as a result.
Stolen Bases
None of the negative ATC surprises are worth discussing here. Although ZiPS playing time outliers resulted in a rookie-skewed negative list in this category, even taking ZiPS out of the aggregate projection system yields no noteworthy players.
ATC is bullish on Berti in almost every respect but differs from the other projection systems most significantly in stolen bases. That difference is primarily driven by two factors: Berti’s expected OBP and his expected playing time.
ATC expects Berti to walk more frequently and post a higher BABIP than the aggregate projection system, resulting in a group-high .341 OBP expectation from ATC. Given that the walk rates differ by less than one point and that Berti’s BABIP and xBABIP have historically been well over ATC’s .322 projection (albeit in a small sample), I’m comfortable siding with ATC on Berti’s relatively high OBP expectation.
That being said, I’m more inclined to agree with the aggregate system’s relatively low projection of Berti’s playing time. Berti is not competing for a starting job this spring, and although he might be able to rack up plate appearances in a backup utility role or take over a starting job midseason, ATC’s playing time projection for Berti is a little too optimistic in my view. As a result, I think Berti probably winds up with a stolen base total closer to 18 than 24 in 2021.
Runs + RBI
ATC is slightly higher on Lowe’s playing time in 2021 compared to the aggregate projection, but ATC is also significantly more bullish on Lowe’s run production per plate appearance. The differences in projection systems here appear to be only partially related to Lowe directly; aside from ATC expecting a few more home runs out of Lowe than the aggregate projection does, ATC and the aggregate projection generally agree on most of Lowe’s individual production.
ATC is the most optimistic of the systems about the wOBAs of Joey Gallo, Nick Solak, and Jose Trevino, though -- three key hitters in the Texas lineup. Since ATC is the outlier in that regard, fantasy managers are probably safer expecting the Rangers to leave Lowe with relatively few run-producing opportunities. Still, ATC’s optimism is intriguing for a potential breakout hitter with a 367 ADP, and he should be on the radar of fantasy managers.
ATC’s pessimism around Mullins’ run production is partly playing-time-related and part team-related, but (somewhat surprisingly in this context) not performance-related as ATC expects Mullins to post a .291 wOBA in 2021 -- mostly in line with or better than the other systems. On the playing time front, ATC projects only 322 plate appearances for Mullins in 2021, 53 PA lower than the next-lowest projection. ATC expects DJ Stewart to take more playing time away from Mullins in 2021 compared to the other systems, and I’m inclined to agree with ATC as Stewart boasts more upside and better offensive projections pretty much across the board compared to Mullins. Still, Stewart only accounts for 15 of Mullins’ “lost” plate appearances, and Mullins probably winds up with somewhere around 350 PA in 2021.
Playing time doesn’t explain the entire difference in projection systems, though, as ATC expects Mullins to collect 0.155 R+RBI/PA while the aggregate system expects 0.208 R+RBI/PA. That’s not a huge difference (about 32 R+RBI per 600 PA), but it’s big enough to warrant examination. It’s not clear exactly why ATC is relatively pessimistic in this regard as the system is relatively high on key Baltimore hitters like Anthony Santander and Trey Mancini, but part of it may be lineup related.
ATC projects Mullins for fewer PA per game than the other systems do (3.92 PA/G from ATC vs. 4.14 PA/G from the aggregate system). Combined with ATC’s relatively low run and RBI projections for Mullins, it seems likely that ATC expects Mullins to hit out of a less desirable lineup slot in 2021 compared to the other systems. Mullins’ production on the basepaths and the generally weak Baltimore lineup makes him likely to lead off in my view, though, so I agree more with the aggregate system in this respect. Overall, though, fantasy managers should expect Mullins to underperform his aggregate projection in terms of runs and RBI because of his likely to be limited playing time, and fantasy managers should keep that in mind heading into drafts.
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