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JB uses his Keeper Player Valuation Formula to rank the top values among Second Basemen (Tier 2) for 2017 fantasy baseball keeper leagues heading into the MLB season.
What's up RotoBallers. Welcome back to my series on keeper leagues. Today I'll be taking a look at second basemen keeper values for fantasy baseball (tier two) for those of you deciding what players to keep for your teams.
Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft round in order to keep a player into the up-coming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as: the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants.
For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used. If you play in a custom league with non-standard configurations, are thinking of keeping a player not on this list, or want to compare players on your team, follow me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB or contact me via the RotoBaller Chat Rooms.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
How My Keeper Valuation Formula Works
The Keeper Values are derived from my 15 step Keeper Valuation Formula. The product is a quanitative depiction of a players ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners needs based on the cost they payed for the player in the previous season (2016 ADP). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player, keeping him at his associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude, will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.
| TIER | SCORE | EXPLANATION |
| 1 | >75 | Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT. |
| 2 | 50-75 | Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept. |
| 3 | 25-49 | You are gaining value with these players, but not as much as your opponents are, potentially. Consider if your options are limited. |
| 4 | 0-24 | Break even point. Minimal value. Only consider if you have a large quantity of Keeper selections. |
| 5 | -99-0 | Keeping these players will hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding any value. Dont waste a Keeper selection here. |
| 6 | <-100 | The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away. |
2017 Top Second Basemen Keeper Values: #3-8
8. Dustin Pedroia, BOS (15th Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 50.69
Who doesn't love the Laser Show? I guess I can understand if you are a Yankees fan. The former Rookie of the Year, MVP, and four time All-Star turned back the clock in 2016 with one of his best performances in years. Pedroia's 201 hits were fourth highest in the league and led to a .318 BA that was his highest since 2008. His 105 R were his highest since 2009, and he smacked 15 HR for the first time since 2012. What I love most about Petey, besides his unmatched tenacity- and that thing he does with is nose constantly, is his plate discipline. He boasts a lowly 9.6 K% and an impressive 0.95 BB/K ratio for his career.
The muddy chicken is just as solid as it gets in fantasy baseball. Last season he hit over .300 against LHP and RHP, Home and Away, and for both halves of the season. He is match-up proof, and even at the tender age of 33 is far from slowing down. Projected to be hitting from atop of the feared Red Sox lineup, Pedroia will again be an excellent source of R and BA at the keystone position in 2017. while returning respectable power.
7. Rougned Odor, TEX (Seventh Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 53.98
Odor powered his way to a breakout season in 2016, highlighted by the most techincally-sound right hook we've ever seen on a baseball diamond. In his first full season in the bigs, Odor smacked 33 HR with a powerful .231 ISO, while scoring 89 R and 88 RBI. To add the cherry on top, he swiped 14 bases and became one of only five hitters in the league to join the 30/10 club.
The standard stat line is impressive, but its even more impressive when considering "Stink" owned the lowest BB% (3.0%) and BB/K ratio (0.14) in the Majors. It was the most R scored by a player with a sub-4 BB% since Adam Jones in 2013. Coincidentally, Jones also hit 33 HR and stole 14 bases that season. I wish I could tell you that with more big league experience that the plate discipline will improve for Odor, but considering he posted a 4.1 and 4.9 BB% in his two previous seasons and swung on 54.3% of the pitches he saw, I would probably be lying. Luckily Odor has shown that he doesn't need a "good eye" to be a top 50 fantasy player, and he will be pushing close to a repeat 30/10 performance in 2017. I just hope you don't play in an OBP league...
6. D.J, LeMahieu, COL (12th Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 54.29
Many fantasy owners including me were doubtful LeMahieu could repeat his 2015 All-Star performance last season, especially after posting a .362 BABIP. So naturally, the man goes out and hits a league high .388 BABIP and wins the NL Batting Title. His .348 BA actually led the entire MLB, and he also added 11 of both HR and SB just for good measure. He essentially transformed into the second coming of Dustin Pedroia. The two second basemen owned almost identical BB/K ratios and contact percentages (LeMahieu's 90.2 Cont% was fourth highest in the league), both are heavy line drive hitters (LeMahieu's 26.6 LD% was sixth highest), both are top 10 opposite field sprayers (LeMahieu leads the league in Oppo% over the last three seasons), and both are excellent defenders.
Once again, I won't say I believe LeMahiue can repeat the absurd BABIP from 2016 this season. But, regardless, he resides in the two hole of what is going to be an absolutely rowdy Rockies lineup in Coors Field, where LeMahieu almost Ted Williams'ed it last year by hitting .391 at home. Oh, and he also has quite the momentum heading into the 2017 season after hitting .363 with a .500 SLG and 1.03 BB/K ratio over the second half of 2016.
5. Jose Altuve, HOU (First Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 56.86
We have reached the pinnacle of second base. For the third consecutive season, Altuve was voted into the All-Star game, won a Silver Slugger award, and led the league in hits (216). He continued to prove he is literally a hitting machine on his way to winning the AL Batting Title with a sexy .338 BA. Altuve has become fantasy baseball gold with his all-around production that goes so much further than his high average. We all knew he could run, I mean he is two SB behind Dee Gordon for the most over the past five seasons. But the dude had a power stroke hidden in his utility belt too?! That's just not fair, the dude is my height and I can barely get the ball out of the infield...
"Gigante" took a giant step forward towards fantasy elite in 2016, as he pounded a career high 24 HR, becoming only one of four hitters last year to hit 20 HR and steal 30 bases. His previous high was 15 HR, which we foolishly found mind boggling, since he previous-previous high was only seven. We were so naive. Like Odor, I am a believer Altuve's 2016 power is legit, as he has slowly transitioned to more of a mini-power hitting profile at the plate. First came the spike in flyballs in 2015, which was then followed by a beautiful eight point increase in line drives last season. He has also become a heavy pull hitter, posting a 45.3 Pull% in back to back seasons. All this combined with a career high 33.8 hard hit percentage, and the HR output makes sense.
Receiving a tier two score from the keeper valuation formula with a first round ADP proves just how valuable Jose Altuve is in fantasy baseball. To put it in perspective, with his 2016 season, he joined Ryan Bruan, Paul Goldschmidt, and Mike Trout (twice) as the only players since 2012 to finish a season with at least 20 HR, 30 SB, 100 R, and 90 RBI.
4. Robinson Cano, SEA (Fourth Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 60.90
Cano has been a fantasy staple at the keystone position since 2006. 2016 was no different as he earned a trip to his seventh All-Star game after hitting .298/.350/.533 with a career high 39 HR and 107 R. The HR total ranked him in the top 10 of the entire league and second at his position. He also knocked in over 100 RBI for the fourth time in his lustrious career, which also ranked him second among second basemen. The best thing Cano has going for him is consistency. Sure his numbers took a dip shortly once he was traded to Seattle, but since 2012 no other player in the MLB has more PA than Cano. He is one of those guys that you have no worries or regrets about after you select him on draft day.
Two statistics I want to highlight for Robinson Cano are his 19.3 HR/FB% and his .299 BABIP. His career average HR/FB% is 14.5, and before last season he only reached 19.3% once, in 2012. A spike in HR made a lot more sense back then when he was playing in Yankee Stadium, the haven for left handed hitters. At SafeCo last year he owned a 16.8%, which I think is a reasonable epectation for 2017 as he begins to age and profiles more into a power hitter. This means a 39 HR repeat is unlikely, but a high 20's output would still return plenty of value, especially with the rise in BA that is coming.
The second statistic, his .299 BABIP, I also find unsustainable, but in a good way. Cano hasn't hit a BABIP below .300 since way back in 2008. Only two other players in the league had a BA above .290 with a BABIP less than .300, Nolan Arenado and Adrian Beltre. Cano certainly has lost much of his hustle, which might be a reason why he's never hurt, as 2016 was his first season with not a single SB in his career. But even with speed a little lacking at his age, he hits far fewer flyballs, and goes up the middle and opposite field more than the other two stars. Bottom line: Cano's career BABIP is .321, and his profile does not fit that of a sub -.300 BABIP hitter. His BA will be back above .300 in 2017, which will help you forget the decrease in HR.
3. Brian Dozier, MIN (Sixth Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 62.42
Wow. What else can you say about the show Dozier put on last season? We all knew he had some pop in his bat, but dayyyyyum. After posting smacking what we thought were respectable HR totals of 23 and 28 in the two previous seasons, Dozier came out just pulverizing baseballs in 2016. He finished with a career high 42 bombs which ranked third in the league. His monstrous .278 ISO (only two points shy of his BABIP!) was the second highest in the league. It wasn't just a HR or nothing type of campaign either, as he notched 35 doubles and five triples to tie for third in the league with 82 XBH. This led to a career high .268 BA and eclipsing the 100 R milestone for the third straight season. Oh and he does a bit of running too, swiping 18 bases. The unbelievable season put him in rare company as he joined Ryan Braun and Curtis Granderson as the only players to hit at least 40 HR with 100 R, 90 RBI, and 15 SB in this decade. Like I said...wow.
So the big question, will the power roll over into 2017? Yes, but not to the same extent. If you look at his batted ball statistics, a couple things stand out. First, he hit the exact same GB/FB ratio as he did in 2015 when he hit 28 HR, and nearly the same contact%. But what he did was increase the QUALITY of his contact on those flyballs. Dozier cut his infield flyball rate down by more than six points, and increased his hard hit percentage by more than five points. His pitch recognition was also much improved, as he saw drastic increases to his values against fastballs, curveballs, and changeups. Plus he is still able to pull the ball more than any other hitter in the league (56.4 Pull%). So with this being said, I believe a fifth consecutive spike in power was imminent, and he will yet again lead second basemen in long balls in 2017. But a repeat of 42? Yeah, I don't see that happening. The first reason I say this is because while he is hitting the ball harder, he is still not hitting the ball hard enough to consitently rep out 40 HR. The only hitter in the league with a lower Hard% than Dozier that hit more than 32 HR was Todd Frazier, and don't get me started on the strange season he had. The second reason is how scorching hot of a second half this man enjoyed last year, which led to slightly inflated numbers. In his last 72 games, Dozier lead the league with 28 HR and an absurd .354 ISO. That certainly can not be sustained, nor will it be replicated in 2017. Take away an unworldly half of a season like this one, and you are looking at a low-to-mid 30's HR/15 SB season with another 100 R to add to his collection.
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